Why the Tech Right Lost Big This Week ·

00:00

Thousands of businesses from early-stage start-ups to Fortune 500s are choosing to build

从早期初创公司到 Fortune 500s，成千上万的企业都在选择用 Framer 来搭建

00:05

their websites in Framer, which changes take minutes instead of days.

自己的网站，把原本要花几天的事变成几分钟。

00:09

Framer is the AI website builder that helps creators teams in businesses ship production

Framer 是一款 AI 网站搭建工具，帮助创作者团队和企业团队更快交付 production-ready 的

00:14

ready sites faster than ever, while getting every detail right.

网站，比以往任何时候都快，同时把每个细节都做好。

00:18

Prompt, inspect, edit, and publish in one place at a whole new pace.

在一个地方完成 Prompt、检查、编辑和发布，以全新的节奏推进。

00:23

Learn how you can get more out of your site from a Framer specialist, or get started building

想了解如何借助 Framer 专家让网站发挥更大价值，或者今天就开始免费搭建

00:27

for free today at framer.com slash hard fork for 30% of a Framer pro annual plan rules and

访问 framer.com slash hard fork，获取 Framer Pro 年度计划 30% 折扣，条款和

00:34

restrictions may apply.

限制可能适用。

00:37

What just happened to Elon Musk?

Elon Musk 到底发生了什么？

00:39

Two years ago the SpaceX founder and world's richest man was riding high.

两年前，这位 SpaceX 创始人、世界首富还春风得意。

00:43

He and the rest of the tech right of Silicon Valley had helped propel Trump into office and

他和 Silicon Valley 的其他科技右翼曾帮助把 Trump 推上台，并且

00:47

had grand plans to reshape the federal government.

有过重塑联邦政府的宏大计划。

00:51

Remember Doge?

还记得 Doge 吗？

00:52

Those plans are now on hold.

那些计划现在都被搁置了。

00:54

Musk once again spent hundreds of millions of dollars this election cycle, but got almost

Musk 这次选举周期又花了数亿美元，但几乎

00:58

nothing in return.

什么都没换来。

01:00

Instead, his allies had among the worst losses of their lives, and he became one of the

相反，他的盟友们遭遇了他们人生中最惨重的几次失败，而他则成了本轮周期一些最关键选战中的主要反派之一。

01:04

main villains of some of the cycle's most important races.

在今天的节目里，我们要深入聊聊中期选举，试着弄清楚到底发生了什么。

01:07

On today's episode, we're going to dive into the midterms and try to figure out what happened.

这次选举是对 Musk 和他那帮 Silicon Valley 亿万富翁的否定吗？

01:11

Was this election a repudiation of Musk and his cadre of Silicon Valley billionaires?

是对全国各地不断冒出的 data centers 里 AI build out 的一场公投，还是对科技行业一直在大力兜售的加速 AI 未来的彻底拒绝？

01:15

A referendum on AI build out in the data centers cropping up around the country, or an entire

Elon Musk 怎么会输得这么惨？

01:20

rejection of the accelerating AI future that the tech industry has been aggressively selling?

那他接下来会怎么做？

01:25

How did Elon Musk lose so badly?

埃隆·马斯克怎么会输得这么惨？

01:27

And what will he do next?

那他接下来会做什么？

01:30

I'm Max Reed.

我是 Max Reed。

01:31

This is Hard Fork.

这里是 Hard Fork。

01:37

Welcome to Hard Fork.

欢迎来到 Hard Fork。

01:38

I'm joined by Aaron Griffith and Ezra Klein.

今天和我一起的是 Aaron Griffith 和 Ezra Klein。

01:40

Aaron is a tech writer for The New York Times and Ezra is, I believe, a podcaster who's

Aaron 是 The New York Times 的科技记者，而 Ezra，我相信，是一位从 28 楼被派来跟我们聊政治的播客主播。

01:45

been sent to us from the 28th floor to talk about politics.

现在距离民主党人重新夺回国会已经有一段时间了，而我真正想聊的、一直在想的，就是我们所谓的 tech right？

01:48

It's now been a little while since the Democrats retook Congress, and the thing I really want

现在民主党重新夺回国会已经有一段时间了，而我真正想要的那件事

01:52

to talk about, the thing I've been thinking about is what we have called the tech right?

要聊的话，我一直在想的是我们称之为tech的那个东西，对吧？

01:57

So I'm talking about a very highly visible group of Trump supporting executives, founders,

所以我说的是 Trump 支持者中一群非常显眼的高管、创始人、来自 Silicon Valley 的投资人，比如 David Sachs、Mark Andreessen、Palmer Lucky，当然还有 Elon Musk。

02:02

investors from Silicon Valley, people like David Sachs, Mark Andreessen, Palmer Lucky,

那是两年前的事了，感觉像是 Trump 联盟里最有势力的一个派系。

02:08

and of course Elon Musk.

他们能主导新闻和注意力。

02:10

This was two years ago, felt like the most powerful faction within the Trump coalition.

最重要的是竞选捐款。

02:16

They were able to dominate news and attention.

可以说，他们帮忙把 JD Vance 推上了副总统的位置。

02:19

Most of all campaign contributions.

选举之后，他们某种程度上被安排负责联邦政府预算。

02:20

They arguably helped elevate JD Vance to the vice presidency.

可以说他们帮助提升了JD Vance成为副总统的地位。

02:24

After the election, they were kind of put in charge of federal government budgeting

选举之后，他们某种程度上被安排负责联邦政府的预算工作

02:28

and provision.

以及 provision。

02:30

And now it feels like it's all fallen apart.

而现在感觉一切都崩塌了。

02:33

Both of you guys are close observers of the tech industry, and I wanted to see how you

你们俩都是科技行业的密切观察者，我想看看你们

02:36

would characterize what happened this week to this growing conservative movement of leaders.

会如何描述这周发生在这个日益壮大的保守派领导者运动身上的事。

02:42

Ezra, what do you think happened to the tech right?

Ezra，你觉得科技右翼发生了什么？

02:45

Well, it attached itself to Donald Trump.

嗯，它依附上了 Donald Trump。

02:49

This is a place I think we're at least in part.

我觉得，这至少有一部分是我们现在所处的位置。

02:52

Their success became a failure.

他们的成功变成了失败。

02:55

The tech right is not the reason that Trump layered the world in tariffs.

科技右翼并不是特朗普对全世界层层加征关税的原因。

02:59

It is not the reason that he went to war in Iran.

也不是他对伊朗开战的原因。

03:03

But it is at least part of the reason why he has a hideously unpopular position on AI.

但这至少部分解释了他为什么在 AI 上持有一个极其不受欢迎的立场。

03:08

And I was surprised in the exit polling how important people said AI was to their vote.

而且让我意外的是，出口民调显示人们说 AI 对他们的投票有多重要。

03:13

So 56% said that artificial intelligence and data centers was a crucial or major factor

所以，56% 的人说 AI 和 data centers 是影响他们投票的关键或重要因素。

03:21

in their vote.

57% 的人说 AI 对社会造成的伤害会更大。

03:22

57% said AI would do more to hurt society.

24% 的人说它对社会更有帮助。

03:26

24% said it would help society.

24%的人说它会帮助社会。

03:29

76% opposed to data center in their community.

76%的人反对在他们社区建data center。

03:33

So you're dealing with an issue that people were both in a kind of direct and vibes

所以你面对的是一个人们既从一种直接的角度、又从一种感觉的角度，实际上是在考虑它的问题。

03:37

away, actually like taking into account.

而Trump，因为在这段时间里，他真的完全接受了像David Sachs、Jensen Huang，你知道的，Mark Andrewson等人那种世界观。

03:41

And Trump, because in this period, he has been really bought in on like the David Sachs,

他的观点，以及Republican Party在data center上的观点，就是：放手让他干，能建多少建多少，谁赢了AI谁就赢。

03:47

Jensen Huang, you know, Mark Andrewson, etc., view of the world.

而这让他们在一个某种程度上……的问题上，明显站到了公众舆论的错误一边。

03:50

He his view and the Republican Party brought these view on data centers was let him rip,

他的观点，以及共和党在数据中心问题上带来的这些观点，就是让他放开说，

03:54

build as many of them as you can, whoever wins AI wins.

尽可能多地建造它们，谁赢得AI谁就赢。

03:57

And that put them on sharply the wrong side of public opinion on an issue that sort of

而这让他们在一个问题上站到了公众舆论的严重对立面，这个问题有点像是

04:03

unlike the diffuse issues of costs or the war in Iran, you could really sometimes like

不像成本或在 Iran 的战争这类分散的议题，你有时候真的可以把 Ohio 的 Huston 这样的具体政客，和某种 data center 引发的反弹联系起来。

04:07

tie a specific politician like Huston in Ohio to like two data center backlash.

而这让 Republicans——也许是不喜欢他们的那些人——最近在这些人身上出现了跨党派的情况。

04:14

And that gave Republicans, maybe who didn't like them, are recent across party lines on

嗯。

04:18

them.

我的意思是，让我问一下先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题。

04:19

Yeah.

AI 是被 Donald Trump 和 tech right 拖累了吗？

04:20

I mean, let me ask the chicken and egg question.

还是说，这其实是 AI 本身在政治上天生就不讨喜，再加上它和这些人物有关联

04:22

Is AI getting dragged down by Donald Trump and the tech right?

AI是被Donald Trump和科技右翼拖累了吗？

04:26

Or is this that AI just has naturally bad politics and its association with these figures

还是说AI本身就天然带有糟糕的政治属性，它与这些人物的关联

04:32

is dragging them down?

是在拖累他们吗？

04:34

I think it's a mistake to think that the only reason we regulate things is to slow them

我觉得，认为我们监管东西的唯一原因就是要拖慢它们、阻止它们，或者因为它们不好，这是个错误。

04:39

down or to stop them or because they're bad.

监管是为了把它们放进一个有点像可信的、至少是半民主的容器里，让人们能安心，并对自己的取舍有信心。

04:43

You regulate things to put them within a like a trustworthy semi, at least semi-democratic

存在这样一种世界：AI 以某种方式铺开，人们觉得负责人已经认真想清楚了风险，想清楚了就业问题，正在搞清楚他们需要搞清楚的事情，也许还会对它更有信任。

04:48

container such that people can make peace and have confidence in their trade-offs.

如此紧密，以至于人们能够接受并对其权衡取舍抱有信心。

04:56

There is a world where AI is rolling out in a way where people think that the folks

存在这样一种可能的世界：AI的推出方式让人们觉得

05:01

in charge have thought through the risk, have thought through the questions of jobs are

掌权者已经深思熟虑过风险，已经深思熟虑过就业问题，

05:06

finding out what they need to find out and maybe have more trust in it.

正在弄清楚他们需要弄清楚的事情，也许人们对它会更有信任。

05:09

In that way, I don't think it's being dragged down by Donald Trump's popularity.

那样的话，我不觉得它被 Donald Trump 的受欢迎程度拖累了。

05:12

I think the problem with AI in terms of popularity is that the basic sell on it is it might kill

我觉得 AI 在人气方面的问题在于，它最基本的卖点就是它可能会杀死所有人。

05:18

everyone.

它很可能会抢走你的工作。

05:19

It probably will take your job.

但如果它没做那些事，你就能用上更便宜的能源。

05:23

But if it doesn't do those things, you're going to have cheaper energy.

它并不是对你想要的技术的一个好描述。

05:25

Like it doesn't, it's not a good like description of a technology you want.

但它在次要层面上的问题是，它推出的时机，那些推出它的人似乎不太可信。

05:30

But the problem it is having on a secondary level, is it rolling out at a time when the

但它在一个次要层面上遇到的问题，是它推出的时机恰逢

05:34

people rolling it out just don't seem trustworthy.

推广它的人似乎就是不值得信任。

05:37

So they have not been subtle or agile or thoughtful about how to manage its risks.

所以他们处理风险的方式，一点也不含蓄、不灵活，也谈不上深思熟虑。

05:44

But that's like been the whole point of this like right-word shift, right, is like all

但这不就是这次右转的全部重点吗？对吧，就是所有 tech 圈的人都特别兴奋：终于可以不用真正在意，可以随便把问题轻描淡写，然后把东西卖给人们，对吧？

05:47

the tech guys are so excited to be able to not have to actually care and like soft pedal

这不就是那种 Trump 2.0 科技右翼的得意劲儿吗？他们就是那种：哈哈，我们这么有权有钱，根本不用说服你，我们直接干，你爱喜欢不喜欢，但我们根本不在乎。

05:53

things and sell them to people, right?

而你也看到了，效果“好极了”。

05:56

Hasn't that just been the gleefulness of this like kind of Trump 2.0 tech right kind

这不就是Trump 2.0科技右翼那种兴高采烈的劲儿吗

06:00

of thing where they're like, ha ha, we're so powerful and rich that we don't have to convince

就是那种感觉，他们好像在说，哈哈，我们太强大太有钱了，根本不需要去说服别人

06:04

you, we'll just do it and you'll like it or you won't, but we don't care.

你，我们就这么干，你喜欢也好不喜欢也罢，但我们不在乎。

06:07

And as you see, it's working out great.

而正如你所看到的，效果非常好。

06:09

Well, I think we're seeing the direct backlash to that, which is like kind of what you're

嗯，我觉得我们正在看到对此的直接反噬，这多少有点像你

06:13

saying, right?

说的那样，对吧？

06:14

Aaron, you were sort of addressing this in the last thing you were saying, but I'm interested

Aaron，你刚才最后说的那部分，多少有点在谈这个，但我感兴趣的是

06:17

in why we feel like the tech, at least this group of tech investors and executives went

为什么我们会觉得科技界，至少这群科技投资者和高管，会

06:23

for Trump so hard in the first place.

一开始就那么拼命地支持 Trump。

06:26

Oh, well, there's a lot of layers to this.

哦，嗯，这事有很多层。

06:31

I mean, you could like, obviously, a lot of them just don't want to see regulation.

我是说，你可以说，很明显，他们很多人就是不想看到监管。

06:36

You can go back to Mark Andreessen's whole thing that he kind of went on this media tour

你可以回溯到 Mark Andreessen 的那一整套东西，他算是搞了一轮媒体巡回宣传

06:41

after he came out for Trump and he was telling this story of the deal, the broken deal,

在他公开支持 Trump 之后，他一直在讲这个交易的故事，这个破裂的交易，

06:46

and you know, the elites are now under attack.

而且你知道，精英们现在正受到攻击。

06:49

And we had this meeting that, you know, may or may not have happened in subsequent reporting,

我们开了这个会，你知道，后续报道里说它可能发生过，也可能没发生过，

06:54

he has called into question that where all the Democrats were saying they were going to

他质疑了那种说法，即所有民主党人都说他们要

06:57

kill AI.

干掉 AI。

06:59

I do think it's also, you know, just a little bit of a cultural thing where it just seemed

我也确实觉得，你知道，这里面也有一点文化因素，就是对他们来说，似乎

07:03

like more fun for them to be edgelord meme kind of posters and like not having to care

更像是当那种发 edgelord 梗图的人更有趣，而且不用去在乎

07:10

about cancel culture and wokeness and all of that.

取消文化、觉醒文化以及所有这些。

07:14

And so I think like on the high level, some of the, a lot of the billionaires and the leaders

所以我觉得，从高层面来讲，一些，很多亿万富翁和行业领袖

07:19

of the industry kind of went to the right and everyone said, oh, well, the rest of the tech

有点转向了右翼，然后大家都说，哦，好吧，那科技行业剩下的

07:22

industry is still very liberal.

人还是很自由派。

07:24

But like, I think over time, that sort of like, you know, an online kind of thing attracted way

但就像，我觉得随着时间推移，那种，你知道的，线上那种东西吸引了

07:31

more people to that side.

多得多的人到那一边。

07:33

And so I'm going to be very interested to see like how that plays out if people kind of just start

所以我会非常有兴趣看看，如果人们就只是开始

07:37

like backing away from, from that vibe.

从那种 vibe 里退缩，那会怎么发展。

07:39

The one thing I want to also just say like just to add on to what I was saying earlier is like

我还想再说一点，就是补充一下我刚才说的，就是

07:44

this idea of like kind of ramming through the tech stuff, regardless of whether people like

这种有点像是不管人们喜不喜欢、都要硬推 tech 那一套的想法，

07:50

it, regardless of sentiment, and like they'll like it on the other side, is like very prominent

不管情绪如何，而且觉得到了另一边他们就会喜欢——这种想法在我聊过的很多 VCs 里非常突出，

07:56

amongst a lot of the VCs that I talked to where they say, well, like people don't like big tech or

他们会说，嗯，人们不喜欢 big tech，或者

08:02

people are don't trust big tech.

人们不信任 big tech。

08:04

But look at their revealed preferences.

但看看他们的 revealed preferences。

08:07

Look at how much they're using Facebook and look at how much they're using Amazon.

