Hard Fork
Are We in an A.I. Bubble? We're About to Find Out.
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如果你的团队想要一个看起来和感觉上都像是手工打造的网站，但又能快速上线，
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Framer 正是为此而生。Framer 是 AI 网站构建器，帮助创作者、
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团队和企业以前所未有的速度交付生产级网站，同时把每个细节都做到位。
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Prompt, inspect, edit, and publish in one place at a whole new pace.
在一个地方完成 prompt、inspect、edit 和 publish，节奏全新升级。
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了解如何从 Framer 专家那里让你的网站发挥更大价值，或者今天就开始
00:23
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免费构建，访问 framer.com slash hard fork，Framer Pro 年度计划享 30% 折扣。
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Rules and restrictions may apply. In a few weeks, we're finally going to get some answers on whether
规则和限制可能适用。几周后，我们终于会得到一些答案，关于是否
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we're in an AI bubble. That's because the Frontier Lab Anthropic is going public. Anthropic gets
我们正处在AI泡沫里。这是因为前沿实验室Anthropic要上市了。Anthropic获得
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ready to make its Wall Street debut as the AI giant anthropic. That's the company's AI giant
准备好以AI巨头Anthropic的身份在华尔街首次亮相了。这就是该公司的AI巨头
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anthropic file papers today. It might raise $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation and
anthropic今天提交了文件。它可能会以2万亿美元的估值融资1000亿美元，而且
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rescue a whole slew of companies floundering in the dead market. Or it might raise a lot less
拯救一大批在死气沉沉的市场中挣扎的公司。或者它可能筹到的钱少得多
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and send the entire stock market into a tailspin. We just to say a lot is riding on this IPO.
然后让整个股市陷入混乱。我们只想说，这次IPO承载了太多东西。
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The near future of the American economy, the medium future of the tech industry,
美国经济的近期未来，科技行业的中期未来，
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and given that the risk factors in Anthropics S1 include catastrophic and existential risk to humanity,
而且考虑到Anthropic的S1文件中列出的风险因素包括对人类的灾难性和存在性风险，
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maybe even the long-term future of the human race. At a minimum, the Anthropic IPO will mark
也许甚至关乎人类的长期未来。至少，Anthropic的IPO将标志着
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the end of an era. The venture investment driven, hype accumulating startup phase of the AI
一个时代的终结。由风险投资驱动、不断累积炒作的AI世纪初创阶段
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century is nearing completion. But what comes next? In today's episode, we're going to try to wrap
正接近尾声。但接下来会发生什么？在今天的节目中，我们将试着
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our minds around the most important company in the economy, at least for now, and look at what's
理解经济中最重要的公司——至少目前如此——并审视什么是
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at stake in its big moment. Are we in a boom or a bubble? Will tech's big bet on data centers
在这个重要时刻，关键是什么？我们是在繁荣还是泡沫中？科技行业对数据中心的大赌注
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work out or fizzle? And can Silicon Valley's most militant AI believers be a normal public company?
会成功还是失败？硅谷最激进的AI信徒能成为一家正常的上市公司吗？
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Or are we entering a new era of AI hype, mysticism? I'm Max Reed. This is Hard Fork.
还是我们正在进入一个AI炒作和神秘主义的新时代？我是Max Reed。这是Hard Fork。
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We are live in studio with Aaron. Okay, that's a really good start. We are here in studio with Aaron
我们在演播室直播，和Aaron一起。好，这是个非常好的开始。我们在演播室和Aaron
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Griffith. It's so good to see you in person. Yeah, likewise. There are two big developments in the
Griffith在一起。很高兴见到你本人。是啊，我也是。本周Hard Fork宇宙有两个重大进展。
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Hard Fork universe this week. First is that you finally followed me on Instagram. Oh, yeah.
第一是你终于在Instagram上关注我了。哦，是啊。
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We can get to that later. Maybe in a segment. Yeah, I was on the fence. Yeah, well,
这个我们后面可以聊。也许放在某个环节里。对，我当时还挺犹豫的。对，嗯，
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there's a lot of referendums that we're going to talk about today. I think that was an important one.
今天有很多公投要聊。我觉得那个是很重要的一个。
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The second thing I want to talk about is that Anthropic announced its intent to go public,
我想聊的第二件事是，Anthropic宣布了其上市意向，
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which means the rubber is finally hitting the road after however many years it's been of hype and
这意味着经过这么多年的炒作之后，终于要动真格的了，而且
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doom saying an argument you have been reporting on Anthropic and the AI world for a long time.
doom 说的一个论点，你一直在报道 Anthropic 和 AI 世界的事情，已经很久了。
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And I wanted to sort of pick your brain about this company today because this feels like a huge
今天我想跟你聊聊这家公司，因为感觉这是一个巨大的
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inflection point for AI, for tech, for the stock market, the economy, humanity. Yeah, just the
AI的拐点，对科技、对股市、对经济、对人类而言。对，就是那个
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stakes are only that high. Yeah, exactly. So what is writing on this? I mean, everything.
风险就只有那么高。对，没错。那这上面写的是什么？我是说，所有东西。
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Everything. I mean, I think that was our headline was nearly everything. Practically speaking,
所有东西。我是说，我觉得那就是我们的头条——几乎所有东西。实际上来说，
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this is the first pure play like LLM, large language model company to go public to open its
这是第一家纯粹做LLM、大语言模型的公司上市，来公开它的
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book so we can actually look at the underlying business of this AI boom that has been going on for
book，这样我们才能真正看看这场已经持续了一段时间的AI热潮背后的底层商业
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four years and attracted trillions of dollars and investment and sort of reoriented our entire economy
四年来，吸引了数万亿美元的投资，几乎重新调整了我们整个经济的走向
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around itself. And Anthropic alongside OpenAI and arguably Gemini from Google are kind of the
围绕它自身。而Anthropic与OpenAI以及可以说谷歌的Gemini，算是那种
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companies that are driving this. They're like the pillars that are you could call that I've heard
推动这件事的那些公司。它们就像是支柱，你可以这么说，我听说过
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many metaphors. Okay, you could call them the bottom piece of the Jenga tower. I've heard them
很多比喻。好吧，你可以把它们叫做Jenga塔的最底层。我听说过这些
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described as like, you know, the tip of a pyramid with like a bunch an entire ecosystem of companies
被描述为，你知道的，就像金字塔的顶端，下面有一大堆、一整个公司生态系统
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supporting it. But either way, like they are sort of the quintessential AI companies. And now,
支持它。但不管怎样，它们算是那种典型的AI公司。而现在，
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for the first time, we have kind of a look at the underlying business model that so much money has
我们第一次得以一窥这么多资金背后所依托的底层商业模式
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gone into. So are the investors you talking to? Are they nervous about the IPO? Are they worried
已经进去了。那你聊的那些投资人呢？他们对IPO紧张吗？他们担心吗
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about what might come out of it? Well, I mean, last week, they were definitely nervous. Now,
关于可能会从中得出什么结果？嗯，我是说，上周他们肯定很紧张。现在，
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we've had a day or two to kind of look at these numbers and see and some of them have leaked already
我们已经有一两天时间来研究这些数字了，有些数据已经泄露出来了
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along the way. So we had kind of a sense, but this is the first time we see like in a 300 plus
一路走来。所以我们大概有个感觉，但这是我们第一次看到像在300多
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page document, the full picture of what Anthropics business looks like. So let's go there. What are the
page document，Anthropic 业务的全貌。那我们就去那儿。什么是
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sort of big important things that we can take away from the S1? Okay, well, first of all, I guess it's
从S1里我们能总结出哪些重要的大事情？好吧，首先，我猜是
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okay to say that business looks kind of healthy. I mean, it's arguable. There are people that have,
可以说业务看起来还算健康。我是说，这有争议。有些人确实，
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you know, made the case that it's not. But I think like generally speaking, people have been kind
你知道，论证了它并不是。但我觉得一般来说，人们一直挺友善的
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of pleasantly surprised to see that this company is capable of making money. And I mean, when we've
令人 pleasantly surprised 地看到这家公司有能力赚钱。而且我的意思是，当我们已经
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seen how much money these companies have raised over the years, we've seen how much they've been
看到这些公司这些年来融了多少钱，我们看到他们一直
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spending to build their AI products, I think the general consensus has been like these companies
在构建他们的AI产品上的支出，我认为普遍的共识一直是像这些公司
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can never make money. And just to be clear, Anthropic posted an 80 billion dollar net loss.