看看他们用 Facebook 用了多少，再看看他们用 Amazon 用了多少。

08:10

They actually, and they love their iPhones.

他们其实——而且他们很爱自己的 iPhones。

08:12

They're addicted and like, they're just sort of looking only at the data and saying like

他们上瘾了，而且就像，他们有点只盯着 data，然后说，像是

08:17

because people use AI a lot, because ChatGPT has a billion users around the world.

因为人们大量使用 AI，因为 ChatGPT 在全球有十亿用户。

08:23

Ergo, people are going to like this stuff.

所以，人们会喜欢这东西。

08:24

They might just like, you know, not have the trust or whatever.

他们可能只是，你知道，不太信任或者怎么样。

08:27

But that doesn't matter because people are using it.

但那不重要，因为人们就是在用它。

08:29

And I think this election is actually showing us that that's the wrong way of looking at AI

而且我觉得这次选举其实在告诉我们，那种看待 AI 的方式是错的

08:33

because people obviously are very, very mad about it and to the point where they don't want it.

因为人们显然对此非常非常愤怒，甚至到了不想要它的地步。

08:39

This felt like a decidedly anti-tech election.

这次选举感觉明显是一场反科技的选举。

08:42

But I think we can also separate some of the sentiments that we're contributing to the votes

但我觉得我们也可以把一些我们归因到选票上的情绪拆开来看。

08:46

and the blue tsunami.

还有那场蓝色海啸。

08:47

I heard somewhere that in Japan, because you don't want to call it a blue wave or a tsunami,

我听说在日本，因为不想把它叫成蓝色浪潮或者海啸，他们把它叫做全国大训斥，我觉得这名字好多了。

08:51

they're calling it the national scolding, which I think is so much better.

所以我就叫它全国大训斥。

08:55

So I'll call it the national scolding.

促成这场全国大训斥的因素，

08:57

The factors that went into the national scolding,

让我，我要把这类技术相关的东西分成三个不同类别。

09:00

let me, I'm going to separate this sort of tech stuff into three different categories.

其中一个是你说的这种对 AI 提出来的立场，Aaron。

09:05

One is the sort of brought up position to AI that you're talking about, Aaron.

另一个是那种具体的反 data center 情绪，它确实吸引了很多关注。

09:09

One is the sort of specific anti-data center sentiment that really captured a lot of attention

一种是那种特别具体的反数据中心情绪，确实引起了很多关注

09:15

this summer, that a lot of politicians ran quite hard on.

今年夏天，很多政客都在这个问题上猛打竞选牌。

09:19

And then finally, a kind of general anti-oligarchy, anti-billionaire sentiment that focused in

然后最后，还有一种普遍的反寡头、反亿万富翁情绪，尤其集中在

09:23

particular on Elon Musk, but I think in general on a lot of tech billionaires.

Elon Musk 身上，但我觉得总体上也是针对很多科技亿万富翁。

09:27

I want to take these one at a time and start with the anti-AI sentiment.

我想一个一个来讲这些，先从反 AI 情绪开始。

09:31

And I'm going to play a little bit of John Osso's victory speech from last night.

接下来我要放一小段 John Osso 昨晚的胜选演讲。

09:36

And at our grave peril, humanity is fast forgetting the terrible lessons of two world wars

而我们正身处巨大危险之中，人类正在迅速忘记两次世界大战

09:44

and the Holocaust.

以及 Holocaust 的惨痛教训。

09:47

Meanwhile, the titans of Silicon Valley dig bunkers for themselves and warn that the artificial

与此同时，Silicon Valley 的巨头们给自己挖地堡，并警告说，人工

09:52

intelligence they're creating risks human extinction.

他们正在创造的 intelligence 有让人类灭绝的风险。

09:56

That's pretty strong.

这话挺重的。

09:58

I mean, that's like, you know, I mean, I'm not talking about those new biceps,

我是说，这就像，你知道，我是说，我不是在说那些新练出来的二头肌，

10:02

he's got folks. That is like a real, well, he's getting, he's a lot stronger than he used to be.

他有一帮人。那真的像，呃，他正在变得，他比以前强壮多了。

10:07

I thought that would play a lot harder, but maybe we can cut it out later.

我本来以为那段会更炸，不过也许我们之后可以把它剪掉。

10:11

It's a pretty specific, pretty aggressive. I mean, this is like a speech written by somebody

这挺具体的，也挺冲的。我是说，这就像是某个人写的演讲

10:15

who's on Twitter at the very least who's like, you know, sort of has a strong understanding of AI

这人至少是混 Twitter 的，而且，你知道，算是那种对 AI

10:20

culture, Silicon Valley culture. Ezra, what did you make of this part of Osso's speech?

文化、Silicon Valley 文化有比较强理解的人。Ezra，你怎么看 Osso 演讲里的这部分？

10:25

So at the beginning of the book, Abundance, which Derek Thompson wrote, we have this sort of thing

所以在 Derek Thompson 写的《Abundance》这本书的开头，我们有这么一段关于供给侧政治的内容，里面说核心问题应该是：我们想要更多什么，以及我们怎么得到它？

10:29

about supply side politics where we say the core question should be, what do we want more of

而他们在 AI 上的基本问题是，他们没能说服人们想要更多 AI。

10:35

and how do we get it? And the basic problem that they have on AI is they've not convinced people

他们知道怎么得到它，对吧？

10:40

to want more of it. They understand how you get it, right? Like push all this money to CapEx,

比如把所有这钱砸到 CapEx 上，但没讲清楚你为什么想要它？

10:45

but not why do you want it? And so first, you have all this energy going into that.

所以首先，所有这些精力都投到那上面去了。

10:49

And then the data centers are just big and ugly.

然后 data centers 就是又大又丑。

10:53

And they don't create jobs. And people don't like the construction of industrial

而且它们不创造就业。

10:58

facilities near them, even in normal times, right? It's hard to build an apartment building.

而且人们不喜欢在自己附近建工业设施，哪怕是在正常时期，对吧？

11:02

It's very hard to build, you know, these gigantic systems. So

建造这些巨型系统真的非常难，你知道。

11:07

they seem to have come up with this view that it's not going to matter because people enjoy

所以他们似乎得出了这样一种看法：这不会有什么影响，因为人们喜欢用他们的 chatbot，但这其实会有影响。

11:12

using their chatbot, but it is going to matter. And the reason Osso, but not just Osso. I mean,

原因在 Osso，但不只是 Osso。

11:18

El Sayed had a great, you know, answer on AI pause when he was talking to our former colleague,

我是说，El Sayed 在 60 minutes 上跟我们前同事 Rush Douthid 聊的时候，对 AI pause 给出了一个很棒的、你知道，回答。

11:23

Rush Douthid on 60 minutes. Yeah, he actually knows what distillation is. Yeah, it was very impressive.

是啊，他居然真的知道 distillation 是什么。是啊，这非常令人印象深刻。

11:29

A lot of the frontier research is just spoofing our models. China's research. China's research.

很多 frontier research 其实就是在 spoofing 我们的 models。中国的研究。中国的研究。

11:35

And it'd be like, you know, you're pulling a skier on a boat. And you speed up the boat,

就像，你知道，你在船上拉着一个滑雪者。然后你把船加速，你会觉得，滑雪者还是离得这么近。我们得加速。滑雪者还是离得这么近。

11:40

and you're like, the skier is still so close. We got to speed up. Skier is still so close.

然后你就想，滑雪的人还那么近。我们得加速了。滑雪的人还那么近。

11:44

Well, it's because you're pulling the skier. You know what distillation is, right? This is a

嗯，这是因为你在拉着滑雪者。你知道 distillation 是什么，对吧？这是

11:49

thing that I think younger politicians are really developing expertise on. I can tell you,

一件我觉得年轻政客们真的在积累专业能力的事。我可以告诉你，

11:55

they all understand and believe it will be a central issue in politics going forward. And

他们全都理解并且相信，这将成为未来政治中的一个核心议题。而且

12:00

sort of like everybody else, they're not buying the just don't worry about it. Line. Yeah.

就像其他所有人一样，他们并不买“别担心就行了”那套说法。对。

12:07

Okay, one question on that, though, what do you make of their sort of like answer to like,

好，不过关于这一点有个问题，你怎么看他们那种像是回答一样的说法，比如，

12:13

how did this happen is that AI has a messaging problem, which to me misses the point a little bit

这件事是怎么发生的，是因为 AI 有个信息传达问题，这在我看来有点没抓住重点

12:21

they're sort of reinforcing that like again, what you're saying, like they believe that like,

他们有点在强化这一点，就像你说的，他们相信，比如，

12:25

this is what's best for everyone. And if they if everyone just lets them do it, then like we'll see.

这是对所有人最好的，而且如果他们——如果大家就让他们去做，那我们就走着瞧吧。

12:30

But like if they stick to that, it seems like they do believe it's best for I mean,

但就像，如果他们坚持那样，看起来他们确实相信那是最好的，我是说，

12:34

some of the tech right guys do, but I think one of the most interesting things when I talk to them,

一些科技右翼的人确实这样，但我觉得，当我和他们交谈时，最有趣的事情之一是，

12:38

and I'd be curious how much this this backs up your experience is a lot of the people in AI say

而且我很好奇这在多大程度上印证了你的经验，就是很多 AI 领域的人会说

12:45

publicly and privately. Oh, if I could, I would push the button. I would stop it for now. Yeah.

公开地和私下里。哦，如果我能，我会按下按钮。我会暂时让它停下来。是的。

12:51

And I just don't feel we can. There is this inevitability thesis. There's China. There are the other

而我就是觉得我们做不到。有这种必然性论点。有 China。还有其他的

12:56

companies, right? There's this kind of spirit of technology. And some ways like when Elon Musk

公司，对吧？有这种技术精神。而且在某些方面，就像当 Elon Musk

13:00

talks about it in a very teleological fashion, right? I tried to stop it. It turns out I can't.

以一种非常目的论的方式谈论这件事，对吧？我试过阻止它。结果发现我做不到。

13:05

So it's more fun to be part of it. It is true that some of the tech right people we're talking

所以参与其中更有趣。确实，我们正在谈论的一些科技右翼人士

13:11

about feel that way. And some of them also, you know, don't care or don't see it in existential

对此有那种感受。而且他们中有些人，你知道，也不在乎，或者不把它放在存在主义

13:16

terms. But what people people are hearing from a lot of them and correctly absorbing the lesson

层面上看。但人们从他们很多人那里听到的，并且正在正确地领会这个教训，就像

13:22

as Jon Asif is, I mean, a lot of lab employees are going to Congress and talking to people like

Jon Asif 那样——我是说，很多实验室员工去国会，和像

13:27

awesome and explaining their concerns. That the message I think a lot of us are getting is that

awesome 这样的人交谈，解释他们的担忧。我认为我们很多人接收到的信息是：

13:35

what is pushing this forward is a belief that cannot be stopped.

推动这件事向前发展的，是一种无法被阻止的信念。

13:39

But even the people pushing it forward believe that it could be stopped at least for a while

但即便是推动它向前发展的人也相信，它至少可以在一段时间内被阻止，

13:44

and figured out that would be better. And, you know, so if you don't buy into inevitability

并且想清楚那样会更好。而且，你知道，所以如果你不相信不可避免性，

13:50

and most politicians don't buy into inevitability, then all of a sudden it's like, well, why not try

而大多数政客也不相信不可避免性，那突然之间就会想，好吧，为什么不试试

13:55

place it, slow it down, regulate it, you know, change public opinion on it.

把它落实到位，放慢它，监管它，你懂的，改变公众对它的看法。

13:59

Well, I think there's two groups though. There's like the, there's like the kind of

嗯，不过我觉得有两类人。就是那种，就是那种

14:03

employees that are very worried like what you're talking about, especially at places like

非常担心你刚说的那些东西的员工，尤其是在像

14:07

at the labs. And then there's the investors who I spend a little bit more time with. And they're

实验室这样的地方。然后还有那些我接触得稍微多一点的投资者。他们

14:14

not so worried about the existential risk kind of piece of it. And they're more, they think that

对其中 existential risk 那部分没那么担心。他们更多是，他们觉得

14:19

they don't think it's inevitable because they worry about regulation. And so that's like,

他们不觉得这是不可避免的，因为他们担心监管。所以这就像，

14:23

and they worry about not having the data centers and the compute. And like, so they're kind of on

而且他们担心没有 data centers 和 compute。然后就像，所以他们有点站在

14:28

the flip side of that a little bit. Yeah. And let's talk about data centers for a second. So

这件事的反面一点。对。咱们稍微聊聊 data centers 吧。所以

14:33

Tuesday night, near total route for data centers on basically every level, nearly every local

周二晚上，对 data centers 来说几乎是全面溃败，基本上在每个层面，几乎每个地方公投都对他们不利；

14:38

referendum went against them, but also a bunch of the states that have been building the most

但在一批建设最密集的州里，Democrats 也拿下了控制权，而且往往靠的是反 data center 的政纲。

14:43

intensely, Democrats took control often on anti-data center platforms. But I'm still sort of trying to

但我还是有点想搞清楚这到底有多重要，因为某种程度上，它未必像关税、可负担性、Iran、移民那么突出。

14:49

figure out how big a deal it is because there's a certain amount of like, it's not necessarily

但它显然也一整年都在调动选民。所以我想知道，你觉得 data center 议题对这些结果起了多大推动作用？

14:54

as salient as tariffs, as affordability, as Iran, as immigration. But it also clearly animated

我的意思是，这挺有意思，因为上周我们聊到，你知道，在被问到的 30 多个议题里，它大概排在底部，可能是倒数五名。

15:01

voters all year. So I'm wondering, how big a driver do you think the data center issue was

选民一整年都在关注。所以我想知道，你认为数据中心这个问题在多大程度上是一个驱动因素

15:06

of these results? I mean, it was interesting because last week we talked about how it was like,

这些结果呢？我是说，这挺有意思的，因为上周我们聊到它是怎么样的，就像，

15:10

you know, ranked in the bottom, maybe five out of like 30-some issues when you're asking

你知道，排名垫底，大概在30多个问题里排倒数五名左右吧，当你问的时候

15:16

voters like what they care most about. But it's clear as you're as you're describing that

选民关心自己最在意的东西。但很明显，正如你描述的那样，

15:22

when asked on a binary yes or no question, the answer is absolutely not. And so whether or not

当被问到一个二选一的 yes or no 问题时，答案绝对是否定的。所以不管是否

15:29

that drove people to the polls, as are you probably have a lot more info on that. But it's obvious

那是否推动了人们去投票，你大概有更多相关信息。但很明显

15:34

that it's like going to be continuing to be an issue. Yeah, I think it was spiky. So in states where

这还会继续成为一个问题。是的，我觉得它是阵发性的。所以在那些

15:41

there is a ton of data center build out happening. So, you know, states like Texas and Ohio and

有大量 data center 建设正在进行的州。所以你知道，像 Texas、Ohio 和

15:46

Georgia and Arizona, it was a really big issue. Yeah. I think you have to look at the Texas

Georgia 和 Arizona，这真的是一个大问题。是的。我觉得你得看看 Texas 的

15:51

results and Texas is a place in the country that's been building the most data centers.

结果，而 Texas 是这个国家建设 data center 最多的地方。

15:55

They were the most vulnerable. It was a huge part of the campaign, particularly in the

他们是最脆弱的。这是竞选活动中很大的一部分，尤其是在

15:59

governor's race. And it worked. I mean, it was just a huge wedge. And it's a wedge that I think

州长选举。而且奏效了。我是说，那就是一个巨大的楔子议题。而且我觉得，这个楔子议题

16:05

very importantly doesn't split, like doesn't polarize normally. You can win over Republicans that way.

非常重要的是，它不会造成分裂，不像通常那样极化。你能用这种方式争取到共和党人。

16:11

But you just you look at that list. Texas, Ohio, Georgia and Arizona, those are just all states

但你就看看那份名单。Texas、Ohio、Georgia 和 Arizona，那些都是

16:16

where Democrats performed really, really well. And in Ohio, in particular, they really went

民主党人表现非常非常好的州。尤其是在 Ohio，他们真的把矛头指向了

16:21

at Ramaswami and Husted, the Republican Gobernatorial and Senate candidates on the data center issue.

Ramaswami 和 Husted，共和党的州长和参议院候选人，围绕 data center 议题。

16:28

I think what you see here is like, I don't think data centers were a huge part of the Alaska race.

我觉得你在这里看到的是，我不认为 data centers 是 Alaska 选战中的很大一部分。

16:33

Yeah. But in the place where they're building a lot of them, it really mattered.

是啊。但在他们建很多 data centers 的地方，这确实很关键。

16:36

Yeah. That's interesting. And it does feel like there's going to be a big shift in how we think

是啊。这很有意思。而且确实感觉，我们的思考方式要发生很大的转变了。

16:42

about the build out. It doesn't necessarily mean a full sort of cessation of data center build

关于这轮建设扩张。它不一定意味着完全停止 data center 建设，

16:48

out, but it's going to take more time and it's going to be moving to other states. Maybe Louisiana,

而是会花更多时间，并且会转移到其他州。也许是 Louisiana，

16:53

maybe Oklahoma. Aaron, I'm wondering how you think this is going to play out among the VCs and

也许是 Oklahoma。Aaron，我很好奇你觉得这事在你接触的 VCs 和

16:59

investors you talk to, like how they're changing their plans or thinking about it differently.

投资人里会怎么发展，比如他们会怎么改变计划，或者换一种方式去想这件事。

17:03

I mean, I think in general, investors are a little bit terrified by the results,

我是说，我觉得总体来说，投资人对这些结果都有点被吓到了，

17:08

particularly in Texas when I was watching the all-in-feet last night. As you do every Tuesday night.

尤其是在 Texas，昨晚我看 all-in-feet 的时候。就像你每周二晚上都会做的那样。

17:18

And the Texas governor race was the one that they seemed most upset about. There was this kind

而且 Texas 州长竞选似乎是他们最不爽的那个。有一种

17:25

of like coat moment of like, oh my god, well, they're only reporting the liberal, the blue

像是 coat moment 的感觉，就像，天哪，他们只报道自由派、蓝色那边

17:31

district so far. Like we still have a chance because they know that of the sort of 45 gigawatts

district 到目前为止。就像我们还有机会，因为他们知道，在差不多 45 gigawatts

17:38

or so of total compute that's of energy that's supposed to come online next year, 10 to 15

左右的总 compute，也就是能源，本来预计明年上线，其中 10 到 15

17:43

gigawatts of that could be now in danger of not coming online because it's in Texas, because

gigawatts 现在可能面临无法上线的风险，因为它在 Texas，因为

17:50

they all expected that the moratorium that was put on for building data centers in Texas

他们都以为之前针对在 Texas 建 data centers 的暂停令

17:57

up through the elections would just be removed and they would all go back to building

持续到选举结束就会被取消，他们都会回去继续建设

18:01

and everything would be great. And so this is going to slow down a lot of the AI development.

然后一切都会很好。所以这会大大拖慢 AI 的发展。

18:08

This is going to make capacity compute capacity much more constrained and air go much more expensive.

这会让 capacity compute capacity 受到更多限制，而且 air go 会贵得多。

18:13

And it's going to sort of hurt the growth, not just of the frontier labs that need the compute,

而且这会某种程度上损害增长，不只是那些需要 compute 的 frontier labs 的增长，

18:18

but of all the ecosystem of companies that are sort of playing into the quote unquote AI trade.

但在所有那些多少参与所谓 AI trade 的公司生态里。

18:24

All of the kind of chips and neolabs and cloud resellers, all of that. So that is potentially

各种 chips、neolabs 和 cloud resellers，所有这些。所以这可能会伤到我们持续很久的这一轮 bull market。

18:33

going to hurt this kind of bull market that we've been on for a long time. So they're

所以他们对这事有点太戏剧化了。我听说有些投资者变得有点戏剧化。

18:38

getting a little bit dramatic about that. I've heard there was a little bit of

有点灾难化，甚至整个市场都这样。

18:44

investors getting dramatic. There was a little bit of catastrophizing, no less than the entire

这会把经济搞垮，把那摊烂事也搞垮，好像我们非要赢下这一切似的。

18:49

market. It's going to tank the economies and the shitter like we're trying to win all of that.

我甚至看到一条推文，Beth，Jesus，那种互联网名人发推说这就是西方文明的终结。

18:56

I think I even saw a tweet, Beth, Jesus, the kind of internet personality tweeted that this

是时候搬到太空去了，data centers 就在那儿。

19:03

is the end of Western civilization. It's time to move to space, which is where the data centers

是西方文明的终结。是时候搬到太空去了，数据中心就在那里

19:07

were moving anyway. So got to get that space real estate. What I thought was interesting about this.

反正都要搬了。所以得把那块空间地产拿到手。我觉得这件事有意思的地方是……

19:12

I was hearing some of this from from investors too. And then the Nasdaq futures were down.

我也从一些投资者那里听到过类似的说法。然后 Nasdaq futures 就跌了。

19:17

And then it's like the market opens up on Wednesday morning. And it bounces up.

然后就像，周三早上市场一开盘，它就弹上去了。

19:22

And so first, create them like the market doesn't think this is so bad. But a good contrary

所以一开始，先把它们做出来，就好像市场并不觉得这有那么糟。但一个很好的反向

19:29

intake I've seen floating around a bit is that this might be good for investors because I do

观点，我最近看到有人在传，说这可能对投资者是好事，因为我确实

19:37

think there's a widespread suspicion that there is a kind of like collective rationality problem

觉得有一种很普遍的怀疑是，现在存在某种像是 collective rationality problem

19:45

happening right now where everybody is investing too much in data centers because they don't

正在发生，就是每个人都在 data centers 上投太多，因为他们不想

19:51

want to be the company left behind. But that might lead to say the end of Oracle as a existing

成为被落下的那家公司。但那可能会导致，比如说，Oracle 作为一个现有公司的终结

19:56

American corporation. And a situation in which the capex investment is externally paced

美国公司。以及这样一种局面：capex investment 的节奏由外部推动，以至于一些刚开始冒头、尤其更像那种来去匆匆的玩家——他们真的很容易垮掉——要么根本没做起来，要么撑不下去。你知道，类似地，还有一种局面：像 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这样的玩家更关注 diffusion，以及让它们正在部署的东西具有经济价值，而不是互相竞赛去追逐那个名义上的 super intelligence 目标。这不显然对市场是坏事——就像 capex bubble 对市场真的很糟一样。你先创造出危险的 AI、之后才创造出有经济价值的 AI，这实际上对市场很糟。但往稍微更冷静一点的意义上说，

20:04

such that some of the like the particular more fly by night players that are beginning to

使得其中一些，比如那些比较不靠谱的、刚开始冒出来的玩家

20:09

emerge who could really, really collapse easily either don't get off the ground or can't keep

出现的人，真正真正很容易崩溃的，要么根本起不来，要么撑不住

20:14

going. You know, and similarly a situation where players like Anthropic and OpenAI focus more

going。你知道，同样地，像Anthropic和OpenAI这样的玩家更专注于

20:20

on diffusion and making what they are deploying economically useful as opposed to racing each other

关于diffusion，以及如何让他们部署的东西具有经济价值，而不是互相竞争

20:26

to the notional goal of super intelligence. It's not obvious that that's bad for markets like a

到超级智能这个名义目标。这显然对市场不利，就像

20:34

like a capex bubble is really bad for markets. The you create dangerous AI before you create

20:41

economically useful AI is actually bad for markets. But in a kind of slightly more sober sense,

经济上有用的AI实际上对市场是不利的。但以一种稍微更清醒的意义来说，

20:48

what markets need is a kind of alignment between how fast a buildout is happening and how

市场需要的是一种 alignment：buildout 推进的速度，要和产品在经济上有多大用处、以及因此被多快采用相匹配。

20:57

economically useful the product is and thus how quickly it is adopted. Not at all obvious to me

在我看来，从当前水平看，data center 建设放缓是否会对这一点不利，完全不明显。

21:03

that a slowdown in data center construction from where we are right now is bad for that.

对。我们聊聊科技亿万富翁吧。这算是我在整个选举季里看到的第三类反科技情绪。

21:07

Yeah. Let's talk about tech billionaires. This is sort of the third category of

而且周二在一些胜选演讲里，这个话题相当频繁地出现。

21:11

anti-tech sentiment that I've seen pop up throughout this election season. And it came up quite

Talleriko 实际上是在公开点名 Elon Musk，而这是他在整个选举周期里做过很多次的事。

21:16

often on Tuesday in some of the the victory speeches. We have Talleriko effectively calling

而我在想，你是否认为 Elon 在这次选举中投入的资金数额

21:25

out Elon Musk, which is something he did many times over the course of the election cycle.

埃隆·马斯克出局了，而这是他在整个选举周期中做过很多次的事情。

21:28

As I'm wondering if you think that the amount of money that Elon was pouring into this election

我正想知道，你是否认为Elon在这次选举中投入的巨额资金

21:32

because he poured in a lot of it was counterproductive to him in some sense because it gave politicians

因为他投入了很多，某种程度上这对他反而适得其反，因为这给了像 Talleriko 这样的政客

21:37

like Talleriko a foil to play against huge account of productive. So think about what that money is

一个可以对着打的靶子，一大笔 productive 的账。所以想想那笔钱在

21:42

buying that money is attempting to buy attention. But this the sheer size of that money and its

买什么——那笔钱是在试图买注意力。但问题是这笔钱的巨大规模，以及它

21:49

attachment to like Elon Musk himself who's like an attentional super object. He didn't get attention

和 Elon Musk 本人这种像 attentional super object 一样的存在绑在一起。他并没有得到注意力

21:56

and the attention it got was that Elon Musk is trying to buy the election buy it from you and

而它换来的注意力是：Elon Musk 想买下这场选举，从你手里买下它，而且

22:00

specifically buy it in Texas. And does Ken Paxton did Ken Paxton want one of these central themes

特别是在 Texas 买。还有，Ken Paxton——Ken Paxton 想不想让这些核心主题之一

22:11

of the closing weeks of the election to be Elon Musk is trying to buy the election like there's

在选举最后几周变成：Elon Musk 想买下这场选举，就像存在

22:16

broad anti-billionaire sentiment. You know, you can pull this like people really don't like billionaires.

广泛的 anti-billionaire sentiment。你知道，你可以利用这一点——人们真的不喜欢亿万富翁。

22:21

There's specifically negative Elon Musk sentiment. I was a little bit surprised actually

具体来说，就是有对 Elon Musk 的负面情绪。其实我有点意外，比 California 还……

22:27

than California. The wealth tax proposition didn't pass. I mean California there's a proposition

财富税提案没通过。我是说，California 那边有个提案

22:35

to do a wealth tax to on the very, very wealthiest California residents which should not be that many

要对最最最富有的 California 居民征收财富税，这些人应该不会很多

22:42

of them a couple hundred people. But it was going to be a sort of hard to administer tax and there

也就几百人。但这会是一种挺难执行的税，而且

22:45

was fear of having like billionaires flee California for say Texas. And it didn't pass. So in this sort of

有人担心亿万富翁会逃离 California，比如跑去 Texas。结果它没通过。所以在这种

22:51

like election in which anti-billionaire sentiment was very, very, very constant. The argument that

有点像反亿万富翁情绪非常非常非常持续的选举里。那个论点，

22:58

you know sort of potentially driving some of them out of California would be bad for California

你知道，说可能把其中一些人赶出 California 会对 California 不好，

23:01

actually one which struck me as a little bit surprising. If you had told me the like how badly

其实让我觉得有点意外。如果你早告诉我，那个有多严重

23:09

Republicans would lose the election if I knew that a week ago and you said what's going to happen

如果我一周前就知道这件事，然后你说会怎样，Republicans 是会输掉选举的

23:12

to the wealth tax and be like oh that'll definitely pass. It didn't. Aaron I wanted to ask you about

对 wealth tax 又会怎样，然后你说“哦那肯定会通过”。结果没有。Aaron，我想问你

23:16

this because we talked about it last week and you've done a lot of reporting on this and I'm wondering

这件事，因为我们上周聊过，而且你做了很多相关报道，我在想

23:20

how you sort of account for this result in what was otherwise a very clearly anti-billionaire

你会怎么解释这个结果，毕竟这场本来非常明显是反亿万富翁的

23:27

election. It feels a little bit like a California thing where people might just be tired of

选举。感觉有点像 California 的情况，人们可能只是厌倦了

23:31

the politicians kind of throwing together a plan that doesn't seem fully thought out and saying

政客们那种临时拼凑出一个看起来没完全想清楚的计划，然后说

23:37

just trust us will figure this out. And so I think there was enough messaging that introduced doubts

“相信我们就好，我们会把这事搞定”。所以我觉得有足够多的信息传达让人产生了怀疑

23:42

to this basically saying it's not like I mean the messaging from the pro the anti-proper 40 groups

对此，基本上是在说，不是那样的，我是说，来自支持方、反 proper 40 团体的那些说法

23:47

this is poorly written. They're just going to lose all the money. They need to do a better job of

这写得真差。

23:53

this. It's not sustainable. It's a one-time thing. I guess that kind of like resonated with people

他们只会把所有的钱都亏光。

23:57

and honestly it's the one thing that the billionaires I've seen and the tech right that we're talking

他们得把这件事做得更好。

24:02

about is like are clinging to this more or this this week now where they're like if they can't

这不可持续。

24:08

pass this kind of billionaire tax in a blue tsunami in California it'll never win anywhere in the

这是一次性的。

24:14

country. And I don't think that's true as I'd love to hear your thoughts on that. But I think

我猜那种东西在某种程度上确实引起了人们的共鸣，

24:19

I think there'll be more attempts at bat at this in the next few years. Well they'll just try to

而且说实话，这就是我见过的那些亿万富翁和我们说的科技右翼现在这周更紧抓不放的那件事：他们会说，如果他们在加州的一场蓝色浪潮里都推不动这种亿万富翁税，那这在全国任何地方都永远赢不了。

24:24

maybe position it a little bit differently or find ways that will resonate with people a little

我不觉得那是真的，我很想听听你对此的看法。

24:29

bit more. But I think in general people are just kind of like tired of like half-hearted props

再多一点。但我觉得总的来说，人们就是有点厌倦了那种半心半意的提案

24:33

that are that are thrown out there. And this one got a lot of criticism for that.

那种随便抛出来的东西。而这一项也因此受到了很多批评。

24:36

Yeah I agree that the California prop has like first the problem that Californians have begun to be

是啊，我同意，加州那项提案首先有个问题，就是加州人已经开始

24:41

skeptical of ballot proposition just full stop correctly so speaking as a Californian. But

对公投提案持怀疑态度，就是完全地，而且是对的，作为加州人我这么说。但

24:48

I do think the other issue with it was that there was a specific concern that would disadvantage

我确实认为它的另一个问题是，有一个具体的担忧，就是会不利于

24:52

California. I mean I think it is meaningful that Gavin Newsom did not support it. And to the sort

加州。我的意思是，我认为 Gavin Newsom 没有支持它是有意义的。而且对于那种

24:58

of comfort the tech right is taking this I think it's going to be basically table stakes in 2028

科技右翼对此感到的那种安慰，我觉得到 2028 年这基本上会成为

25:05

for Democrats to have a wealth tax proposal. And the argument for a national wealth tax is

对民主党人来说，拥有一项财富税提案。而支持全国性财富税的理由是

25:11

a lot stronger than the argument for a state wealth tax because you know they may say they

这比支持州级财富税的理由要强得多，因为你知道，他们可能会说，他们——

25:17

well but they're not actually going to move to Ireland or you know wherever it might be. You know

嗯，但他们实际上不会真的搬到 Ireland，或者你知道的，不管什么地方。你知道

25:22

Argentina. And so I think the long history of people moving to Argentina and things go south and

Argentina。所以我觉得，人们搬到 Argentina 然后事情就变糟的这段漫长历史——

25:29

so you know you're going to Gavin Newsom with a wealth tax proposal I think for that election. So

所以你知道，你拿着财富税提案去找 Gavin Newsom，我觉得是为了那场选举。所以

25:35

the idea that this is gone as opposed to it is going to move to the level at which is better

这种认为它已经没了的想法，而不是认为它会转移到一个能被更好

25:41

administered which is like the full force of the IRS and like the full jurisdiction of the United

管理——也就是像 IRS 的全部执法力量、以及 United

25:47

States is is more the way I understand the the situation. Yeah I want to talk about one more billionaire

States 的完整管辖权——这更接近我对情况的理解。对，我想再聊一个亿万富翁

25:54

poor one out for Vivek Ramaswami who lost the governor's race in Ohio. I mean Vivek is more or

为 Vivek Ramaswami 敬一杯吧，他输掉了 Ohio 的州长竞选。我是说，Vivek 更算是——

26:02

less a tech billionaire. He was ascendant in politics or seem to be he was one of the two faces of

算不上科技亿万富翁。他在政治上崛起，或者说看似崛起，他是两个门面之一，属于

26:08

Doge and now he's frankly humiliated and probably should be ashamed given the the final ad of his

Doge，而现在坦率地说他被羞辱了，可能应该感到羞耻，考虑到他

26:15

campaign involved putting his opponent Amy Acton's mother on TV to call her daughter a liar after

竞选活动的最后广告是把他对手Amy Acton的母亲请上电视，称她女儿是骗子，此前

26:23

Acton had said that her stepfather had abused her as a child. I'm wondering if if this race

Acton曾说她小时候被继父虐待。我想知道如果如果这场竞选

26:28

stuck out to you if if as a figure what what what you remember about his rise in his fall or if it