永远赚不到钱。而且说清楚一点，Anthropic公布了800亿美元的净亏损。
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So maybe let me unpack that a little bit. An 80 billion dollar net loss seems insane. But it's
所以也许让我稍微展开说一下。800亿美元的净亏损看起来简直离谱。但它是
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actually kind of a weird accounting quirk where they have to count some convertible debt that they
其实算是个挺奇怪的会计处理方式，他们得把一些可转换债券算进去，而他们
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issued to some of their shareholders as a net loss. And that will essentially be cleared in the
作为净亏损发放给部分股东。而这基本上会在
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next quarter or by the time they go public. And so that's not a reflection of their health of
下个季度或者到他们上市的时候。所以这并不能反映他们的健康状况
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their actual business. What we've actually seen is that they in the first half of this year had an
他们实际的业务。我们实际看到的是，他们在今年上半年有一个
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operating loss of around six to seven hundred million dollars. And that's shrinking from the
运营亏损大约在六到七亿美元之间。而且这个数字相比之前的
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same period last year where it was like over two billion dollars. So they're shrinking their losses
相比去年同期的二十多亿美元。所以他们在缩减亏损
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of the actual business that they're operating on the flip side. They are still showing out
在实际运营的业务方面。但另一方面，他们仍然在支出
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enormous sums of money and they're on the hook for enormous sums of money to build out their AI
巨额资金，而且他们还承担着巨额资金的责任来建设他们的AI
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infrastructure. So this is the data centers, the chips, the compute power, the very, very expensive
基础设施。所以这就是数据中心、芯片、算力，那些非常非常昂贵的
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stuff that they need to keep training new models and to support the old models. So like it's
东西，他们需要用来持续训练新模型并支持旧模型。所以就像
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kind of Dario has talked about how the company is sometimes on a knife's edge when it's making
Dario 谈到过公司有时候处于刀刃边缘，当它在做
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these decisions and signing these deals. And so they have signed so many contracts in anticipation
这些决定以及签下这些协议。所以他们已经预期性地签了非常多的合同
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of the demand. And it's like a very high risk game. If the demand's not there, then they're going
需求的。这就像一场高风险的博弈。如果需求不在，那他们就会
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to be sitting on all these contracts. And so many of them are non-cancellable. If the demand
手里握着这么多合同。而且其中很多是不可取消的。如果需求
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is there and they don't have enough, then they're going to be losing business. And so that's kind
有没有，而他们又不够，那他们就会流失业务。所以这就是一种
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of what's like underlying all of this is like how much AI are businesses and people going to be
这一切的背后，本质上是企业和个人到底会多大程度地使用AI
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using and has the company, you know, basically laid the groundwork for that. Right. I mean, it's
使用并且让公司，你知道，基本上为此奠定了基础。对。我是说，这
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interesting because on the one hand, the S1 seems to confirm that there's an enormous amount
有意思，因为一方面，S1似乎证实了存在大量
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of demand. I mean, we're talking about 16.3 billion dollars in revenue for the first half of
需求的。我是说，我们谈的是上半年163亿美元的营收，
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2026. And that is an enormous amount of growth too. Like, you know, we're seeing a company grow
2026年。这也是一个巨大的增长幅度。就像，你知道的，我们看到一家公司在增长
06:45
14X. I mean, that is insane, especially for a company of this size. So we've never, I mean,
14X。我是说，这太疯狂了，尤其是对于这种规模的公司来说。所以我们从来没有，我是说，
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I hate to like say unprecedented, but it feels like we haven't seen a company growing like this
我真不想说什么前所未有，但感觉我们确实没见过一家公司这样增长
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there before. Right. So we can say there's demand for this, right? But with a question that you're
之前就有。对。所以我们可以说这方面是有需求的，对吧？但有个问题是你在
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saying is we don't actually know how much it is. And it might be that there's more even
说的是我们其实不知道那有多少。而且可能还有更多，甚至
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than we've already seen. It might be that there's actually less. But we're building a certain number
可能比我们已经看到的还要多。也可能实际上更少。但我们在建立一个特定的数量
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of computers. I mean, to be very simple about it. No matter what. We're building a lot of computers
关于计算机。我的意思是，说得简单点。不管怎样。我们在造很多计算机
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out there in the desert. And andthropic has committed a ton of money to those computers.
在沙漠里。而且Anthropic已经往那些计算机上投入了大量资金。
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And so is that the biggest risk they're facing? Definitely. I mean, this is, I think what everyone's
那这是他们面临的最大风险吗？绝对是。我是说，我觉得这就是大家
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looking for. And so the S1 that we saw did not have Q3 numbers in it. And they've already kind of
正在寻找的。所以我们看到的S1里没有Q3的数据。而他们已经有点
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previewed those numbers to their investors. And our reporting and others have shown that the growth
向他们的投资者预告了那些数字。而我们的报道和其他人的报道都显示，增长
07:30
is actually slowing in the third quarter. And that's because first half of the year,
实际上在第三季度正在放缓。这是因为今年上半年，
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cloud code just was growing like crazy. They basically took the entire industry by storm and everybody
cloud code 增长得非常疯狂。他们基本上席卷了整个行业，所有人
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is using their coding product. Now competitors like open AI are starting to catch up. Companies
都在用他们的编程产品。现在像 open AI 这样的竞争对手开始追上来了。各公司
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are trying to pull back on how much they're spending on tokens because they realize that token
都在试图减少他们在 token 上的支出，因为他们意识到 token
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maxing got out of control. And so the growth is a little bit slowing and they're getting some
maxing 已经失控了。所以增长稍微有点放缓，他们也在得到一些
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competition from open source models or cheaper options. And so I think in Q3, they grew 44%. And so
来自开源模型或更便宜选项的竞争。所以我认为在Q3，他们增长了44%。所以
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that's pretty significant slowdown from again, gangbusters growth down to like just just great
这相比之前那种爆炸式增长放缓得相当明显，降到了只是只是很不错
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growth. But is that going to continue on that trajectory? And that case, okay, the growth story
的增长水平。但这种情况会沿着那个轨迹继续下去吗？而在那种情况下，好吧，增长故事
08:12
isn't like as exciting. And perhaps demand isn't, you know, going to be through the roof forever.