对你来说是否突出，如果如果作为一个人物，你你你记得他的崛起和衰落，还是如果它

26:35

was if if he was just a singularly bad candidate regardless of the tech halo around him. Look the

是如果如果他只是一个特别糟糕的候选人，不管他周围的科技光环。看这个

26:40

they can and and for that matter JD Vance yeah are the kinds of mega politicians the tech right

他们可以，而且而且就此而言JD Vance，是的，是科技右翼真正想要的那种超级政治家

26:48

actually wants they don't want Donald Trump with all of his all over the placeness right they want

他们不想要Donald Trump，带着他所有的左右摇摆，对吧，他们想要

26:53

these guys who are actually their guys and can go to their conferences and you know to talk

这些人其实是他们那边的人，能去参加他们的会议，你知道，还能去聊

26:59

knowledgeably about the kinds of highly cerebral reactionary policies that the the right likes

而且很有见地地聊右翼喜欢的那类非常烧脑的反动政策

27:07

to the tech right likes and they don't have to convince him right they they can just like they

也就是科技右翼喜欢的东西；而且他们不用说服他，对吧，他们就是可以，就像他们

27:12

already agree and the thing about both of those guys is their bad politicians and the and Ramaswami

已经同意了，而这两个人的问题在于他们都是糟糕的政客，然后还有 Ramaswami

27:20

here I think you think has like a particular arc where he could have lost this election in an

这里我觉得你觉得他有一种特别的轨迹，本来他可以在这次选举中以一种

27:27

honorable way and he decided to lose it in a maximally dishonorable way and it was just a group

体面的方式输掉，但他决定以最不体面的方式输掉，而这只是一件

27:35

test awful immoral thing to do that covered that should cover Ramaswami and shame but I would say

群体测试般的、糟糕又不道德的事，做这种事应该让 Ramaswami 蒙羞，但我想说

27:44

that I see this sometimes advance I see what Ramaswami I see with a bunch of Republicans where

我看到这种情况有时会提前出现，我在 Ramaswami 身上看到，我在一群共和党人身上也看到，就是

27:49

they kind of speak Trump with an accent that Trump has this cruelty to him this outrageousness

他们有点像在用 Trump 那种腔调说话，带着 Trump 身上那种残忍、那种离谱劲儿

27:58

but because it's natural to him he actually knows where the lines are he knows how to deliver it

但因为这对他来说是天然的，他其实知道边界在哪儿，知道该怎么把它表达出来

28:06

in a way where people don't take it exactly that seriously like he's done some stuff that is

以一种让人不会完全当真的方式，就像他干过一些事，而那些事

28:10

pretty gross in his time quite a lot of stuff that is very very gross but he has a finesse to it

在他这辈子相当恶心，很多很多非常非常恶心的事，但他有一种拿捏的分寸

28:17

that these guys who are mimicking him as if they are like a like a like a GPT-3 level LLM

而这些模仿他的人，就好像自己是那种、那种、那种 GPT-3 级别的 LLM

28:25

right like smart but without any art to it whatsoever it has like no feel for the situation

对，就是挺聪明，但完全没有一点艺术感，对情境完全没感觉

28:31

and then it just comes out horrible right like horrible and cruel and just like a silent room

然后一说出来就特别可怕，对吧，就是很可怕、很残忍，就像整个房间都安静了

28:38

you know where nobody's laughing and and that's that race and you know advanced

你知道，没人笑，而且，而且那就是那种竞赛，你知道，advanced 的

28:43

runs into this kind of problem too right like dogs and cats thing is like an example this for JD

也会碰到这种问题，对吧，就像猫狗那事儿就是个例子，这对 JD

28:47

Vance where they I think they think they're doing what Trump is doing and they don't understand

Vance 来说也是这样，我觉得他们以为自己在做 Trump 在做的事，但他们没明白

28:55

they're not and the thing here about them and it speaks to maybe to kind of tie this a little bit

他们并不是，而这里关于他们的这一点，也许可以稍微把这事跟

29:00

to our main conversation you're a big problem the tech right is gonna have the tech right could only

我们的主对话联系起来，你们有个大问题，科技右翼将会遇到；科技右翼只能

29:05

really survive as a factional player in a broader Republican ecosystem in which they're completely

真正作为一个派系玩家，在一个更广泛的 Republican 生态里生存下来，而在那个生态里他们那些完全

29:15

like inhuman and bizarre views about how to treat other people were not dominant right they could

像是不人道又怪异的、关于如何对待他人的观点并不是主导，对吧，他们可以

29:22

have a lot of influence they were the smart players in the coalition they had a lot of money but

有很大影响力，他们是联盟里的聪明玩家，他们有很多钱，但

29:26

ultimately the thing was run by this guy with animal charisma and like magnetic cunning and when

最终这件事是由这个有着野兽般魅力和磁石般狡黠的人掌控的，而当

29:34

you kind of reverse foregrounded background here and put them in their people in the front

你有点把背景反向前景化了，把他们这些人放到了最前面

29:40

it goes really really badly because what the non-college white working class is looking for

这会搞得非常非常糟，因为没上过大学的白人工人阶级想要找的

29:47

is not Vivek Ramaswamy it's just not the not the brief and I don't think this is where like the

并不是 Vivek Ramaswamy，这根本不是那个——不是那个路子，我也不觉得这就是那个

29:56

politics is going and I think you you see in the failure of some of these candidates and in the

政治走向；而且我觉得你能从一些候选人的失败中看到，也能从

30:01

problems I think the JD Vance himself is going to have like where the tech right is very very very

问题中看到——我觉得 JD Vance 自己也会遇到的问题——就是 tech right 非常非常非常

30:07

fragile which is it it doesn't understand and often doesn't seem to like human beings

脆弱，也就是说它不理解人，而且常常似乎不喜欢人类

30:14

to say nothing of the kinds of people who will need to devote for things and it doesn't want to listen

更不用说那些需要为某些事投入的人，而它也不想听

30:17

to them and that's not how you win in politics it's kind of wild seeing them can learn this in real time

他们的话，而那不是在政治中获胜的方式；看着他们实时学会这一点，还真有点魔幻

30:26

because it does feel like in 2024 they just had this like awakening where they realize oh my god we

因为确实感觉在2024年他们就像突然觉醒了一样，意识到天哪我们太有钱了，而我们拥有的资金如果用到政治上简直离谱，感觉我们的钱在政治里太能发挥作用了，比如 fair shake，你知道的，支持 crypto 相关事情的最大 packs 之一，他们实际筹到的钱对某些亿万富翁和捐款给它的公司来说只是九牛一毛，但现在他们开始学到了，就像你说的，这是个很好的点，他们开始明白这需要的不只是钱。

30:32

are so rich and the amount of money we have if you apply it to politics is absurd like our money

所以咱们暂停一下，往前看，我有点想推演一下，或者至少推测一下接下来会发生什么。

30:38

goes so far in politics like fair shake you know one of the largest packs ever supporting crypto things

两年前我们还在聊 Silicon Valley 的一次大 vibe shift，我在想……

30:44

the amount of money they actually raised was just a drop in the bucket for you know some of

他们实际筹到的钱，你知道，对某些……来说只是杯水车薪

30:49

these billionaires and the companies that that donated to it but now they're starting to learn

这些亿万富翁以及那些给它捐过款的公司，但现在他们开始意识到

30:54

as you're like this is a great point they're starting to learn that it takes more than money

就像你说的，这是个很好的点，他们开始意识到这需要的不仅仅是钱

30:58

so let's pause for a sec and look forward I kind of want to game out or at least speculate about what's

那我们先暂停一下，往前看一看，我有点想推演一下，或者至少猜测一下什么

31:04

coming next two years ago we were talking about a big vibe shift in Silicon Valley I'm wondering

接下来两年两年前我们在谈论硅谷的一次巨大的氛围转变我想知道

31:10

whether or not we're vibe shifting back again and what the sort of early signs are I want to ask

我们是不是又在往回 vibe shift，早期迹象大概是什么，我想问问

31:17

in particular Aaron I'm wondering what you're seeing in sort of the the early days after the results

尤其是 Aaron，我想知道结果出来后的头几天你看到了什么

31:21

how investors and other Silicon Valley figures are reacting to this well first of all we're seeing

投资者和其他 Silicon Valley 人物对此怎么反应。嗯，首先我们看到的是

31:26

a victory lap from the likes of Reid Hoffman yeah for sure you know and and and it's just it's still a

像 Reid Hoffman 这类人在庆祝胜利，对，肯定的，你知道，而且而且而且，就是还是有点

31:32

little bit confusing because he's out there saying we should get money out of politics and while he's

让人摸不着头脑，因为他公开说我们应该让金钱远离政治，而他又

31:39

you know one of the biggest left left-wing donors in this in this last cycle so that's that's a little

你知道，他在刚过去的这个周期里是最大的左翼金主之一，所以这有点

31:47

odd I think it's going to take a little bit a little while to shake out I mean maybe they're all

奇怪。我觉得得过一阵子才能见分晓，我是说，也许他们都会

31:55

going to you know hire their lobbyists and sort of like buddy up to people on the left and and

你知道，雇自己的游说人士，然后跟左派那边的人套套近乎，而且而且

31:59

figure out like how to get their companies well positioned for this next moment but I think

想办法搞清楚怎么让他们的公司在接下来这个阶段占好位置，但我觉得

32:04

culturally we're still going to see people hanging out and espousing their their right-wing ideas

从文化上讲，我们还是会看到人们聚在一起，宣扬他们那些右翼观点

32:10

I don't I don't know that I don't know that this big forgetting that everyone's talking about is

我不……我不知道，我不确定大家都在说的这种大规模遗忘会不会

32:14

going to happen as as rapidly but as are I'm sure you you have done is not obvious to me if in

那么快发生，但……我确定你……你做过的事情，对我来说并不明显，如果是在

32:21

like a vibe shift you know back in the other direction like okay Mark Zuckerberg takes off the chain

一种 vibe shift 里，你知道，往另一个方向摆，就像好吧，Mark Zuckerberg 彻底放开手脚了

32:26

you know you have like some things like that happen but in the way that Andreessen and musk and

你知道，会有一些类似的事情发生，但就像 Andreessen 和 Musk 还有

32:33

some of these other figures have become kind of like influencers right they all became tech you

其他一些人物已经有点像 influencer 了，对吧，他们都成了科技界的你

32:38

know online influencers do you have a group of them you know with maybe Reid being among those

知道，线上 influencer。你有没有这样一群人，你知道，也许 Reid 也在其中

32:43

people who can do that you know in the other direction given the kind of headwind they're against

那些能反过来做到这一点的人，你知道，考虑到他们面对的那种逆风

32:50

you know in some ways I think this is like a good moment to be like a Sachin Adela right a just

你知道，从某些方面说，我觉得现在这个时刻挺适合像 Sachin Adela 那样，对吧，就一个

32:54

neutral like a normal texio yeah right who doesn't seem to be like out there trying to be a kind of

中立的，像个正常的 texio，对吧，就是那种看起来并不像在外面试图当个

33:03

comic book villain or you know a podcaster right like just like somebody who runs the company

漫画书里的反派，或者你知道，一个播客主，对吧，就像只是那种经营公司的人

33:10

in a seemingly normal way I think that is gonna be like the the play I don't see they're

以一种看起来很正常的方式，我觉得那会像是那个那个打法，我没看到他们

33:15

emerging a kind of left-wing analog to the all-in guys yeah I think that's true I mean I would

涌现出一种像 all-in guys 那样的左翼对应物，对，我觉得确实如此，我是说我会

33:21

also suggest like part of what we're seeing as we've already been discussing is a is a collection

也会觉得，就像我们已经讨论过的，我们看到的一部分情况是，是一群

33:25

of liberal to left politicians who are pretty well versed in tech and tech criticism beyond a kind

从自由派到左派的政治人物，他们对 tech 和 tech criticism 相当熟悉，不只是某种

33:33

of anti oligarchical stance I mean we already sort of swooned over AES's 60 minutes interview where

关于反寡头立场，我是说，我们已经有点被 AES 的 60 Minutes 采访迷住了，在那次采访里

33:38

he's able to talk about diffusion but not in a way that suggests that he's fully bought in I mean

他能够谈论 diffusion，但方式并不让人觉得他完全买账，我是说

33:43

one of the really interesting contrasts between this blue wave election and the one in say 2008 is

这次蓝潮选举和比如 2008 年那次之间，一个非常有意思的对比是

33:50

you know I mean maybe I'm always speaking for myself but I think we all associate Obama and the

你知道，我是说，也许我一直只是在说我自己，但我觉得我们都会把 Obama 和

33:54

Obama administration with Silicon Valley in the sort of 20 East tech industry of the 2010s and now

Obama 政府与 Silicon Valley 联系在一起，是在 2010 年代那种 20 East 科技行业里，而现在

34:00

we're looking at a big a democratic party that no longer has the same relationship to the tech

我们现在看到的是一个庞大的民主党，它和科技

34:05

industry and so you know I I'm interested not just in what what CEOs emerge as you know normal

行业的关系已经不一样了，所以你知道，我感兴趣的不只是哪些 CEO 冒出来，是那种你知道的正常的

34:12

or even liberal leaning or whatever but also what politicians emerge and how their relationship

或者甚至偏自由派的还是什么的，而且还有哪些政客冒出来，以及他们的关系如何

34:17

to tech is gonna unfold of the next few years I feel like go ahead I think the flip side of that is

tech 在未来几年会怎么展开，我感觉——你继续说——我觉得这件事的另一面是

34:22

also for the Democratic Party and this is gonna be harder in this period which is what do they want

对 Democratic Party 来说也是如此，而且在这个阶段会更难，也就是他们到底想要什么

34:26

from tech as opposed to just like what do they not want from tech right they don't want billionaire

从 tech 那里得到什么，而不只是他们不想要 tech 带来什么，对吧，他们不想要亿万富翁

34:31

and oligarchical influence they don't want AI to take all your jobs or kill the human race or whatever

以及寡头式的影响力；他们不想要 AI 抢走所有人的工作，或者毁灭人类之类的

34:35

it might be they don't want the you know affects on you know utility rates and and water and the

可能是这些吧；他们不想要那种，你知道的，对公用事业费率、还有水、还有

34:42

environment but if you go back a couple years and I thought a lot about this you know in terms of

环境的影响；但如果你回到几年前，这件事我想过很多，你知道，就……而言

34:48

the work I was doing in this period when climate was the issue there was a sort of natural union

我当时在这个时期做的工作，那时候气候还是议题，出现了一种天然的联盟

34:53

emerging between the Democratic Party and an area of tech right I mean there's some alternative

正在 Democratic Party 和某个 tech 领域之间形成，对吧，我是说也有一些替代的

34:59

universe where Elon Musk who makes solar panels and Tesla's like just as a normie Democrat and

一个世界里，做太阳能板和 Tesla 的 Elon Musk 就像个普普通通的民主党人，而且

35:05

remains a normie Democrat and it's like very influential from that perspective what a world the problem

一直是个普普通通的民主党人，而且从那个角度看还非常有影响力，真是个什么样的世界啊，问题是

35:10

is that particularly with AI although not only with AI the question of do we want this is so salient

问题是，尤其是在 AI 上，虽然也不只是在 AI 上，我们到底想不想要这个东西，这个问题太突出了

35:18

and for right now for most people the answer is like not under these conditions not if it's gonna

而现在对大多数人来说，答案就像是：在这些条件下不行，如果它真要

35:23

do the thing you say it's gonna do you person who is building it and profiting off of it and in

做出你说的它要做的事，那就不行——尤其是你，造它的人、靠它赚钱的人、控制它的人，而且

35:28

control of it and in that world it's just like very hard to have a like a positive politics of

控制着它，而在那个世界里，真的很难有一种积极的、关于

35:34

technology because the technology is perceived I think very correctly and understandably as first

技术的政治，因为这项技术我觉得非常正确、也非常可以理解地被视为首先

35:41

and foremost a threat you know you go back to that O8 world you're talking about and what tech means

而且首要是一个威胁，你知道，回到你说的那个 O8 世界，以及技术意味着什么

35:46

in politics is the internet and social media which is gonna collect connect everybody and we're

在政治里就是互联网和社交媒体，它们会把所有人汇聚、连接起来，而我们

35:50

gonna have more friends and we're gonna know about more things and also green energy economy from

会有更多朋友，会了解更多事情，还有绿色能源经济，从

35:55

the recession gonna say the economy and and green energy right yeah you know and and right now it's

衰退里会说到经济，还有绿色能源，对吧，你懂的，而现在它

36:01

like it has all coherent around AI and the AI story is just a much more mixed and frightening

就像一切都围绕 AI 凝聚起来了，而 AI 的故事对人们来说只是一个更加混杂、更令人害怕的

36:11

story for people at the moment I don't think you're gonna have any politicians running saying