就没那么令人兴奋了。也许需求不会，你知道，永远高得离谱。
08:17
So that's one question investors are looking at. And I think just in general,
所以这是投资者正在关注的一个问题。而且我认为总的来说，
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they're looking to see how in topic explains that slowdown because if anthropic just comes in and
他们想看看Anthropic如何解释这种放缓，因为如果Anthropic就这样进来然后
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says like the whole market is pulling back. That's very, very bad for this whole ecosystem. The
说整个市场都在回调。这对整个生态系统来说非常非常糟糕。
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Django tower or the pyramid that I'm talking about for like, you know, all the demand and all the
Django塔或者我说的那个金字塔，就是关于所有的需求以及所有的
08:35
investments that everybody is making, all the debt that everyone's taking out to build the stuff out.
所有人都在做的投资，所有人为了把这些东西建起来而背负的所有债务。
08:39
If the reason that the growth is slowing is just because of competition, because open AI or
如果增长放缓的原因只是因为竞争，因为OpenAI或者
08:43
open source companies, you know, companies are kind of eating market share, but the demand is
开源公司，你知道，这些公司正在抢占市场份额，但需求是
08:47
still growing. Then like great party on the AI, you know, boom continues to boom. So they're looking
还在增长。然后就像AI界的盛大派对，你知道，boom还在继续boom。所以他们在看
08:53
for new avenues for growth potentially. They're trying to sell different stories about what the next
为了潜在的新的增长途径。他们试图讲述关于下一个的不同故事
08:58
big product is. Yeah. And I think we're going to see this on the road. So I'll be watching that
大产品是。对。而且我觉得我们会在路上看到这个。所以我会关注那个
09:02
pretty closely. I think that's going to kick off in probably a week or so.
非常接近了。我觉得大概一周左右就会启动。
09:05
Before you start, what is a roadshow? So in a week or so, anthropic is going to basically go on
开始之前，什么是roadshow？所以大概一周左右，anthropic基本上要去做
09:09
this tour where they meet with all the public market investors and kind of tell their story. And
这次路演，他们会见所有公开市场的投资者，讲述他们的故事。而且
09:14
they call that a roadshow. The bankers kind of take them around on a little private jet and they're
他们把这叫做路演。银行家们会带着他们坐私人飞机到处飞，然后他们就
09:18
you know, meeting with like insurance companies in Iowa or whatever and telling them about
你知道，跟爱荷华州的保险公司之类的见面，跟他们讲关于
09:24
the machine God. So that's going to be just like kind of amusing on its own. But you know,
机器之神。所以这本身就挺有意思的。但是你知道，
09:29
they need to tell I think a new growth story because they're going to say, okay, we had this like
他们需要讲一个我认为是新的增长故事，因为他们会说，好吧，我们曾经有这个像是
09:33
coding product. That's incredible. But like it's already kind of showing slowing down and growth.
编程产品。这太不可思议了。但就像它已经有点显示出放缓和增长了。
09:37
What's our next growth story? Well, they believe that AI is going to, you know, solve many many
我们下一个增长故事是什么？嗯，他们相信AI将会，你知道，解决很多很多
09:41
many problems in the world. And so one of the stories that they're pitching to investors now is
世界上有很多问题。所以他们现在向投资者推销的故事之一就是
09:45
this bio thing, you know, AI is going to cure cancer. Like AI is going to develop new drugs. So that's
这个bio的东西，你知道，AI会治愈癌症。就像AI会开发新药一样。所以那就是
09:50
like a big story. They're going to probably be pitching. And then they have other products to like,
就像一个宏大的故事。他们可能会去推销。然后他们还有其他产品，比如，
09:53
you know, legal tech or like other other ways that AI is going to kind of disrupt the economy beyond
你知道吧，法律科技或者类似的其他方式，AI会在这些方面对经济产生超越性的颠覆
09:57
just coding, which has been again, like a blockbuster hit for them. Right. One thing I want to talk
就是编程，这对他们来说又是一个爆款。对。我想聊的一点
10:03
about with the S1 is the 93 page risk factor section. So you've read a lot of best ones before.
关于S1，是那93页的风险因素部分。所以你之前读过很多最好的了。
10:09
Are they every every word of everyone just to be clear? Obviously, in your capacity as a reporter.
他们是不是每个人的每一个字都听？说清楚点。显然，是以你作为记者的身份。
10:14
Are they usually 90 pages long? I mean, they're usually pretty long. And it's a lot of legal ease.
它们通常有90页长吗？我是说，通常都挺长的。而且里面有很多法律术语。
10:18
It's just like a lot of ask covering basically. I mean, it's like it's basically anticipating all
就像很多问题基本上都涵盖了。我是说，这基本上就是在预判所有
10:23
the potential things that shareholders could get mad and sue over and saying, we warned you.
股东们可能会生气并起诉的潜在问题，并且说，我们警告过你了。
10:28
Right. Exactly. And there's a lot of those for Anthropical. I'm just going to read a couple of
对。没错。而且Anthropical有很多这类东西。我就读几个
10:31
them right now. They're very unique in their specificity. Let's just say. Yeah. And I would say too,
他们现在。他们在具体性上非常独特。就这么说吧。是的。我还要说，
10:36
it's funny reading them. If you've been following AI for a while, like it's kind of like getting six
读这些挺有意思的。如果你关注AI有一段时间了，就有点像得到六个
10:40
years of Twitter and blog posts and sub stack like compressed into like a document of legal ease
多年的Twitter和博客文章和substack之类的，就像被压缩成了一份法律文书一样的文档
10:47
because they're listing everything from, you know, the resource constraints on building out
因为他们把所有东西都列出来了，你知道的，从构建时的资源限制开始
10:50
compute to the various sort of AI safety problems to just sort of like your basic business problems
算力用于各种AI安全问题，也包括你基本的商业问题
10:56
with, you know, customer satisfaction. But the ones that cat my eye, for example, are concerns
比如说，你知道，客户满意度。但真正引起我注意的，举个例子，是一些担忧
11:01
have been raised both within our organization and by other researchers that sufficiently advanced AI
在我们组织内部以及其他研究人员都提出了这样的担忧：足够先进的AI
11:06
systems could, if not developed, deployed and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight
系统如果在开发、部署和运营过程中没有适当的保障措施和监督，就可能
11:12
and security measures, post catastrophic or existential risks to humanity. This is a pretty rare kind
以及安全措施，防范灾难性或存在性风险对人类造成威胁。这是一种相当罕见的类型
11:18
of thing to do. Another one that I was really was really, can we just go back to that really quick
那种要做的事情。另一个我真的真的，我们能不能快速回到那个话题
11:22
though? Because one thing that the great Matt Levina Bloomberg pointed out was that this is written
不过呢？因为Bloomberg的Matt Levin指出的一个重要问题是，这是写于
11:26
in passive voice. It's not Anthropic saying we think that our products, it says like some people
在被动语态里。不是Anthropic说我们认为我们的产品，而是说有些人
11:34
may be saying within our organization. Some people, I don't know if it's our founder and president
可能是在我们组织内部说的。有些人，我不知道是不是我们的创始人和总裁
11:40
Dario Amadeh or anybody, but some people have raised this question. Who could it be? Yeah. Another
Dario Amadeh或者任何人都行，但有些人提出了这个问题。会是谁呢？是啊。另一个
11:44
one that I like is, in addition, considerations relating to model safety, interpretability, alignment
我喜欢的一个是，此外，还有与模型安全、可解释性、对齐相关的考量
11:50
and welfare may lead us to limit or delay the deprecation of older models. So just to translate that
而福利方面的考量可能会促使我们限制或推迟旧模型的弃用。所以只是把这一点翻译一下
11:56
a little bit, when they're talking about model welfare, that's, they think the models might be alive
有一点点，当他们谈论模型福利的时候，那是，他们认为模型可能是有生命的
12:00
and they're not ever going to shut down some of the product lines because they want to make sure
他们永远不会关停某些产品线，因为他们想确保
12:03
they get taken care of. Like I missed this one. Yeah. I have to credit Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg
他们会得到照顾的。就像我漏掉了这一个。是的。我得感谢Bloomberg的Joe Weisenthal
12:08
for picking this one up. They're not, they're not saying this out loud, but they're saying,
谢谢你选了这一个。他们没，他们没明说，但他们在说，
12:12
consider relations relating to welfare may lead us to limit or delay the deprecation of older
考虑到与福利相关的关系可能会让我们限制或推迟旧版本的弃用
12:16
models. This is a little like Apple saying the iPhone 12 is alive. So we're just going to keep
models。这有点像Apple说iPhone 12还活着。所以我们就继续
12:21
making it forever. Oh my god. Imagine trying to explain that to some like, you know, analyst at
让它永远存在。天啊。想象一下试着向某个，你知道，分析师解释这个，在
12:27
Goldman Sachs and be like, we need to put this in here. I mean, the thing that I wonder about a lot
Goldman Sachs也会说，我们得把这个加进去。我是说，我经常琢磨的一件事
12:31
is how much people who are spending their time talking to chatbots all day start to buy into
就是那些整天花时间跟chatbots聊天的人，开始有多买账
12:37
and belong to this stuff. And so you actually will have activist investors who are saying, you know,
而这属于这一类东西。所以实际上会有激进投资者说，你知道，
12:41
we have to make sure that we're taking care of model welfare and whatever else. This is a future
我们必须确保我们关注model welfare以及其他类似的问题。这是一个未来的
12:45
coming soon. Well, the activist investors won't have a whole lot of ability to do much because of
即将到来。嗯，维权投资者们不会有太大的能力做什么，因为
12:51
the governance of the company. Yeah, let's, I actually want to get into this. Well, but let's start
公司的治理。对，我们，我其实想深入聊聊这个。好吧，但咱们先开始
12:55
before we get there. Let's start with just a quick word about the founders because this is a
在我们开始之前。让我们先简单介绍一下创始人，因为这是一个
13:00
company that has a really specific philosophy around AI risk and AI safety that's sort of the core,
一家对AI风险和AI安全有着非常具体理念的公司，这算是他们的核心，
13:04
not just the core of the business, but it's kind of their origin story. I'm sure a lot of people
不只是业务的核心，某种程度上也是他们的起源故事。我相信很多人
13:08
familiar, but will you just give us the 22nd version of where Anthropic comes from? Sure. And
熟悉，但你能不能直接给我们讲讲Anthropic起源的第22个版本？当然。还有
13:12
this is kind of the story of AI also, you know, Google is working on AI, Elon Musk and Sam
这也有点像AI的故事，你知道，Google在做AI，Elon Musk和Sam
13:18
Altman see it and they're like, man, I don't think they care enough about the future of humanity.
Altman看到这个，他们就说，天哪，我觉得他们对人类的未来不够关心。
13:22
So they start split off and start open AI. And they're like, we're going to build AI, but we're
于是他们分裂出来，创办了OpenAI。他们说，我们要打造AI，但我们——
13:26
going to do it for the good of humanity. We're the principled ones. And then within open AI,
会为了人类的利益去做这件事。我们是有原则的。然后在OpenAI内部，
13:31
Dario and all of his friends are looking around and saying, wait, Sam doesn't care enough about
Dario和他所有的朋友都在四处张望，说，等等，Sam对……不够在乎
13:37
the future of humanity. We need to build the safe AI before they can. So they split off and do that.
人类的未来。我们需要在他们之前构建安全的AI。所以他们分出去做那件事了。
13:41
And that has kind of continued on down the line. So that's where Anthropic is. Their roots are
而这一传统可以说一直延续了下来。所以这就是Anthropic的处境。他们的根源在于
13:46
truly in like AI safety. And they are the probably most extreme on that spectrum of like their fears
真正在AI安全方面很投入。而他们大概是那个光谱上最极端的，就是他们的恐惧
13:53
inside the company at the top of the company and you know around it. Well, let's talk about how this
在公司内部，在公司高层，你知道，围绕这个。好吧，我们来谈谈这如何
13:56
relates to governance because they have this very unique governance structure. I'm like losing my
这跟治理有关，因为他们有这种非常独特的治理结构。我有点忘了我的
14:03
voice now. And hopefully they can use some AI to like make my voice sound less gravely.
现在的声音。希望他们能用一些AI让我的声音听起来没那么沙哑。
14:10
Yeah. So Anthropic is kind of following a trend that has been happening for the last 15
嗯。所以Anthropic在某种程度上是在跟随过去15
14:15
years at tech companies, which is that founders want to retain control even while selling shares,
在科技公司工作多年，我发现创始人都想保留控制权，即使是在出售股份的时候也是如此，
14:21
which would in general, you know, the classic form of governance means that if you sell shares,
这通常来说，你知道，经典的治理形式意味着如果你出售股份，
14:27
those shareholders get more control. This started kind of goes back to Mark Zuckerberg
那些股东获得更多控制权。这其实可以追溯到Mark Zuckerberg
14:31
and his multiple class of shares. But Anthropic has taken it even a little bit further.
还有他的多重股权结构。但Anthropic在这方面走得更远了一些。
14:36
They have five classes of stock. Their seven founders have 50.1% voting share. You know,
他们有五类股票。他们的七位创始人拥有50.1%的投票权。你知道，
14:43
they're going to be in charge of electing all the directors to the board. And then they also have
他们将负责选举董事会的所有董事。然后他们还有
14:47
this like independent trust that controls the majority of the board seats. And so it's like a
这就像一个独立的信托机构，控制着大多数董事会席位。所以这就像一个
14:52
little bit convoluted. And I think it's no one's going to push back on this because over the years
有点绕。而且我觉得这不会有人反对，因为这么多年来
14:57
every time startups have tried to do this, investors have made a big stink about it. Like, oh,
每次创业公司尝试这么做的时候，投资人都会大做文章。就像，哦，
15:01
no, we hate this. And then they just go along with it anyways. And so like it hasn't yeah,
不，我们讨厌这个。然后他们还是照样配合了。所以就像它并没有，是啊，
15:06
there has there has not been a line in the sand even with SpaceX. They were a little bit more
甚至SpaceX也没有划过一条明确的界限。他们稍微更
15:10
extreme about that. Some of the exchange are some of the indexes tried to put their foot down
对此非常极端。一些交易所，一些指数试图表明立场
15:15
and then at the end of the day, they're just like, I find. So this is not necessarily new in Silicon
然后到最后，他们就是这样，我觉得吧。所以这在硅谷未必是新鲜事
15:19
Valley, but it is for Anthropic seems to be distinctly sort of connected to the AI safety philosophy
Valley，但对Anthropic来说，这似乎明显是与AI安全理念相关联的
15:25
at the heart, which you should say. I'm not sure we said it out loud, but like really specifically
从核心上讲，你应该说出来。我不确定我们有没有大声说出来过，但就是非常具体地讲
15:29
Anthropic is the company that believes most strongly in the possibility of total AI
Anthropic是最坚信全面AI可能性的公司
15:34
annihilation, Armageddon. And additionally, believes most strongly in the possibility that the
annihilation、Armageddon。而且，还最强烈地相信这样一种可能性：
15:38
LLMs are alive or conscious or sentient in someone. Yes. And they lay out that they believe
有人说LLM是有生命的、有意识的或者有感知的。是的。然后他们阐述说，他们认为
15:43
their founders are best suited to sort of shepherd this into the world in a way that, you know,
他们的创始人最适合以某种方式引导这件事进入世界，你知道，
15:49
is is a little self-aggrandizing when I was reading. And I was like, wow, you guys are special. And
我读的时候觉得这有点自我膨胀。我当时就想，哇，你们真特别。而且
15:53
I guess you are because you're at the helm of a potentially two trillion dollar company,
我猜你们确实特别，因为你们掌舵着一家潜在价值两万亿美元的公司，
15:58
but you know, they are even able to like name their successors. They have a secret list of
但你知道，他们甚至能够指定自己的继任者。他们有一份秘密的
16:02
successors that they all have to approve if like somebody leaves the board. And so they're setting
继任者名单，如果董事会有人离开，他们都必须批准。所以他们在设定
16:06
this up to be in control of it forever. They don't want to lose control of the AI or of the company.