故事，眼下我不觉得会有任何政客跑出来说

36:16

what we just need is way way way more AI I think of some saying there are things we can get from AI

我们需要的只是多得多、多得多的 AI。我觉得会有人说，有些东西我们可以从 AI 里得到

36:21

you know in terms of drug development another and and other domains and we should encourage that

你知道，在药物研发、另一个以及其它领域，我们应该鼓励这些

36:26

but yeah I mean the problem with the tech industry is right now they are all in um no pun intended

但是啊，我是说，科技行业的问题在于，现在他们全都 all in 了，呃，不是故意玩双关

36:33

on something people increasingly don't think they want and that's not a messaging problem

关于某样人们越来越不觉得自己想要的东西，而这不是一个传达问题

36:39

you know I just wrote a column about this the the other week Max you read about it you know

你知道，我前几周刚写了一篇关于这个的专栏，Max，你读过那篇的，你知道

36:43

with this idea of like on we risk but even when you hear them talk about the world they're trying

带着这种类似 AI risk 的想法，但就算你听他们谈论他们正试图

36:48

to get to this world where human beings are the well-kept pets of the super intelligent as that

去到达的那个世界：人类成了 super intelligent 精心照料的宠物，而那个

36:54

world sucks people don't want that world that's not an inspiring vision and so like there's a

世界很烂，人们不想要那个世界，那不是一个鼓舞人心的愿景，所以就像，有一个

37:00

real there's a not a messaging problem here there's a there like too many people in Silicon Valley

真正的问题是——这里不是一个传达问题——而是，就像，硅谷有太多人

37:06

are building towards a future that if it goes well if you're not in the existential risk scenario people

正在朝着一个未来建设：如果一切顺利，如果你不在 existential risk 场景里，人们

37:12

don't want that future either where you know I got a seven and a five year old it's completely

也不想要那个未来，你知道，我有个七岁和一个五岁的孩子，这完全……

37:18

unclear what it would mean to train them to have like jobs they're not going to be prompt engineers

不太清楚训练它们去拥有类似工作到底是什么意思——它们又不会去当 prompt engineers

37:25

that doesn't seem to be no longer seems to be a growth industry um okay we're going to take a

那看起来已经不再是个增长行业了，嗯，好吧，我们接下来要

37:29

break when we come back we're going to do a segment that okay we're trying out a new name we're

休息一下，回来之后我们要做一个环节，那个——好吧，我们在试一个新名字，我们

37:33

going to see how it plays the new name is pacing the frontier and we're all going to take stories

看看效果怎么样。新名字叫 pacing the frontier，然后我们每个人都要讲一些故事

37:39

this is a really negative reaction so far we're all going to take stories if you're not watching

目前反应真的很负面。我们每个人都要讲一些故事——如果你不是在

37:43

this on YouTube I'm getting the the stoniest faces I could imagine we're gonna we're gonna talk

YouTube 上看这个，那我看到的就是我能想象到的最面无表情的脸。我们要聊

37:47

about stories that we are tracking ourselves that maybe other people are looking at that we think

一些我们自己正在追踪的故事，也许是其他人也在关注、而我们认为

37:52

are being important over the next a few weeks months or years this is hard fork I'm with Aaron

在未来几周、几个月或几年里会变得重要的那些。这里是 Hard Fork，我和 Aaron 一起

37:57

Griffith and Ezra Klein wait I thought you're gonna like announce a name for the segment pacing

Griffith 和 Ezra Klein，等等，我还以为你要给这个环节宣布个名字，叫 Pacing the Frontier。我不懂，我知道这其实不太说得通，对吧？

38:03

the frontier I don't get it I know it doesn't really make sense does it hey it's Anna Martin

嘿，我是 New York Times 的 Anna Martin，无论你在哪儿听播客，你都听过这句话，对吧？无论你在哪儿听播客，永远都是你在哪儿听播客，你当然听过。

38:18

from the New York Times wherever you get your podcasts you've heard that line before right wherever

可要是我告诉你，你再也不用听到那句话了呢？你知道吗，你抓到我了，我其实不能告诉你这个，但我可以告诉你有这么个地方，我觉得你可能想去看看。

38:23

you get your podcasts forever you get your podcasts of course you have but what if I told you

就是 New York 里的 shows 标签页，你能找到 Ezra Klein show 的完整单集、The Interview、Modern Love、Daily，还有 cereal 的新老单集，以及更多。

38:29

you never have to hear that line ever again you know what you caught me I actually can't tell you

有太多可以听、可以看的内容了，我觉得这真的很特别。

38:34

that but I can tell you somewhere I think you might want to go it's the shows tab in the New York

这个但我可以告诉你一个我觉得你可能想去的地方，就是纽约的那个节目标签页

38:40

you can find full episodes of the Ezra Klein show the interview modern love daily new and classic

你可以在Ezra Klein show找到完整剧集，包括the interview、modern love、daily new和classic。

38:46

episodes from cereal and so much more so much to listen to and watch I think that's really special

来自cereal的剧集还有更多更多，有太多可以听和看的内容，我觉得这真的很特别

38:52

I did this interview once on modern love with the actor Andrew Garfield he was reading an essay and

我有一次在 modern love 上采访演员 Andrew Garfield，他当时在读一篇文章，然后

38:58

suddenly he was moved to tears and when you watch the video you feel like a part of it the shows tab

他突然感动得哭了，你看那段视频的时候会觉得自己也是其中的一部分。Shows 标签页——

39:05

find it wherever you get your just kidding it's in the New York Times app explore the shows tab

在你平时获取它的地方都能找到它——开玩笑的，它在 New York Times app 里，去逛逛 Shows 标签页

39:13

and follow a show today welcome back to hard fork I'm here with Aaron Griffith and Ezra Klein

然后今天就关注一个节目。欢迎回到 hard fork，我身边是 Aaron Griffith 和 Ezra Klein

39:20

we are doing a segment that before the break was called pacing the frontier and after the break

我们在做一个环节，它在休息前叫 pacing the frontier，而休息之后

39:24

is no longer called pacing the frontier we're asking our guests about stories that they're

就不再叫 pacing the frontier 了。我们在问嘉宾，他们正在

39:28

tracking that we think are going to be important over the next few weeks or months but that nobody

追踪哪些故事，我们认为这些故事在未来几周或几个月会很重要，但没有人

39:32

or not enough people are paying attention to right now Aaron what did you bring to show and tell

或者没有足够多的人现在在关注。Aaron，你带了什么来 show and tell？

39:36

today so there's a great story by our colleagues Dana Goldstein and Natasha Singer about Google

今天有个很棒的报道，是我们的同事 Dana Goldstein 和 Natasha Singer 写的，讲的是 Google

39:43

announcing that it's going to turn off search the the main thing we know Google for

宣布要关掉 search，也就是我们最熟悉 Google 的那个东西

39:48

for schools that don't want to use their AI products and this is notable to me because I mean

对象是那些不想用他们 AI 产品的学校，这事儿我觉得挺值得注意，因为，我是说

39:56

Google isn't many many schools Google Chromebooks are kind of the most used laptop in schools and

Google 在很多很多学校里都有，Google Chromebooks 算是学校里最常用的笔记本电脑，

40:03

so kids are using Google search for a lot there's a lot of schools including New York City schools

所以孩子们大量在用 Google search，有很多学校，包括 New York City 的学校

40:08

I believe that don't want their kids to be exposed to or using AI and Google is basically kind of

我相信，这些学校不想让孩子接触或使用 AI，而 Google 基本上有点像

40:14

saying you don't want our AI well fine you don't get our search either which is like such a classic

在说：你不想要我们的 AI，那好吧，你也别想用我们的 search，这真是特别经典的

40:19

tech industry move of like I'm taking my ball and I'm going home because you don't like me

科技行业招数，就像：你不喜欢我，那我就拿着我的球回家

40:25

and you know Google had to come out and clarify and say okay well we're going to figure out a way

而且你知道，Google 不得不站出来澄清，说好吧，我们会想办法把这件事慢慢处理过去。

40:30

to kind of work through this but like essentially any schools that don't want AI also don't get

但基本上，任何不想要 AI 的学校，也就用不了 Google search。

40:34

Google search and it's kind of there's definitely a backlash to this but also I think speaks to

这件事肯定是有反弹的，但我觉得这也说明了我们当下所处的这个时刻。

40:39

this moment that we're in of schools and parents and everyone pushing away from tech in in schools

学校、家长、所有人都在把 tech 从学校里、从教育里推开。

40:48

and education and you know Google is kind of kind of going in the other direction so the stories

而你知道，Google 却有点在往反方向走。

40:54

I think something that's going to continue and be something to watch yeah and it's a good story to

所以我觉得这些故事还会继续，也会是值得关注的事情，对。

40:59

talk about on this episode in particular because it feels like this is an issue that is going to

而且这尤其是这一集里很适合聊的一个话题，因为感觉这个问题在未来两年会严重压在选民和政客身上。

41:04

weigh heavily on the electorate and politicians for the next two years I mean you know speaking

我是说，你知道，说起来。

41:09

as a millennial parent you know I get the feeling that a top issue for us voting millennial parents

作为千禧一代父母，你知道，我感觉对我们这些会投票的千禧一代父母来说，一个首要议题

41:14

is going to be keeping AI the hell away from kids and education and maybe away from kids entirely

会是把 AI 彻底挡在孩子和教育之外，甚至可能让孩子完全接触不到

41:21

and I think this kind of thing where the tech company doesn't seem to be listening exactly you know

而且我觉得这种事吧，就是科技公司好像根本没在认真听，你懂吧

41:27

if you are a campaign manager somewhere or achieve a staff somewhere you are going to want to

如果你在某处当竞选经理，或者在某处做幕僚，你就会想

41:31

stick your crowbar in and and and use your leverage to make it a big issue I mean I don't know why

拿撬棍插进去，然后然后然后动用你的筹码，把它炒成一个大议题。我是说，我不明白为什么

41:35

they don't just use duck dot go but I mean I do think all classrooms should be very aware

他们不干脆用 duck dot go 呢？但我是说，我确实觉得所有教室都应该非常注意

41:40

of surveillance and privacy issues I'm happy to come and lecture at elementary schools about this

监控和隐私问题。我很乐意来小学做讲座，讲讲这些

41:44

stuff as or what story are you tracking this week there's this permitting reform bill and I think

东西。那，或者你这周在追踪什么新闻？有个许可改革法案，而且我觉得

41:49

it's actually relevant to this whole conversation a couple ways so this permitting reform bill was

它其实和整个对话在好几个方面都相关，

41:54

struck it's a bipartisan bill between on the Democratic side senators White House and Heinrich

所以这个 permitting reform 法案被撤下了。

42:01

of Rhode Island and New Mexico on the Republican side Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and

这是一项两党法案，民主党这边是 Rhode Island 的参议员 White House 和 New Mexico 的 Heinrich，

42:05

Mike Lee of Utah and it's a big bill that you know it would take a long time to kind of go through it

共和党这边是 West Virginia 的 Shelley Moore Capito 和 Utah 的 Mike Lee。

42:10

and parts of it I don't understand but it basically makes it easier to build energy of all kinds

这是一项很大的法案，你知道，要把它大概过一遍得花很长时间。

42:14

green energy you know non green energy and then it also has data center provisions about China

里面有些部分我不太懂，但它基本上让各种能源都更容易建设，绿色能源，你知道，非绿色能源。

42:19

internalize more of the cost of the the data centers and this is bill that's kind of splitting

然后它还有一些关于中国的 data center 条款，要让中国把 data center 的更多成本内部化。

42:25

the Democratic Party a bit it is there in the lame duck but it is really like a like a movement

而这个法案有点在分裂民主党，它现在在跛脚鸭会期里，但它真的像一场……像一场运动。

42:30

around how easy is it to build energy in this country and then there's also a place where as

围绕在这个国家搞能源建设到底有多容易，然后也还有一个地方，随着它被修正、被推进，你知道，对 data center 的反弹情绪可以找到表达的地方。

42:35

it gets amended and worked through you know the data center backlash can find a place to express

所以我觉得这项法案会是一个信号，显示双方到底想做多少两党交易，尤其是在现在的 lame duck session 里。

42:39

itself so this bills I think it'd be a signal for how much bipartisan deal making the two sides want

而且，你知道，现在 Democrats 即将拥有这么大的权力，他们会有多愿意坚持这一点，我觉得是个很大的未知数。

42:44

to do particularly in the lame duck session right now and it's also although you know how much

但它也是一个地方，用来讨论搞能源建设到底应该有多容易，尤其是在有更多天然气项目正在建设来给 data center 供电的时候。

42:49

Democrats are going to want to stick with that now that they have so much power coming up I think

然后还有关于建设 data center 的国家规则是什么，这项法案可能会成为一个载体，在那里……

42:52

is a very open question but it's also a place for this question of how easy should it be to build

这是一个非常开放的问题，但它也是探讨“构建应该有多容易”这个问题的一个切入点

42:59

energy particularly the time when a lot more natural gas is being built to power data centers

energy，尤其是当大量天然气正在被建设用于为data centers供电的时候

43:03

and then what are the national rules on building data centers this bill could become a vehicle where

然后关于建设数据中心的全国性规定是什么，这项法案可能会成为一个载体，在那里

43:09

a lot of that gets fought out or we get to see actually there's not enough consensus for even a

很多这类事情最后都是在博弈中见分晓，或者我们会看到，实际上现在连一项非常非常两党一致的立法都还没有足够共识去推进。

43:14

very very bipartisan piece of legislation to move forward on this right now and what's the sort of

那你说的时间表大概是什么样？是未来几个月吗？

43:19

time frame you're looking at like this is over the next several months so my the last I heard it was

我最后听到的是，接下来一两周就会开始在 Senate 推进，不过对，整体是未来几个月的事。

43:23

going to be to to start moving forward in the Senate the next week or two but yeah over the next

所以我们会比较清楚地看出 Trump 和 Republicans 有多愿意做这些交易，以及 Democrats 这边，对吧？

43:29

several months yeah so we'll get we'll get a good picture in how willing Trump and the

因为我觉得现在的判断是，如果这个 deal 没能在 lame duck 期间谈成，它大概率就推不动了。

43:32

Republicans are to make those deals and the Democrats right because I think the theory right now is that

某种程度上，在 Democratic Congress 下反而会更难，哪怕这个法案确实有 Democrats 的支持。

43:37

if the deal does not get made in the lame duck it probably will not move forward it's actually

如果这笔交易在lame duck期间没谈成，大概率就不会推进了，实际上

43:40

to be harder in some ways under a Democratic Congress even the bill does have Democratic support

在某些方面，在民主党控制的国会下会更难，即使该法案确实有民主党的支持

43:45

I see but you know we'll see interesting um my story is kind of a non-story I was shocked

我明白，但你知道，我们会看到有意思的事，呃，我的故事某种程度上算不上什么故事，我挺震惊的，

43:51

that um prediction markets didn't make more of a splash this week and that's not to say that they

prediction markets 这周居然没掀起更大的水花，这不是说它们

43:55

weren't everywhere being advertised too constantly uh you walk outside the time's offices they're

没有到处、不停被投广告，呃，你走到 Time's offices 外面，它们

44:00

all over time square they're calcium and polymarket ads um but they seem to have largely

铺满 Times Square，都是 calcium 和 Polymarket 的广告，嗯，但它们似乎大体上

44:05

gotten the elections right I'm using air quotes because I think it's a it's a question of philosophy

把选举结果搞对了——我这儿是在比引号，因为我觉得这是个、这是个哲学

44:10

and epistemology what prediction markets are actually doing in terms of getting things right

和认识论的问题：prediction markets 在“把事情搞对”这件事上实际到底在做什么

44:14

but unlike the Brazilian elections a few weeks ago there wasn't there weren't any huge swings

但不像几周前的巴西大选，这次没有——没有任何巨大的波动

44:18

we didn't have any crazy stories about wins or losses just feels like less of a coming out party

我们也没听到什么关于赢或输的疯狂故事，就感觉没那么像一场“正式亮相”的派对

44:25

than a sort of a moment when prediction when it feels like prediction markets have been folded

而更像是一个时刻，感觉 prediction markets 已经被折进

44:29

fairly thoroughly into the elections and newsmaking apparatus I had a little skeptical this whole thing

相当彻底地进入选举和新闻制造体系，我一开始对整件事有点怀疑

44:36

like go look on polymarket at the prediction market for the Mississippi Senate race okay there's

比如说去 polymarket 上看看 Mississippi Senate race 的 prediction market，好吧，那有

44:43

okay that's fair like just look at what that like I'm gonna be like were they have really wrong

好吧，这说得通，就像看看那个……我会想说，他们真的错了吗

44:50

yes but yeah it's more just like the way it's like the thing just all of a sudden you get like the