这一切都是为了永远掌控它。他们不想失去对AI或公司的控制权。
16:12
Yeah. I want to return to the philosophy, the sort of question of the philosophy because one of the
对。我想回到哲学层面，回到那个哲学问题，因为其中一个
16:16
questions I have about Anthropic is, you know, beyond this governance structure here, to what extent
我对Anthropic有的问题是，你知道，除了这里的治理结构之外，在多大程度上
16:22
is there, are there philosophical commitments around AI safety? Like, how do they inform the company
AI安全方面有没有什么哲学上的承诺？它们是怎么影响公司的？
16:28
itself or inform the business decisions or do they? Well, I think in the beginning, it was a huge
还是为商业决策提供信息，还是说它们真的做到了？嗯，我觉得一开始，这是一个巨大的
16:34
piece of the company because it was the only place where they could get money. Regular Silicon
公司的一部分，因为那是他们唯一能拿到钱的地方。Regular Silicon
16:39
Valley investors were kind of viewed the company as a science project for the first couple years
硅谷投资人最初几年有点把这家公司当成一个科学项目来看待
16:43
and the only place that they could find money was from people like Sam Beckman Fried,
他们唯一能找到钱的地方就是像Sam Beckman Fried、Jan Tallinn这样的人
16:47
Jan Tallinn, people who were like deeply enmeshed in the EA kind of philosophy in that world. And
那些深深扎根于EA哲学那个圈子的人
16:53
then their first product was very specifically and purposefully like an enterprise business product.
然后他们的第一个产品非常明确且刻意地是一个企业级商业产品
16:59
They weren't building something for consumers. They weren't trying to build an AI companion
他们不是在为消费者做东西。他们也不是在试图做一个AI伴侣
17:02
necessarily. And that has proven to be an incredible business. And then when the VCs got word of
而事实证明那是一个极其出色的商业模式。然后当VC们听说
17:08
that, they were like, oh, great. Let's dump all the money in. And most of those VCs that came in
那个，他们就说，哦，太好了。咱们把钱全砸进去吧。而那些进来的VC大部分
17:13
later are looking at this as an enterprise software SaaS business. And they're not really that
later are looking at this as an enterprise software SaaS business. And they're not really that
17:18
hung up on the philosophy. They're like, yeah, we like that we're back in the good guys, the good guys.
还在纠结哲学层面的问题。他们就像是，对啊，我们喜欢这样，我们又回到好人这边了，好人。
17:23
But they don't really buy into this sort of stuff that's a little bit more weird about them.
但他们并不怎么买账那些关于他们更古怪一面的东西。
17:29
The woo woo stuff. Yeah. I mean, is there a word for like AI woo woo?
那些玄乎的东西。对。我是说，有没有一个词专门形容AI玄学之类的？
17:34
No, I don't think there is. Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's very interesting because you could look at
不，我不认为有。对，没错。我是说，这非常有意思，因为你可以看看
17:42
all the decisions that they've made from the governance structure on down to like the specific
他们所做的所有决策，从治理结构一直到具体的
17:45
things that they're doing. And you could tell a story where it's all about their philosophy.
他们正在做的事情。你可以讲一个故事，完全围绕他们的理念来展开。
17:49
It's all about their fear of AI or their belief in AI. But you can also tell a story that this is
这完全是关于他们对AI的恐惧或对AI的信仰。但你也可以讲一个这样的故事，那就是这
17:53
just a very straightforward smart Silicon Valley company that wants founders want to retain control.
就是一家非常直接、聪明的硅谷公司，创始人想保留控制权。
17:58
It wants to be very efficient. It wants to clear path to profitability through, you know,
它想要非常高效。它想要打通通往盈利的道路，通过，你知道，
18:01
enterprise sales and not trying to become the next Facebook or whatever. And it seems like investors.
企业销售，而不是试图成为下一个Facebook之类的。而且看起来投资者。
18:06
And that's certainly what the investors that I talked to say, like I remember when Jacob
而这正是我交谈过的投资者们所说的，就像我记得当Jacob
18:11
Cox and quit and everyone was kind of freaking out about like, yeah, it's going to kill us all
Cox和quit，大家都挺慌的，就像，是啊，这会把我们全干掉
18:14
on mentioning this to some of their investors. And then sort of being like, oh, yeah, you know,
在跟一些投资人提到这件事的时候。然后大概就是，哦对，你知道的，
18:19
hacking, that's a big risk. We're definitely worried about cybersecurity. But like, I don't really know
黑客攻击，这是个很大的风险。我们确实担心网络安全。但怎么说呢，我也不太清楚
18:23
what you're talking about on the other stuff. Like, we're not worried about that.
你那边说的那些东西，我们不担心那个。
18:26
Let's zoom out a little bit. So, you know, this feels as we were saying before like an inflection
我们稍微把视角拉远一点。所以，你知道，这感觉就像我们之前说的，是一个拐点
18:30
point, like we've spent the last half decade in this in this big time hype moment, VC's executives,
重点是，就像过去五年我们一直处在这个巨大的炒作时期，风投、高管们，
18:36
researchers are selling this crazy story of a technology that's going to change everything.
研究人员在推销一个疯狂的故事，说这项技术将改变一切。
18:41
Now we have a big document with a lot of real numbers in it. And pretty soon,
现在我们有一份包含大量真实数字的大文档。而且很快，
18:45
we're going to know what the stock price of Anthropic is. So how would you characterize this?
我们会知道Anthropic的股价是多少。那你会怎么形容这件事？
18:49
What is happening right now with the IPO? What questions are being asked and what questions
现在IPO那边到底是什么情况？大家都在问些什么问题，还有哪些问题
18:53
are being answered? I mean, it is sort of like a demystifying moment because we have,
正在被解答吗？我的意思是，这有点像是一个揭晓谜底的时刻，因为我们有，
18:58
you know, seen these companies in the private market get these trillion dollar valuations
你知道吧，看到这些公司在私募市场拿到这些万亿美元的估值
19:02
in such a short time. And it's kind of being set by like a handful of VCs, right? And so like,
在这么短的时间内。而且这有点像是被几个VC设定的，对吧？所以说，
19:06
yes, VCs believe in the in this company, but they also believed in the metaverse and like a lot
是的，VC们相信这家公司，但他们也相信过元宇宙之类的很多东西
19:11
of crypto stuff and that has not worked out. And so this will be the first time that we have like
of crypto stuff and that has not worked out. And so this will be the first time that we have like
19:17
Wall Street and public market investors and, you know, pension fund investor, all the professional
华尔街和公开市场的投资者，还有，你知道，养老金基金投资者，所有那些专业
19:22
money managers like modeling out the financials of this company and deciding whether it's worth
像理财经理那样，把这家公司的财务状况建模出来，然后判断它值不值得
19:26
investing at a true two trillion dollar valuation or maybe 1.5 trillion. And so that's part of it.
按真正的两万亿美元估值投资，或者也许1.5万亿。所以这是其中一部分。
19:32
It is like, we're actually going to see like some some real evaluation of the company,
就像是，我们真的要看到对这家公司的一些真正的评估了，
19:37
although I guess you could also argue that Wall Street sometimes invests on high-pum momentum too
不过我猜你也可以说，华尔街有时候也是靠高强度的势头来投资的
19:40
as we've seen many stocks. So like, who knows? But in general, this is like a time when we're finally
正如我们所见，很多股票。所以谁知道呢？但总的来说，这就像是一个我们终于
19:46
getting like to look inside the business that's underlying the AI boom and decide whether or not
想深入了解支撑AI热潮的业务底层，然后判断是否
19:52
it is, you know, a valuable contributor to our economy because there are a lot of people out there
它是我们经济中有价值的贡献者，因为外面有很多人
19:56
that that think it's not. Yeah. So what are you looking for in the weeks after the IPO?
那那觉得不是。对。那你IPO之后的几周在找什么？
20:02
Whether or not AI kills us all. Big question. Still on everyone's mind. You know, I doubt that
AI会不会把我们全干掉。大问题。大家还是都在想这事。你知道，我对此表示怀疑
20:09
that's going to be talked about too much on the road show. I mean, I'm sure that there are some
这也会在路演上被讲太多次。我是说，我确信有一些
20:13
advisors at Goldman and Morgan Stanley who have been telling Dario like let's let's
高盛和摩根士丹利的顾问们一直在跟Dario说，咱们咱们
20:18
let's reel it back on the on the old extinction talk. I mean, should I invest in a company that
我们还是把话题拉回到那个老生常谈的灭绝讨论上吧。我是说，我应该投资一家
20:24
has a 10% chance of killing everybody? I mean, it's in the risk factor. So you can't say they didn't warn you.
有10%的概率杀死所有人？我是说，这写在风险因素里了。所以你不能说他们没警告过你。
20:31
There was a Wall Street Journal headline arguing if the headline is the bull case for A
有一条《华尔街日报》的标题在争论，如果这个标题就是A的看涨理由
20:36
Armageddon for investors mulling exactly. For investors mulling the anthropic sheriff offering
对投资者来说简直是末日，他们正在仔细考虑。对于正在仔细考虑Anthropic sheriff offering的投资者来说
20:41
a 10% chance of extinction, maybe a 90% win for your portfolio. How can you argue with that?
10%的灭绝概率，也许对你的投资组合来说有90%的胜算。你怎么能反驳这个？
20:47
Really? If you're going to die, you're going to die. But if you can be in there. Yeah, exactly.
真的吗？如果你要死，那就是要死。但如果你能在那里。对，没错。
20:52
Aaron, thank you for coming into the studio and talking to you anthropic. We're going to take a
Aaron，谢谢你来到演播室，和我们聊聊 Anthropic。我们将要做一个
20:56
break and then we'll be back with Mike Isaac and Jasmine Sun to talk about the rest of the
休息一下，然后我们回来会和Mike Isaac和Jasmine Sun聊聊剩下的
20:59
week's news in tech. 33 presidents. I called the president and asked for 30 in the morning
本周科技新闻。33位总统。我早上打电话给总统要30个
21:32
and he answered seven decades in space. We want to see what's beyond the next star.
他回应了太空七十年。我们想看看下一颗星星之外有什么。
21:36
60 Super Sundays. They were probably the best team in the league every single year.
60个超级星期天。他们可能每年都是联盟里最好的球队。
21:40
53,500 puzzles. I use a different starting word every day. 25,000 recipes.
53,500个谜题。我每天用不同的起始词。25,000个食谱。
21:47
And I love a one-pan recipe because I don't love washing pans.
我喜欢一锅出的食谱，因为我不喜欢洗锅。
21:50
The New York Times celebrating 175 years of helping you understand the world.
《纽约时报》庆祝175年来帮助你理解世界。
21:55
Subscribe now for a special offer at nytimes.com slash subscribe.
现在订阅可享特别优惠，请访问 nytimes.com slash subscribe。
22:02
We're back with Aaron Griffith and joined by tech writers Mike Isaac and Jasmine Sun.
我们回来了，Aaron Griffith 也在，还有科技记者 Mike Isaac 和 Jasmine Sun。
22:07
Mike and Jasmine, we were just talking about the anthropic S1.
Mike 和 Jasmine，我们刚才在聊 Anthropic 的 S1。
22:11
Mike, what was your big takeaway from the filing?
Mike，你对这份文件最大的收获是什么？
22:14
I thought it was like way front loaded with rosier sort of paintings of AI at the top
我觉得它前面部分对 AI 的描绘比过去乐观得多。
22:20
compared to the past. You guys tell me, but I feel like Dario Amadeus painted
你们告诉我吧，但我觉得 Dario Amadeus 描绘的
22:27
as the biggest doom and gloom guy of AI in the valley and my perception was everyone around
作为硅谷AI界最悲观的人，我的感受是周围的每个人
22:35
and was like, hey, you need to pump the brakes on this a little bit, especially as we're getting
然后就说，嘿，你得在这件事上稍微踩踩刹车，尤其是当我们越来越
22:40
the average person or trying to get the average person excited about it. So the whole top was like,
普通人或者试图让普通人对它感到兴奋。所以整个开头就像是，
22:45
hey, by the way, we do want to cure cancer. We do want to create these amazing drugs.
嘿，顺便说一句，我们确实想治愈癌症。我们确实想创造出这些了不起的药物。
22:52
And then they back into, oh, it has like a 10% chance of blowing up the entire world basically.
然后他们又绕回到，哦，它大概有10%的概率 basically 把整个世界炸掉。
22:58
But I don't know, someone told me to mjaz hands a little bit at the top, right?
但我不知道，有人让我在顶部稍微调整一下手势，对吧？
23:02
Yeah, I mean, how much do you think it was like worked over?
嗯，我是说，你觉得它被改了多少？
23:04
Like, I was interested that the adjective they use at the very top is,
我挺感兴趣的，他们最开头用的那个形容词是，
23:08
he says, we believe that AI is one of the most consequential technologies in human history,
他说，我们相信AI是人类历史上最具影响力的技术之一，
23:12
which is a very funny, neutral adjective, right? Consequential goes a lot of ways.
这个形容词很有意思，很中性，对吧？影响力这个词可以往很多方向解读。
23:16
And it's not necessarily how I would be selling my product.
而且这也不一定是我推销自己产品时会用的说法。
23:19
We should do like a real close reading of all the language in this because I do feel like Dario
我们应该好好细读一下这里面所有的措辞，因为我确实觉得Dario
23:24
is like definitely a micromanaging control control enthusiast, let's say. And like every word probably
可以说是绝对是个喜欢微观管理的控制狂，这么说吧。而且大概每个词
23:33
has a few different nested meanings in there for sure.