是啊，但 yeah，更像是这样：事情突然一下子，你就拿到那个

44:54

actual information and then the two lines go like this yeah yeah and it's not like the prediction

实际信息，然后两条线就这样走，yeah yeah，而且并不是说 prediction

44:59

markets got something wildly right either they're willing to swing faster in the direction of

markets 就特别神地押中了什么，而是它们愿意更快地朝

45:04

of information we're seeing but yeah I'm not kind of like track the polls quite a bit yeah in many

我们看到的信息方向摆，但 yeah，我不是那种……我其实挺关注民调的，yeah，在很多

45:09

the races but you know really more than anything it just felt like this was an election where we all

这些选战啊，但你知道，其实最重要的是，这感觉就像是一场大选，而我们大家都

45:14

kind of just nodded our head and said yeah of course there's prediction markets and they exist and

只是点点头说，对啊，当然有 prediction markets，它们就是存在，而且

45:18

that's there on every TV screen all the time I'm not saying that's good I'm not saying it's bad

一直出现在每块电视屏幕上。我不是说这好，也不是说这坏，

45:22

though I have my suspicions I just was sort of an interesting feature at the week I mean maybe

虽然我有我的怀疑——我只是觉得这是这周一个挺有意思的现象。我是说，也许

45:27

it's just that they're becoming more sophisticated and that like there's there's less suckers out

只是它们变得越来越成熟了，而且就像，外面的冤大头越来越少了，

45:31

there and so I mean I think there's smarter and smarter money yeah sadly for degenerate gamblers

所以我是说，我觉得聪明钱越来越多了。是啊，可惜对烂赌鬼来说是这样，

45:38

don't not for me not for me I'm an ethical journalist I do not have any stakes in any bets on the

别，不是说我，不是说我。我是个有职业道德的记者，我在这次

45:43

election but I'm happy to give tips to hard fork readers email us hard fork at NY Times. Thank you

选举的任何赌注里都没有任何利益。但我很乐意给 hard fork 的读者一些建议，发邮件到 hard fork at NY Times。谢谢

45:50

Ezra and Aaron for joining us this is like an unbelievably stimulating discussion I had a really good

Ezra、Aaron，谢谢你们加入，这真是一场刺激到难以想象的讨论，我聊得特别开心。

45:54

time everybody else stick around we've got Teddy Schleife are coming on to talk about who spent

其他人先别走，接下来 Teddy Schleife 要上来聊聊谁把钱花得明智、谁把钱花得糟糕。

45:57

their money wisely and who spent their money poorly I'm gonna give you a hint who's in the

我给你们个提示：后一类是谁——他名字的首字母是 EM。

46:02

latter category his initials are EM thank you guys thank you this is H.E. Solzberger I'm the

谢谢你们，谢谢。

46:16

publisher of the NY Times and I'm also a former reporter who's watched with a lot of alarm as

我是 H.E. Solzberger，NY Times 的出版人，也当过记者；这些年看着我们这个行业不断萎缩，我心里非常警觉。

46:21

our profession has shrunken recent years normally this is where I had asked you to subscribe to the

通常到这儿我会请大家订阅 Times，但今天我想鼓励大家支持任何致力于原创报道的新闻机构，不管是你们当地的报纸、全国性报纸，还是 NY Times。

46:26

Times but today I'm encouraging you to support any news organization that's dedicated to original

最重要的是

46:32

reporting whether that's your local newspaper a national paper or the NY Times what matters most

无论那是你的本地报纸、全国性报纸还是NY Times，最重要的是报道本身

46:39

is that you subscribe to a real news organization doing firsthand fact-based reporting and if you

你是不是订阅了一家做第一手、基于事实报道的真实新闻机构？如果你已经订阅了，谢谢你，欢迎回到 hard fork。

46:45

already do thank you welcome back to hard fork I'm here with Times reporter Teddy Schleife to talk

我是和 Times 的记者 Teddy Schleife 一起在这里，聊本周选举中科技界的赢家和输家。

46:51

about winners and losers in tech from this week's elections so Teddy you've spent the last several

所以 Teddy，过去几个月你一直在报道竞选资金，尤其是它在这个周期里与科技行业的关系。

46:55

months reporting on campaign money especially it pertains to the tech industry in this cycle I know

我从你的报道里知道，排名前 20 的捐款人向中期选举投入了大约 20 亿美元，其中超过 8 亿美元以某种方式来自科技行业。

47:01

from your reporting the top 20 donors injected about two billion dollars into the midterms more

我想先点出那些大玩家：当我们说顶级科技捐款人时，我们说的是谁？

47:06

than eight hundred million of that came from the tech industry in one way or another I want to

当然，我是说，头号科技捐款人是一个叫 Elon R Musk 的人。

47:11

start by identifying the big players when we're talking about the top tech donors who were we talking

好，我要把这个写下来。

47:15

about sure I mean the the number one tech donor is a guy named Elon R Musk okay I'm gonna write this

当然，我是说，排名第一的科技界捐赠者是叫Elon R Musk的家伙，好吧，我要把这个写下来

47:21

down sorry he spent looks like about four hundred and seventy to five hundred million dollars

呃，抱歉，他看起来花了大约四亿七千万到五亿美元

47:27

somewhere in that range on the election other tech people that folks may have heard of Mark

大概在这个区间，花在这次选举上；还有其他科技圈的人，大家可能听过 Mark

47:32

injuries and Ben Horowitz the founders of injuries and Horowitz the venture capital firm

injuries 和 Ben Horowitz，他们是风投公司 injuries and Horowitz 的创始人

47:36

spent a hundred million dollars themselves there's also people like the company Coinbase

他们自己花了一亿美元；还有像 Coinbase 这样的公司

47:41

which joined injuries and Horowitz in backing up a crypto super pack this cycle

这一轮它加入了 injuries and Horowitz，一起资助一个 crypto super pack

47:46

and there's a couple other individuals such as Greg Brockman the president of OpenAI

还有几个其他个人，比如 OpenAI 总裁 Greg Brockman

47:52

who spent a ton of money on mag ink the Trump super pack and also has been a huge proponent

他在 mag ink 这个 Trump super pack 上花了大量资金，也一直是个大力支持者

47:57

of all this money supporting quote unquote pro AI politicians a couple years ago it felt like a

支持所有这些钱去支持所谓的 pro AI 政客；几年前感觉像是一个

48:03

sort of conventional wisdom was coalescing among at least some people in the valley that they were

至少在硅谷一些人当中，一种主流看法正在逐渐形成：他们太有钱了，也许尤其是 Elon，有钱到可以随便花钱，在政治上得到自己想要的东西。

48:08

so rich maybe Elon in particular was so rich they could really just spend freely and get what they

感觉这次选举的一个大教训就是，事实并非真的如此。

48:13

wanted out of politics feels a little bit like a big lesson from this election is that that's not

跟我说说，花钱在这里是怎么起作用的，可能跟两年前有什么不同，以及我们能从中总结出什么样的教训。

48:17

really true tell me a little bit about how spending his function here how it's maybe different from

当然，我是说，16 年前 Supreme Court 作出 Citizens United 裁决，某种程度上开启了亿万富翁政治支出“什么都行”的新时代；现在人们可以给政治委员会开不限金额的支票，而且每个周期，你知道，后面的零越加越多。

48:23

two years ago and and how what kind of lessons we might take away from that sure I mean so now

两年前，以及我们可能从中吸取什么样的教训。当然，我的意思是，那么现在

48:28

16 years ago the citizens United decision comes down from the Supreme Court which kind of begins this

16年前，最高法院做出了Citizens United裁决，这可以说是开启了这一切

48:32

new era of anything goes billionaire political spending and now people can cut checks of unlimited

亿万富翁政治支出无所顾忌的新时代，现在人们可以开无限额的支票

48:40

sizes to political committees and every cycle you know the zeros keep adding up to more and more

给政治委员会的捐款规模，每个选举周期你知道那些零越加越多，越来越多

48:47

so in 2024 you know Elon Musk spent some around three hundred million dollars and this is just

所以2024年，你知道，Elon Musk花了大概三亿美元，而这还只是

48:52

in disclosed giving we're not even touching all the undisclosed giving that happens and the narrative

公开披露的捐赠，我们甚至都没算上所有那些未披露的捐赠，然后这个叙事

48:57

formed I think somewhat unfairly that like it was a it was a raging success so the the what must

就形成了——我觉得这多少有点不公平——好像那是一次、那是一次巨大的成功，所以这个、这个

49:04

did 2024 was perceived as successful and I think the the gospel of kind of the entire world of

2024年被认为很成功，而我觉得这个、这个，差不多整个

49:10

money and politics is that money helps with politics that you you win elections by spending more money

金钱与政治世界的信条就是，钱对政治有帮助，你、你靠花更多钱来赢选举

49:17

this cycle I think and I this is a meta critique of my own stuff over the last decade like I don't

这一轮我觉得，而且我这是对我自己过去十年那套东西的元批评，就像我不

49:22

know I mean I mean there are there are times when that's true there are times when it's not true

知道，我是说，我是说，有时候那是真的，有时候那不是真的

49:26

last night was a vivid illustration of the fact that you can spend you know in Musk's case

昨晚生动地说明了这个事实：你可以花钱，你知道，就Musk而言

49:32

$500 million or $450 million and this stuff doesn't necessarily convert yeah so part of what I

5亿美元还是4.5亿美元，而且这些东西不一定能转化，对，所以我想

49:38

want to do in talking to you is create I don't want to call it a loser list let's call it like a

跟你聊的时候想做的一件事就是搞一个——我不想叫它输家名单，咱们就叫它一种

49:44

return on investment power ranking I want to know whose money was well spent and whose money wasn't

return on investment 实力排名，我想知道谁的钱花得值，谁的钱没花好

49:49

and I want to talk about some of the people that you were just mentioning seems to me and

然后我还想聊聊你刚才提到的其中一些人，我觉得，而且

49:54

and I I'm going to throw out the the names that seem like they've done particularly well I want

而且我我打算点一下那些看起来做得特别好的人名，我想

49:58

to feel free to challenge me if you disagree read Hoffman is basically the only democratic donor

让你随便质疑我，如果你不同意的话。Reid Hoffman 基本上是唯一一个民主党金主

50:02

among the tech group and the twenty billion dollars it's got to feel like he did pretty well with

在科技圈那帮人里，再加上那200亿美元，感觉他这钱肯定用得相当不错

50:07

his money yeah I mean reads single biggest investment the cycle this publicly was he spent

他的钱。对，我是说，Reid 这轮公开的最大单笔投资就是他花的

50:11

$17 million on supporting James Tallerico including in the Democratic primary which was competitive

在支持 James Tallerico 上花了 1700 万美元，包括在那场竞争激烈的民主党初选中

50:17

and of course the general election was was competitive in Tallerico one by you know a shockingly

当然，大选也很有竞争性，而 Tallerico 赢下了它，你知道，以惊人

50:23

large margin makes you wonder if we didn't even need to spend anything in the general honestly in

大的优势赢了，让人不禁想，老实说，我们在大选里是不是根本不需要花任何钱

50:27

retrospect you know yes he he is somebody who knows a thing or two about political spending at

回过头看，你知道，是的，他这个人对政治支出还是懂点门道的，到了

50:32

the point he's been doing this now for like 10 or 15 years and he believed that Tallerico was

现在他做这事已经大概 10 年、15 年了，而且他相信 Tallerico 是

50:39

you know a generational talent in the sort of person who could win Texas and uh you know he won

你知道，一个世代级的人才，是那种能赢下 Texas 的人，呃，你知道，他赢了

50:44

so so we can maybe put him somewhere near the top let's do that another person I want to talk about

所以，所以也许我们可以把他放到接近顶部的位置，就这么办。另一个人我想谈谈

50:48

it didn't come up before because he hasn't been a huge donor uh sort of nationally across the

之前没提到他，因为他在全国范围内还算不上什么大额捐赠者，呃，在全国各地——

50:52

midterm cycle but sir he brain did pretty well for himself yeah surge is not on the list we mentioned

中期选举周期，但 sir he brain 自己做得挺不错，对，surge 不在我们提到的那份名单上

50:56

because his all was giving is at the state level but surge brain the founder of Google um if

因为他的 all was giving 是在州层面，但 surge brain，Google 的创始人，嗯，如果

51:02

if read is a veteran you know surge is a rookie um he spent over a hundred million dollars this cycle

如果 read 是个老手，你知道 surge 是个新手，嗯，他这个周期花了一亿多美元

51:09

on a california political effort called building a better california um brin basically started this

在一个叫 building a better california 的加州政治行动上，嗯，brin 基本上创办了这个

51:16

group to push back on the proposed wealth tax in california which at least as of this recording

组织，用来反对加州拟议的财富税，至少截至这次录制时

51:22

seems like it's going to fail um and that is in large part because surge and other wealthy people

看起来它要失败了，嗯，而这在很大程度上是因为 surge 和其他富人

51:29

from tech were spent $330 million on a political effort to kind of cripple this thing

来自科技界的人花了 3.3 亿美元在一项政治行动上，想把这个东西搞残

51:36

and it worked i mean the surge they were able to demolish this thing financially not only did

而且奏效了，我是说 surge 他们能够在财务上把这件事彻底击垮，不仅

51:43

they raised $333 million but the pro side the union pushing this billionaires tax in california

他们筹到了 3.33 亿美元，但支持方——在 California 推动这项亿万富翁税的工会——基本上没筹到什么钱；他们在投入上被远远压过，这也说明了金钱在政治里的作用。

51:49

basically raised bupkiss they they they were outspent tremendously and it's a testament to money in

所以这两个人 Surge 和 Read，我们可能会放到名单最上面。

51:55

politics so these two guys surge and read we might put at the top of our list yeah partly because

对，部分原因是他们是昨晚那些选举里唯二得到自己想要结果的人。

52:00

they're the only guys who got what they wanted out of the races last night i want to turn to the

我想转到 crypto 那群人，因为嗯，这是你整理出来的一整个群体——当我们看前 20 名顶级捐款人时，嗯，我们有 Winkelvoss 双胞胎，他们是 Trump 和 Trump 阵营 PAC 的大金主；还有一个叫 fair shake 的 super PAC，呃，是 crypto 阵营的。

52:04

crypto people because um this is a whole grouping that you've put together when we're looking at

crypto 这些人把钱花在哪儿？他们在找什么？对，所以这……

52:09

the top 20 top donors um we have the winkelvoss twins who were big donors to trump and trump

排名前20的顶级捐赠者，呃，我们有温克莱沃斯双胞胎，他们是特朗普的大额捐赠者，还有特朗普

52:14

aligned packs and there's also this thing called fair shake a super pack uh that is is crypto

有对齐的pack，还有一个叫fair shake的超级pack，呃，那是加密货币的

52:19

aligned where are the crypto people spending their money what are they looking for yeah so this

对齐的，那些加密圈的人把钱花在哪儿了，他们在找什么？对，所以这个

52:24

kind of started in two thousand twenty four when um fair shake raised somewhere in the hundred

算是从 2024 年开始的，当时嗯 fair shake 筹到了大概一亿

52:30

to hundred fifty million dollars from a couple of key crypto companies including coinbase ripple

到一亿五千万美元，来自几家关键 crypto 公司，包括 Coinbase、Ripple、injuries and horowitz

52:37

injuries and horowitz um and the narrative that was set was that it was a raging success um

injuries and horowitz，嗯，而且当时定下的说法是，这是一次大获成功，嗯

52:43

and that basically they were able to elect a very pro crypto congress even trump ended up being you

而且基本上他们能选出一个非常 pro crypto 的国会，甚至连 Trump 最后都成了你

52:49

know seen as pro crypto um and they wanted to keep it going in two thousand twenty six um

知道的，被视为 pro crypto，嗯，而且他们想把这个势头延续到 2026 年，嗯

52:57

they have some successes in primaries like there was a congressional race

他们在初选里有一些成功，比如有一场国会选举

53:00

in Maryland and democratic primary where they elected um a pro crypto person they had some losses

在马里兰州的一场民主党初选里，他们选出了嗯一个 pro crypto 的人；他们也有一些失败

53:05

in primaries where uh they're the Illinois senate race um but this november they are big bet

在初选里，呃，就是伊利诺伊州参议院选举那场，嗯，但今年 11 月他们押下重注

53:12

was identical to two thousand twenty four which was to defeat shared brown the Ohio senator who

和2024年一模一样，就是要击败 shared brown，这位 Ohio 参议员，他以前负责 Senate Banking Committee，嗯，这个委员会当然监管 crypto，这在 Washington 可是大事

53:18

used to be in charge of the senate banking committee um which of course regulates crypto it's a

shared brown 成了 fair shake 在9月和10月投放的4500万美元反对广告的目标，而 shared brown 昨晚赢了，嗯

53:23

big deal in in in Washington shared brown was the target of forty five million dollars of ads