里面肯定都嵌套着好几层不同的含义。
23:36
Jasmine, what was your big takeaway from the S1 if you had one?
Jasmine，如果让你说一个从 S1 里得到的大收获，是什么？
23:39
Yeah, I mean, kind of similar to what Mike said. I was just thinking about how
嗯，我的意思，跟 Mike 说的差不多。我当时就在想
23:43
Anthropic has a very odd relationship to money and being a for-profit company.
Anthropic 跟钱以及作为一家营利公司的关系非常奇特。
23:49
Like the founders, when they broke off from OpenAI, they spent a bunch of time debating whether
就像创始人从 OpenAI 出来的时候，他们花了很多时间争论到底要不要
23:53
they should be a non-profit or a for-profit. Of course, they have invented some crazy
他们应该是非营利还是营利性的。当然，他们发明了一些疯狂的
23:57
multi-layered governance structure as they all do, which is something they reinforce law
多层治理结构，就像他们所有人一样，这是他们强化法律的东西
24:01
in the letter that the founders have pledged 80% of their equity to charity. The employees
在信中，创始人们承诺将80%的股权捐给慈善机构。员工们
24:06
have all this interesting matching. There's a famous culture fit interview that all of the Anthropic
有所有这些有趣的匹配。有一个著名的文化契合度面试，所有Anthropic的
24:11
employees go through where they say, hey, would you work here if your equity went to zero? And they
员工会经历这样一个环节，他们会问，嘿，如果你的股权归零了，你还愿意在这里工作吗？而他们
24:15
make sure that everybody's size is asked before they accept the job. And so, mostly it just made me
确保在每个人接受工作之前都问清楚他们的体型。所以，主要是这让我
24:20
think about how weird they are about the status of being a sort of profit-seeking corporation.
想想他们对作为一个逐利企业这件事有多别扭。
24:26
I know. I can only imagine what the meetings with the bankers were like, you know, I mean,
我知道。我只能想象跟银行家开的那些会是什么样，你知道，我是说，
24:29
I assume the meetings with the investors were very similar. How do you tell a labor union that we're
我猜跟投资人的会也差不多。你怎么跟工会说我们
24:33
going to be post-money in like three hours? I think that's hard so.
大概三小时后就要变成 post-money 了？我觉得这挺难的，所以。
24:39
This is coming, by the way, like in the midst of a little bit of anxiety, and let's call it a
顺便说一句，这事儿来的时候，市场正有点焦虑，咱们就叫它
24:44
jittery moment in the market. The elections are next week, and I really want to talk to you guys
一个紧张不安的时刻吧。选举就在下周，我真的很想跟你们聊聊
24:48
about what we're looking at and what we're waiting to see. Jasmine, what are you tracking for the
关于我们正在关注什么以及我们期待看到什么。Jasmine，你在追踪什么，针对这个
24:56
midterms next week? Yeah, I mean, these are interesting midterms, because I think it's the first
下周是期中考试吗？对，我是说，这些期中考试挺有意思的，因为我觉得这是第一次
25:00
election where people's feelings about AI, about data centers could plausibly have shown up.
一场选举，人们对AI、对数据中心的感受本来有可能在其中显现出来。
25:05
I mean, I think the top level on it is even though we saw a lot of discourse, a lot of anger about
我的意思是，我觉得最顶层的一点是，尽管我们看到了很多讨论，很多愤怒关于
25:10
data centers in particular that's been building up over the last year, I did some reporting on it
尤其是data centers，这个问题在过去一年里不断累积，我之前对此做过一些报道
25:15
over the summer in Wisconsin and Michigan, two states where data centers were actually a really
去年夏天在Wisconsin和Michigan，这两个州的数据中心实际上是一个非常
25:20
big factor in the primaries. In the majority of states, I don't think they are yet shifting
初选中的一个重要因素。在大多数州，我认为他们还没有转变
25:25
people's votes. They're an extreme, they're an 80-20 issue in the sense that people feel very
人们的投票。他们是极端的，这是一个80-20的问题，意思是人们非常
25:29
negatively about data centers. People feel very negatively about AI. This is bipartisan, and in
对数据中心持负面看法。人们对AI的感受非常负面。这是两党共识，而且在
25:33
that sense, it seems like a unicorn, but it's also not something that is quite salient yet. I've
从这个意义上说，它看起来像独角兽，但也不是那种已经非常显眼的东西。我
25:38
looked at, you know, a million polls, and AI usually ranks like 22 out of 39 issues. Oh my god.
看了，你知道，上百万份民调，AI通常排在39个议题里的第22位左右。我的天哪。
25:46
It's like even in states like Ohio or Pennsylvania, where data centers are a big issue, I think it's
就像即使在俄亥俄州或宾夕法尼亚州这样的地方，data centers是个大问题，我觉得这是
25:51
usually something like between one or five percent of voters will list it as their number one thing.
通常大概有百分之一到百分之五的选民会把它列为他们最关注的头号议题。
25:56
We're seeing data centers really impact your mayoral election. We're seeing recall campaigns,
我们看到数据中心确实在影响你们的市长选举。我们看到罢免运动、
26:01
city council, reshuffles. I don't think a big Senate race is going to be determined by data center
市议会、改组。我不认为一场重要的参议院选举会被数据中心
26:06
sentiment. This came across in the reporting you were doing. This is a really municipal issue,
情绪所决定。这在你做的报道中有所体现。这真的是一个市政层面的问题，
26:11
and it's going to get a lot of town managers voted out and council board selectmen or whatever
它会让很多城镇经理被投票赶下台，还有议会、董事会、selectmen之类的
26:15
else. But it's interesting because this was, at least in the summer, it felt like this was a
其他职位。但有意思的是，因为这至少在夏天的时候，感觉这是一个
26:20
focus of some Senate campaigns. Some Senate campaigns were in fact putting a lot of resources into
一些参议院竞选活动的重点。事实上，一些参议院竞选活动投入了大量资源来
26:24
being anti-data center. Do you think that was wasted money? Or is it, is it just not the ultimately
反对数据中心。你觉得那是浪费钱吗？还是说，这根本就不是最终
26:29
the issue that matters? I mean, I think it really depends. I think there are races where there's
真正重要的议题？我是说，我觉得这真的要看情况。我认为有些选区确实
26:33
they're close enough. And rural voters in particular, you can get a lot of normal rural Republicans
足够接近。尤其是农村选民，如果数据中心就建在他们家后院，
26:39
or low turnout voters to maybe turn out if there's a data center in their backyard. I think
你可能会让很多普通的农村共和党人或低投票率的选民出来投票。我觉得
26:43
the races that people are really concerned about, Sherrod Brown and Ohio might stay to come back
大家真正担心的那些选情，比如Sherrod Brown和俄亥俄州，可能会留下来卷土重来
26:48
in particular because of data centers or a big motivation for Greg Abbott to restrict
特别是因为数据中心，或者说这也是Greg Abbott限制的一个很大动机
26:54
approvals and connections to the electricity grid, even though he's been very, very project-build.