你知道，有一种不可战胜或者说不会犯错的感觉，我觉得，嗯，人们对 crypto 有这种感觉，就好像你要是敢反对 crypto 行业，你就会被彻底击垮

53:30

against him by fair shake in september and october and shared brown one last night um and you know

而 shared brown 显然会对此很有共鸣，因为他在2024年输了，部分原因就是 crypto 行业，我觉得当时花了4000万美元，但这次他们赢了，你知道

53:36

there's a invincibility or infallibility that i think that that that um people felt about crypto

有一种不可战胜或不会犯错的感覺，我觉得人们对crypto有那种感觉

53:44

were like if you were going to oppose the crypto industry you were going to get demolished

就像如果你打算反对 crypto 行业，你就会被彻底击垮

53:48

and share it brown obviously i'd be very resonant for him because he lost in 2024 in part because

53:54

the crypto industry i think spent forty million dollars then but this time they won and you know

我认为 crypto 行业当时花了四千万美元，但这次他们赢了，你知道

53:59

the crypto industry has won some other races so i don't want to say that they're totally on the

crypto 行业在其他一些竞赛里确实赢过，所以我不想说他们完全垫底在输家名单上，但至少在他们最受关注的那场竞赛里，现在对他们来说确实是这样。

54:03

bottom of the losers list but certainly in their highest profile race it's now for them yeah i mean

当然，输家名单上位置多的是。

54:08

there's lots of room on the losers list sure one interesting thing here is i think there was a

这里挺有意思的一点是，我觉得之前有一整套叙事，既来自 crypto 花的钱，也来自一种感觉：2024 年出现了人口结构上的转变，年轻男性变得更保守或更倾向 Republican。

54:12

a whole narrative that got built out of both the money the crypto is spending but also a sense that

还有一种感觉是，Democrats 也许不得不去争取 crypto 持有者、crypto 交易者。

54:16

there was this demographic shift in 2024 young men were becoming conservative or republican

你知道，这显然是 crypto 行业极力推动的叙事。

54:21

a sense maybe the democrats had to appeal to crypto owners crypto traders you know this was a narrative

现在感觉这层盔甲被戳破了一点，也许我们会看到 Democrats 对 crypto 行业稍微更强硬一些。

54:26

obviously pushed quite hard by the crypto industry feels like the armor has been pierced a little

显然被加密行业推得挺猛的，感觉盔甲被刺穿了一点

54:31

bit on this like maybe we'll see democrats being a little more aggressive with the crypto industry

这一点上，也许我们会看到民主党对加密行业更加强硬

54:34

after something like that yeah i mean and the reason why fair shake got involved into just

在那样的事之后，对，我是说，Fair Shake之所以会介入，而且是以一种

54:39

significant way at all this cycle was because they encountered this pushback you're speaking to

在这个周期里如此显著的方式，是因为他们遇到了你所说的这种反弹

54:44

i mean basically in september it was not clear whether or not the crypto industry was going to spend

我是说，基本上在9月的时候，还不清楚 crypto 行业到底会不会花

54:49

all this money they had basically ways that these super packs tend to work now which i think

所有这些钱；他们基本上有这些 super PACs 现在常见的运作方式，我觉得

54:53

is kind of interesting is they raise a ton of money and then it's sort of in this bank account

这挺有意思的，就是他们筹到一大笔钱，然后这钱就有点放在这个银行账户里

54:57

and they don't necessarily always spend it it's just like this permanent looming threat like you know

而且他们不一定总会花掉它，这就像是一个长期悬着的威胁，就像你知道的

55:02

shame if something happened to you and they basically democrats blocked this crypto policy bill

要是你出了什么事就可惜了；然后基本上民主党人挡下了这项 crypto 政策法案

55:10

called the clarity act in in september and then like that the next day was time to punish the

叫 Clarity Act，在9月，然后就像那样，第二天就到了该惩罚……的时候

55:14

democrats and they spent all this money against brown so like right if you're a believer that

民主党人，他们花了这么多钱来对付 Brown，所以就像，对吧，如果你相信

55:19

you know the crypto industry is overrated politically obviously you'd be emboldened by brown

你知道 crypto 行业在政治上被高估了，显然你会因为 Brown

55:26

searing down forty five million dollars in a wedding yeah let's talk about another set of donors

在一场婚礼上花掉四千五百万美元而更有底气，对，咱们聊聊另一批捐款人

55:30

to the fair shake super pack yeah injuries in harrow it's yeah this is one of the Silicon Valley's

给 Fair Shake super pack，对，Andreessen Horowitz，对，这是 Silicon Valley 的

55:35

most famous and prestigious VC firms but also quite memorably a conservative one

最有名、最有声望的 VC 公司之一，但也很让人记得的是，它是一家保守派机构

55:41

market reason obviously one of the loudest sort of pro trump voices in the valley

Marc Andreessen，显然，是硅谷里最响亮的亲 Trump 声音之一

55:46

there were big donors on the site they've donated to fair shake but they also were donating to an

这个网站上有大金主，他们给 Fair Shake 捐过款，但他们也在捐给一个

55:50

AI super pack called leading the future tell me a little bit about the money they were spending

叫 Leading the Future 的 AI super pack，稍微跟我说说他们当时花的钱

55:56

in where that was sure i mean it's fascinating for people who are in the injuries in

在那方面，当然，我是说，这对身处这个行业里的人很有意思，在

56:00

uh uh uh red is biography or if you know familiar with this uvra kind of politically because this

呃，呃，呃，Red 的传记，或者如果你熟悉这个 uvra 那种政治层面的，因为这位

56:06

is somebody who like what in his 20s was like a like an institution in democratic fundraising i mean

是那种在他二十多岁时就像民主党筹款界的一个机构一样的人，我是说

56:12

injury since been around for forever and now he and his firm um you know for a while until

他已经在圈子里待了非常久，现在他和他的公司，呃，你知道，有一阵子直到

56:17

Elon Musk and to the picture like we're the biggest political donors the entire cycle and never

Elon Musk 也进入了这个局面，像是我们是整个周期里最大的政治捐款人，而且从来没有

56:21

to story about kind earlier this year about how they got into this um the AI stuff they do is the

有报道讲今年早些时候他们是怎么进入这个的，呃，他们做的那些 AI 的东西是最

56:26

most interesting um because basically after fair shake spends all this money in 2024

有意思的，呃，因为基本上在 fair shake 于 2024 年花掉所有这些钱之后

56:34

and the crypto industry is seen as political savants they basically say hey let's do the same

而 crypto 行业被视为政治行家，他们基本上就说，嘿，我们也照做吧

56:40

thing with AI um the AI industry in 2024 is nascent about 2025 2026 it's becoming this huge thing

AI 这事吧，嗯，AI 行业在 2024 年还刚起步，大概到 2025、2026 年它就在变成一个庞然大物

56:49

and they they it's the exact same model you know obviously it's not crypto companies that are

而且他们——他们，你知道，是完全一样的 model，显然不是 crypto 公司在

56:53

funding it um it's it's AI firms like open AI's co-founder Greg Brockman and entries in

给它出钱，嗯，是像 OpenAI 的联合创始人 Greg Brockman，以及……里的那些条目

56:57

Harowitz um which has a ton of investments in AI and they basically run it back um with AI

Horowitz，嗯，它在 AI 上有大量投资，然后他们基本上就是拿 AI 把这套再来一遍

57:04

the difference as probably was is predictable in retrospect or or foreseeable is that people have

区别大概在于——事后看是能预料到的，或者说可以预见的——就是人们对

57:09

a lot stronger opinions about AI than they do about crypto right i mean it's it's funny to sort of say

AI 的看法比他们对 crypto 的看法强烈得多，对吧？我是说，这么说有点好笑

57:14

that AI feels more toxic than crypto right now but if we're as we're making our losers list it

现在 AI 感觉比 crypto 还有毒，但如果我们——在我们列输家名单的时候，它

57:18

feels a bit like that's what we're learning yeah i mean i mean on crypto there is there's

感觉有点像是这就是我们正在学到的东西，是啊，我是说，我是说，在 crypto 那边，有，有

57:23

i do think there's some political upside on crypto um for for people especially because there's

我确实觉得 crypto 在政治上有些好处，嗯，对人们来说尤其如此，因为……

57:28

the downs the downside is it's not a salient issue for people right still like taking money from

不好的一面是，这不是人们特别关注的议题，对吧，还是像从……

57:32

crypto um can be a net positive decision strategically right um but let's keep talking about AI

crypto，嗯，从战略上可以是一个净正向的决定，对吧，嗯，但咱们继续聊 AI

57:39

because i think perhaps even below entries in Harowitz on our list is Greg Brockman

因为我觉得，也许甚至排在我们名单上 Harowitz 那些条目下面的，是 Greg Brockman

57:44

co-founder of open AI president one of the most prominent people at the company after Sam Altman

OpenAI 的联合创始人、总裁，是公司里仅次于 Sam Altman 的最显眼人物之一

57:49

yeah um and a major donor to leading the future you reported and i found this story incredibly

对，嗯，他还是 Leading the Future 的主要捐助者，你报道过，而且我觉得这个故事特别……

57:55

fascinating on the controversy that spurred inside open AI yeah tell me about that i was going to

引人入胜，关于 OpenAI 内部引发的那场争议，对，跟我讲讲吧，我正要说

58:00

say you know he's the biggest donor one of the biggest owners to lead the future asterisk which is

说，你知道，他是 Leading the Future 最大的捐助者，也是最大的所有者之一，星号，也就是

58:03

the then it was pledged um and this shows how quickly the politics of AI have changed

然后当时这事被承诺了下来，嗯，这也显示出 AI 的政治变化得有多快

58:08

Greg Brockman in 2025 and his wife Anna uh commit to getting $50 million to leading the future

Greg Brockman 在 2025 年和他的妻子 Anna 呃承诺把 5000 万美元投给 leading the future

58:15

and it's matched by 50 million dollars from entries in Harowitz only the latter actually happened

并且来自 Harowitz 的 entries 会配捐 5000 万美元，但只有后者真正兑现了

58:20

because Brockman's the Brockman's get the first 25 million dollars in 2025 when AI is you know

因为 Brockman 夫妇——Brockman 夫妇在 2025 年拿到了第一笔 2500 万美元，当时 AI 你知道

58:27

it's an it's a it puts a policy issue but it's not like it is today and then a year later

它是个……它是个政策议题，但不像今天这样，然后一年后

58:33

they back out of the second 25 they're going to give so that instead of being two installments of

他们退出了原本要给的第二个 2500 万，于是本来分两期、每期

58:37

25 it becomes one and that's in part because Greg Brockman said internally inside the company

2500 万的款项变成了一笔，部分原因是 Greg Brockman 在公司内部说

58:42

that he was upset that his support for the super pack was becoming a distraction we've also seen

他对自己支持 super pack 这件事正变成一种干扰感到不满，我们还看到

58:47

this with um not totally the same but meta as part of their political engagement the cycle uh

这个，嗯，不完全一样，但 Meta 作为他们政治参与的一部分，这个周期，呃

58:54

also retracted about 20 to 25 million dollars from their state political giving it was timed in

还从他们的州政治捐款里撤回了大约 2000 万到 2500 万美元，时间点安排得

58:59

the same way that the that the Brockman gift was which is to say as the politics were getting worse

跟 Brockman 那笔捐赠一样，也就是说，随着政治局势越来越糟

59:03

they wanted to spend less money right um so this is tough and it just shows how quickly things

他们想少花钱，对吧，嗯，所以这挺难的，也正说明事情变化得有多快

59:08

have changed yeah i mean it does seem like we're seeing a revival of some of the um internal

对，我是说，确实看起来我们正在看到一些，嗯，内部的

59:12

employee pushback that was really common in the tech industry at the end of the 2010 say and then

员工反弹，这种反弹在 2010 年代末的科技行业里真的很常见，然后

59:17

got really quashed in in the in the in the in the bid during the Biden administration in the

被狠狠地压下去了，在 Biden 政府期间，以及

59:22

second trump administration but uh it seems clear that if you're an executive you want to be careful

Trump 第二任期期间，但呃，很明显，如果你是高管，你就得小心

59:27

about what kinds of causes your name is getting attached to and what kind of politics is getting

关于你的名字会被绑到哪些事业上，以及会被绑上什么样的政治，嗯，然后这就是为什么我们有 dark money groups 的美妙之处——

59:31

attached to yeah and then that's why we have the beauty of dark money groups um which is if you

就是如果你想做点什么，总有办法去做。我是说，这是个玩笑，但也是说，你知道，我们谈的是给公开披露的载体捐款，

59:37

want to do something there's a way to do it and i mean that's a joke but it's also that like you

而现在金钱、政治和亿万富翁影响力这个世界里，太多东西都通过不公开的渠道流走了。

59:41

know we're talking about gifts to disclosed vehicles and so much of the world of of money and

如果你是 Greg Brockman，你在外面听着这个，你想再往政治系统里投 2500 万美元，呃，外面就有个非营利组织，是啊，我需要收你的钱。

59:47

politics and billionaire influence now fun funnels through things that are undisclosed and if you're

好，所以我们在这里算是列了个清单，我们有几个人，他们得到了他们……

59:53

Greg Brockman out there and you're listening to this and you want to get another 25 million

Greg Brockman在外面，你听着这个，你想再往政治系统里投入2500万美元

59:57

dollars in the political system um there's a nonprofit out there yeah i need to take your money

嗯，外面有个非营利组织，是的，我需要拿走你的钱

60:01

okay so we've we've kind of constructed a list here we've got a couple people who got what they

好吧，所以我们在这里大致列了一个名单，我们有几个人拿到了他们

60:04

wanted and then a lot of people who really didn't who spent their their money in different ways

想要的，然后很多其实并不想的人，他们用不同的方式花了自己的钱

60:08

i think at the very bottom of our list no matter what is Elon Musk um who spent 400 plus

我觉得不管怎样，我们名单的最底部都是 Elon Musk，嗯，他花了 400 多

60:14

million dollars um and didn't i don't know that he won any a single race that he spent money towards

百万美元，嗯，而且我不确定他有没有赢下任何一场他花钱投入的竞选

60:21

he got a positive outcome out of it beyond that even more than somebody like Greg Brockman who

他从中得到了一个正面结果，除此之外甚至比像 Greg Brockman 这样的人得到的还多，而 Greg Brockman

60:25

became a story when he didn't want to Elon became an enemy especially in texas when he was constantly

在他不想成为新闻的时候成了新闻人物；Elon 成了敌人，尤其是在 texas，当他不断

60:30

invoked by as a foil in the center race um i don't even know where to begin with this sort of what

被当作 center race 里的陪衬，嗯，我甚至不知道该怎么开始讲这件事，关于

60:36

happened with elons money here and why did it turn out so poorly in your estimation yeah let's

Elon 的钱在这里到底发生了什么，以及在你看来为什么会结果这么糟？对，我们

60:41

let's roll back the clock to last spring the spring of 2025 when this special election in Wisconsin

把时间倒回到去年春天，也就是 2025 年春天，当时 Wisconsin 的这场特别选举

60:48

musk this is a random election people probably don't even remember it but like musk spent a ton of

musk 这是一场随便的选举，大家可能都不记得了，但就像，musk 花了大量的

60:54

of of capital literally and also in terms of his time on this judicial race in the state where he

资金，真的，还有他在这场州司法竞选上花的时间，在这个州他

60:59

again became the main character in the race um this is at the time he was leading the part of

又成了这场竞选里的主角，嗯，这时候他正领导着

61:04

government efficiency uh after the guy lost in Wisconsin um his name is Brad Schimmel

政府效率那块，呃，在 Wisconsin 那个人输了之后，嗯，他叫 Brad Schimmel

61:10

musk kind of realized i think based on some reporting that this was not working out to be so visible

musk 多少意识到，我觉得根据一些报道，这么高调并不奏效

61:17

in his political support and he tried to be a much much much much lower profile going forward um

在政治支持上，他试着接下来低调得多得多得多得多，嗯

61:26

that election i think was basically why musk for over a year was was not really doing much at all

我觉得那场选举基本上就是为什么 musk 有一年多几乎没怎么做事

61:32

and in the public eye um he was talking at one point about starting a third party never did that

而且在公众眼里，嗯，他一度说过要搞第三党，但从来没做

61:38

never recanted it i should also add um he's still technically a live situation um it's so crazy

他从没改口，我还得补充一下，呃，严格来说这事还没完，呃，太离谱了

61:44

that elon musk announced something he was going to do and then it didn't happen that's probably

就是说 Elon Musk 宣布了件他打算做的事，然后没做成，这大概

61:47

the first time that's ever happened he does delete tweets though and he's he's he's not deleted the

是有史以来第一次吧。不过他确实会删推文，而且他，他，他没删那些

61:51

tweets about third party um musk this time he was barely saying anything about it you know uh he

关于 third party 的推文，呃，Musk 这次几乎没怎么提这事，你知道吧，呃，他

61:57

said one that one time like vote red today which he did delete uh later uh at some point overnight

就说过那么一次，像是“今天投红”，后来他确实删了，呃，在周二夜里某个时候删的

62:03

on Tuesday night um his spending was was concentrated in a few places we don't have all the details yet

呃，他的支出是，是集中在几个地方，我们还没拿到全部细节

62:09

because of um campaign finance reporting but essentially i'll probably about half of the spending

因为，呃，竞选财务申报，但基本上，大概有一半的支出

62:15

maybe a little bit more of it was was centered on texas and was centered on Ken Paxton's race and

也许还多一点，是，是集中在 Texas，集中在 Ken Paxton 的选战上，而且

62:20

that's why James Talleriko uh was able to really make him a foil at the end and including in his

这就是为什么 James Talleriko 呃到最后真能让他成了一个反衬，包括在昨晚的胜选演讲里，嗯，他基本上就是在那里暗讽了 Musk。

62:25

victory speech last night um where he basically took a shot at musk um Paxton lost uh by a lot

嗯，Paxton 输得很惨。说到底，这对 Elon Musk 来说挺糟的，所以我觉得他活该在这里垫底，呃，但他到底该负多大责任呢？

62:32

and and ultimately like that sucks for elon musk so i he deserves the bottom spot here um but

我是说，就算 Musk 一分钱都没花，Paxton 大概也还是会输。

62:39

to what extent he's to blame i mean Paxton probably would have lost even even if musk had spent zero

而且，也许那里的论点是，ROI 就是不把钱花在我们注定会输的竞选上，因为至少那样你就不会——你偷了那五百万美元，对吧？对，对。

62:45

and and maybe maybe the argument there the ROI is to not spend the race we're going to lose because

我是说，我觉得你也可以说，不管怎样，Elon Musk 都会成为这场竞选里的一个角色，因为他是 Texas 和全国的一个重要人物，一个巨大的右翼人物，嗯，我们能不能

62:50

at least that way you don't you stole the five million dollars right yeah yeah i mean i think it's

至少那样你就不会，你偷了那五百万美元对吧，对对，我是说我觉得

62:54

you could also argue that elon musk was going to become a character in this race no matter what since

你也可以说Elon Musk无论如何都会成为这场竞选中的一个角色，因为

62:58

he's an important figure like a huge right-wing figure in texas and around the country um can we

他是一个重要人物，像是德克萨斯州和全国的一个巨大的右翼人物，嗯，我们能不能

63:05

look forward a little bit so we're still sort of the dust is still settling on this week's elections

稍微往前看一点，本周选举的尘埃还没完全落定

63:10

we're still figuring out what happened um are you expecting all of the people on this list to be on it

我们还在弄清楚到底发生了什么，嗯，你预计这份名单上的所有人都会在上面吗

63:15

again in 2028 um are there figures we should be looking out for who aren't weren't on at this cycle

2028 年再次上榜吗？嗯，有没有一些我们应该关注、但这一轮没出现的人物？

63:20

yeah i mean let's start with musk i mean he though the most extensive thing he said about the midterms

是啊，我是说，先从 Musk 开始吧。我是说，关于中期选举，他讲得最详尽的内容

63:24

was uh a couple days ago where he basically said his fear and the reason why he was so involved in

是，呃，几天前，他基本上说了自己的担忧，以及他为什么这么深入参与

63:29

the midterms is cycle was about 2029 his fear is basically to have a democratic trifecta where they

这次中期选举周期，关键在 2029 年。他的担忧基本上就是出现一个 Democratic trifecta，也就是他们

63:35

have the White House and they have both House of Congress which they now do and at that's going to

拿下白宫，并且拿下国会两院——他们现在确实如此——而这会

63:39

lead to a um uh you know at his view the end of the end of civilization i think he's a game over

导致，嗯，呃，你知道，在他看来，文明的终结——我觉得他的意思就是 game over。

63:46

for america or something like that which meant you know democrats are going to let all the illegals

为了America之类的，意思就是，你知道吧，Democrats 会把所有非法移民

63:50

in for mexico and you know they're going to basically register all his voters and then the end

从Mexico放进来，而且你知道，他们基本上会把他所有的选民都登记上，然后就是文明的

63:55

of civilization blah blah blah like that that that to me i read that as like yes elon musk plans to

终结，巴拉巴拉，就那种，那个那个，对我来说，我把它理解成：是的，Elon Musk 计划

64:02

play in the 2028 republican primary um musk has a pretty good relationship with jdvans probably

参与2028年的Republican primary，呃，Musk 和 jdvans 的关系相当好，大概

64:07

on a surprise but like that relationship has stayed pretty good even with the ups and downs with

并不意外，但那段关系一直保持得挺好，即使跟

64:12

trump um i would be shocked if musk did not support vans um the other people on the list um that we've

Trump 有起起伏伏，呃，如果 Musk 不支持 vans 我会很震惊，呃，名单上的其他人，呃，我们

64:19

mentioned i don't know because some of the the folks who are really tied to a specific industry

提到过的，我不知道，因为有些跟特定行业绑得很紧的人

64:24

who are just kind of doing effectively like like pay for play lobbying i don't really mean that in

基本上就是在做那种，就像，就像 pay for play 的游说，我不是真的在那个意义上说

64:30

a furious way but like the crypto industry the area industry where they're really engaged on a

以一种很愤怒的方式，但就像 crypto 行业一样，这个行业领域里他们真的会围绕某个具体议题深度参与

64:33

specific issue it really depends what what politicians do on those issues like um you know we're

这真的取决于政客在这些议题上怎么做，就像，嗯，你知道，我们也在谈共和党人，比如在民主党初选里

64:39

also talking about republicans like in the democratic primary like will there be a crypto candidate

比如会不会出现一个 crypto 候选人，能拿到 crypto 行业的钱

64:44

who kind of gets the money from the crypto industry or you know there certainly be a range of opinions

或者你知道，就算在民主党初选里，对 AI 肯定也会有各种不同意见

64:49

on ai even in the democratic primary like will there be someone who is more pro ai and and get um

比如会不会有人更支持 AI，然后，嗯，也在那边拿到一些钱

64:55

get some money there um one interest group that i think is fascinating which we haven't talked about

嗯，我觉得有一个特别有意思、我们还没聊过的科技行业利益集团，就是 AI safety 的钱，对

65:00

from the tech sector is the ai safety money yeah which is basically the backlash to the

这基本上是对世界观中那些伤害的反扑

65:06

injuries in view of the world um and that is a huge source of cash thing one of the big takeaways

嗯，而那是巨大的资金来源，这是最大的收获之一

65:12

from this cycle is that like there is a ton of money in the like anthropic um you know effective

这轮下来给我的感觉是，像 anthropic 那种地方有大量的钱，嗯，你知道的，effective

65:20

altruist uh you know lowercase d maybe apricase d democratic world where people who want the

altruist，呃，你知道的，小写 d，也许是大写 D 的民主世界，里面的人希望

65:29

ai companies is to move more slowly we're more concerned about existential risk and it's you know

AI companies 放慢脚步，我们更担心 existential risk，而且你知道

65:34

absolutely a going to be a force in the democratic primary and i think in 2028 you know

绝对会在民主党初选里成为一股力量，而且我觉得到 2028 年，你知道

65:40

dario amade could be on this list or or you know even some people at open ai who are more partial

dario amade 可能会在这个名单上，或者，或者，你知道，甚至 open ai 里一些更偏向这边的人

65:45

yeah i mean i expect to you know given the your beat that you are looking with some interest at the

是啊，我是说，我预计，你知道，考虑到你的报道领域，你会带着一些兴趣关注

65:50

anthropic IPO coming up soon because you're going to mint a bunch of billionaires who are going to

anthropic 即将到来的 IPO，因为你会捧出一堆亿万富翁，他们将会

65:54

who have these exactly the passions you're talking about and exactly the interests who are

他们恰好有你说的这些热情，也恰好有这些兴趣，他们正是

65:58

yes i mean they're already on the cap table to some extent i mean i are already on the cap table with

对，我是说他们某种程度上已经在 cap table 上了。

66:02

the company and i think in the on the campaign finance cap table so there's i mean like

我是说，他们已经在这家公司的 cap table 上了，而且我觉得在竞选资金的 cap table 上也是。

66:06

people like Eric Schmidt who's a big investor anthropic because he's a huge democratic donor

所以就是说，像 Eric Schmidt 这样的人，他是 Anthropic 的大投资者，因为他是个非常大的民主党捐款人；还有 Dustin Moskowitz，你知道，他是这家公司最早的投资者之一，也是个非常大的民主党捐款人。

66:10

Dustin Moskowitz who was you know uh one of the earliest investors in in the company

嗯，不过这些 IPO 会创造出来的资源，会造就很多人，他们不一定非得是亿万富翁。

66:15

and is a huge democratic donor um uh the the resources though that's going to be

但是你知道，Anthropic 是一个非常关心公共事务的群体——当然这是非常宽泛地一概而论——但你知道，这些人是可以轻松捐出一百万的。

66:20

created by these IPOs are going to mint a lot of people who are not necessarily even billionaires

这些IPO创造出来的财富将会造就很多甚至不一定是亿万富翁的人

66:26

but uh you know it's a it's a very civically minded uh community of people at anthropic as a casting

但呃你知道这是一个非常有公民意识的呃人群在anthropic，作为一个整体来说

66:33

with a massively broad brush but like you know these are people who could easily give a million

用非常宽泛的笔触来说但就像你知道这些人本可以轻松捐出一百万

66:37

or two million or three million dollars and i know that democratic fundraisers are also

或者两百万、三百万美元，而且我知道民主党筹款人也都在

66:41

watching the anthropic IPO closely with the kind of the hope that um there's going to be a lot of

密切关注 Anthropic 的 IPO，抱着那种希望，嗯，会有很多

66:47

you know 30 year olds who are going to make a ton of money and are going to want a host

你知道，30 岁的人会赚一大笔钱，然后会想要做东

66:51

you know uh Josh Shapiro when he comes to San Francisco for example right um you mentioned

你知道，呃，比如 Josh Shapiro 来 San Francisco 的时候，对吧，嗯，你刚提到

66:56

dark money before i mean is there a version of the next i mean i suppose this is the version

dark money，我的意思是，有没有一种下一个……我是说，我猜这就是那个版本

67:00

of the next cycle where a lot of the people who are on the list right now are spending the same

下一个周期的版本，现在名单上的很多人花着同样的

67:04

kind of money but they're keeping it much more secret yeah at the huge caveat to everything i've

那种钱，但他们把它保密得多得多。对，对我所说的一切有个巨大的前提

67:09

said um which is that i am very um curious and and and hopefully self aware about the amount that we

嗯，那就是我对我们所……的量非常，嗯，好奇，而且，而且，而且希望能清楚意识到我们……的量

67:19

don't know yeah what's about what's happening in the space um i've been running about this kind

不知道，是啊，这个领域现在到底在发生什么，嗯……我断断续续搞这个差不多有十年了，嗯，现在披露反而比以往任何时候都少，尤其是在民主世界，现在那么多政治献金都流向非营利组织，而且你知道，读一份竞选财务报告简直就像被一堆名字像字母汤一样的非营利组织淹没，什么 Americans for America ink，所有这些组织都像是你读这东西前两周才成立的，然后突然冒出一个 3000 万美元的 super pack，从 Americans for Americans ink 拿到这笔捐款，你就会想，是啊，这到底是怎么发生的，嗯，现在这是一种挺有吸引力的参与政治的方式，尤其是在 Trump 时代，很多 Democrats 都……

67:24

of on and off for 10 years now and there is less disclose than ever um especially in the democratic

断断续续已经十年了而现在披露的信息比以往任何时候都少呃尤其是在民主

67:31

world where we're so much political giving now happens to nonprofits and and you know to read

世界里我们现在有那么多政治捐款流向非营利组织而且你知道读

67:38

a campaign finance report is just to be inundated with like an alphabet soup of nonprofits that are

一份竞选财务报告就是被淹没在像字母汤一样的非营利组织里那些

67:44

you know americans for america ink all these groups started like two weeks before you're reading

你知道“Americans for America ink”所有这些团体在你读那份东西前两周才成立

67:49

the thing and like suddenly there's a super pack that is 30 million dollars that got this donation

然后突然之间有一个三千万美元的super PAC从“Americans for Americans ink”那里

67:54

from americans for americans ink and it's like yeah how that happened um and that's an attractive

拿到了这笔捐款然后你就会想是啊那是怎么发生的呃而这很有吸引力

68:01

way of kind of engaging in politics now is a especially in the trump era where lots of democrats are

现在参与政治的方式，尤其是在特朗普时代，很多民主党人是

68:06

are fearful about investigations or you know trump regularly threatens big democratic and progressive

会害怕被调查，或者，你知道，Trump 经常威胁那些民主党和进步派的大金主，而且你知道，他盯上了 Harvard 和其他 Ivy League 机构，针对它们的慈善捐赠，还试图扣住科研经费；所以有一个完全正当的理由让我觉得，自由派害怕 Trump 政府，并想让他们政治捐款更多被遮掩、搞得神神秘秘、保密，但坏处是现在没人真正了解这些东西。而且，嗯，呃，没有一个非营利组织上了那份参考名单，因为它们都……实在太多了，老实说，就像，就像，就像，你知道，八月成立的、每个都捐了 1000 万美元的不同非营利组织的数量，是，是，你完全可以有自己的……

68:13

donors and you know he's gone after Harvard and other Ivy League institutions for philanthropic

捐赠者，你知道他针对哈佛和其他常春藤盟校，因为他们的慈善

68:18

gifts and i tried to withhold research money there's the so a holy legitimate reason why i think

捐款，我试图扣留那里的研究经费，所以有一个冠冕堂皇的理由让我认为

68:22

liberal sphere the trump administration and want to have their political giving be more shroud

自由派领域，特朗普政府想要让他们的政治捐款更加隐蔽

68:27

in suki chic in secrecy but the downside is no one really knows much about about this stuff now and

低调而保密，但缺点是现在没人真正了解这些东西

68:33

and um uh none of the nonprofits made the list of referencing because they were all it's so there's

而且，呃，没有一个非营利组织上了引用名单，因为它们都是——所以

68:38

so many of them honestly it's like it's like it's like the the the number of different nonprofits that

说实话有太多了，就像，就像，就像那些不同的非营利组织的数量

68:43

started in you know august that each donated 10 million dollars is is could you could have your own

在你知道的八月份成立的，每个都捐了一千万美元，是是你可以有自己的

68:48

list made of just that all right well on that very cheering note today i want to thank you for

清单就是由这些组成的。

68:52

coming by and talking to us about this stuff uh you could find teddies work um as well as errands

好吧，就在这么令人振奋的基调上，今天我想感谢你过来和我们聊这些东西。

68:57

uh on the new york times app where you can also watch or listen to every episode of the azure

呃，你可以在 new york times app 上找到 teddies 的作品，呃，还有 errands。

69:01

client show um thanks for coming on teddy you bet this episode of hard fork was produced by

在那儿你也可以观看或收听 the azure client show 的每一集。

69:21

Whitney Jones and soya roque and edited by veeran povich with additional editorial support from

呃，谢谢你来做客，teddy。当然。

69:26

Brendan clinkinburg Lisa Tobin and Brooke mentors we were fact-checked by Will Pyshel and engineered

这集 hard fork 由 Whitney Jones 和 soya roque 制作，由 veeran povich 编辑，Brendan clinkinburg、Lisa Tobin 和 Brooke mentors 提供额外编辑支持。

69:32

by elissa moxley original music by elisha bit youtube marion lasano dianne wong elissa moxley and

我们的事实核查由 Will Pyshel 负责，音频工程由 elissa moxley 负责。

69:39

dan powell our assistant video editor this week is Rebecca blondone with additional video production

原创音乐由 elisha bit、youtube、marion lasano、dianne wong、elissa moxley 和 dan powell 负责。

69:44

by chris shop you can watch this full episode on youtube at youtube.com slash hard fork special

由 chris shop 制作，你可以在 YouTube 上观看这期完整节目，网址是 youtube.com slash hard fork special

69:50

thanks to sam dolnec jessica testa we went to him maddie messiella zack called well dave mayors

感谢 sam dolnec、jessica testa，我们去找了他，maddie messiella、zack called well、dave mayors

69:57

syrgen stoyikovich chris mor tamas trudo sematha winter michael cordero andalya hidad

syrgen stoyikovich、chris mor、tamas trudo、sematha winter、michael cordero、andalya hidad

70:03

if you have any questions or comments or want to give us a piece of your mind find us at

如果你有任何问题或评论，或者想跟我们说说你的想法，可以在这里找到我们：

70:07

new york times dot com slash hard fork you can also email us hard fork at new york times dot com

new york times dot com slash hard fork，你也可以发邮件到 hard fork at new york times dot com

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