审批和接入电网，尽管他一直非常非常注重项目建设。
26:58
He's been welcoming the data centers for years, but because of a potential threat from both his
他多年来一直欢迎数据中心的到来，但由于来自他两方面的潜在威胁
27:03
democratic opponent, plus all of these rural techs and farmers who are like, what's up with these
民主党的对手，再加上所有这些农村科技人士和农民，他们都在想，这些人到底怎么回事
27:08
power lines and data centers? He actually did a pseudo moratorium, which because he was worried
电力线和数据中心？他实际上搞了个伪暂停令，因为他担心
27:14
about the midterm. So I think there are a few elections in purplish states where data centers
关于中期选举。所以我觉得在一些偏摇摆的州有几场选举，涉及数据中心
27:21
could swing things. But the other thing I'm tracking is data centers are very concrete,
可能会改变局势。但我另外在关注的另一件事是，数据中心是非常具体的，
27:26
whereas AI generally still feels so abstract to people that I'm not really sure if data centers
而AI对人们来说总体上仍然感觉太抽象了，我不太确定数据中心是否
27:32
are barely swinging some elections. I'm not sure that AI in general is going to be a voting issue
勉强能影响一些选举结果。我不确定AI总体上会不会成为一个投票议题
27:37
yet, even though some people suspect it. Yeah, I mean, it's a very funny, as you say, if you're
然而，尽管有些人怀疑这一点。是的，我是说，这很有趣，正如你所说，如果你
27:43
on Twitter, or if you're reading too much about this, it does feel like a life or death issue.
在Twitter上，或者如果你读太多关于这个的东西，确实感觉像是个生死攸关的问题。
27:47
Certainly it is for some people writing introductory letters to S1's, but as you say,
当然，对某些人来说，写介绍信给S1是可行的，但正如你所说，
27:52
it hasn't really trickled down, except in a indirect way through the effect on the economy of AI.
它并没有真正渗透下来，除了通过对AI经济的影响以一种间接的方式。
27:59
Mike, what about you? Are you tracking anything in the election next week?
Mike，你呢？你在关注下周选举的什么事情吗？
28:02
You talked about this in last week's episode a little bit with the head of policy at Metta
你在上周的节目里跟Meta的政策负责人稍微聊过这个
28:06
leaving and sort of imagining which new regime of like, you know, democratic operatives they
离职的事，还设想了他们可能会用什么样的新一批，你知道，民主党的操盘手
28:13
might replace them with. But I just want to see if there's a white guy. No, of course I am a
来替换他们。但我就是想知道有没有一个白人男性。不，当然了我是一个
28:18
loyal hard fork listener. That's right. That's where we got one. You've got one. Let's get to
忠实的Hard Fork听众。没错。这就是我们找到一个的地方。你找到了一个。让我们进入
28:23
two by the end of it. I'll get my wife to listen. I do. I do. I really, really want to see
到最后会有两个。我会让我老婆听听。我真的。我真的。我真的很想看看
28:32
the theater of all the tech companies that have been trying to cater to Republicans.
所有那些一直试图迎合共和党人的科技公司上演的一出戏。
28:37
Suddenly be like, actually we love the new democratic, potentially democratic regime in all of
突然间就像，其实我们喜欢新的民主的、潜在民主的政权，在所有
28:42
these states. And because they have a hold on, again, potentially have a hold on Congress,
这些州。而且因为他们有影响力，再次强调，可能对国会有影响力，
28:47
this is what we really believe in. You know, I think these swings are valuable because it sort of
这是我们真正相信的东西。你知道，我觉得这些摇摆是有价值的，因为它有点像是
28:51
shows, you know, these are corporations that don't necessarily believe in anything except self-preservation
你看，这些公司除了自我保全之外，不一定信奉任何东西
28:56
a lot of the time. Yeah. I mean, what are you seeing any indications besides say, so we're talking about
很多时候。是的。我是说，除了你说的之外，你还看到什么迹象吗？我们在聊
29:01
Joel Kaplan, who is the head of policy at Facebook for 15 years has been a sort of conservative whisperer.
Joel Kaplan，他在 Facebook 做了 15 年的政策负责人，算是某种保守派的传声筒。
29:06
He announced his departure last week. Are you seeing any other kind of movements that suggest a
他上周宣布离职了。你还看到其他什么动向吗，暗示着
29:10
little bit of, I don't know what I don't know how to put it at team switching or sort of, you know,
有一点，我不知道该怎么说，团队转换或者，你知道的，
29:15
trying to try to make inroads among, you know, among Democrats? I think all of the companies are
试图在，你知道的，在民主党人中建立关系？我觉得所有公司都在
29:21
looking hard at their DC teams and saying, who do we need to sort of elevate and put out front?
仔细审视他们的 DC 团队，说，我们需要提拔谁、把谁推到前面？
29:28
They're never going to like cut all of their conservative sort of, you know, relations people
他们永远不会把那些保守派的、你知道，关系人全都砍掉
29:34
or whatever. But it's sort of like, actually, look at this guy, the guy who wears a blue pin
或者随便什么。但这有点像，其实，你看看这家伙，那个戴蓝色徽章的家伙
29:38
instead of a red one or whatever. That's like, that is, that's all the companies. And like,
而不是红色的或者别的什么。这就像是，那就是，那就是所有的公司。而且就像，
29:43
that's just the game, I guess I shouldn't be so cynical, but it is worth looking at and see.
这就是游戏规则吧，我想我不该这么愤世嫉俗，但它确实值得一看究竟。
29:47
Why wouldn't you be saying, this seems like exactly the right thing to be cynical.
那你为什么不干脆说，这看起来正是应该愤世嫉俗的时候。
29:51
Yeah. And do you feel like there's a, there's a shift? I mean, I think we all are aware of what
嗯。你觉得是不是有一种转变？我是说，我想我们都意识到了什么
29:58
felt like, I'm sorry to use such immaterial language here, a vibe shift in Silicon Valley
感觉就像是，抱歉我在这里用了这么虚的说法，硅谷几年前的一种氛围转变。
30:03
years ago. Is there a vibe shift swinging back? I mean, if any of you feel like that might happen
有没有一种氛围转变正在摆回来？我是说，如果你们有人觉得那可能会发生
30:08
or is it, is this, was that was the first vibe shift in illusion? I mean, I've seen headlines
或者是不是，这是，这是，那是第一次氛围转变只是幻觉？我是说，我见过一些标题
30:14
to that effect, but I think like Mike said, it's going to be a little bit more on the DC side of
是那个意思，但我觉得就像Mike说的，这更多会是在DC那一侧
30:19
things because I mean, just from my perspective, a lot of the VCs were really excited to be able
因为我是说，就我的视角来看，很多VC真的很兴奋能够
30:26
to not care about stuff like that Democrats care about, like DEI. Culturally, it seems like we're
不用关心民主党关心的那些东西，比如DEI。从文化上看，我们似乎
30:32
kind of going to be still in that, in that vibe. Yeah, it doesn't seem like best changed.
大概还是会那种氛围吧。嗯，感觉 best 好像没怎么变。
30:38
Jasmine, we were talking before you were taping about, like, a sense that there's,
Jasmine，我们录之前聊过，就是有种感觉，
30:41
there's a question about how Republicans are going to react to this. They're likely to lose
关于共和党会怎么反应，存在一个问题。他们很可能会失去
30:45
the House of Representatives. There's going to have to be a shift in how they approach AI
众议院。他们在硅谷对待 AI 监管的方式上得有所转变。
30:49
regulation in Silicon Valley. Totally. Yeah, I mean, this is one of the big open questions I have
完全同意。是啊，我是说，这是我对 2028 初选的一大未解疑问之一。
30:54
about the 2028 primary two. I mean, primary season's going to start basically two weeks from now
我是说，初选季基本上两周后就要开始了
31:00
and our JD Vance and Marco Rubio going to break from Donald Trump's extremely, extremely
而我们JD Vance和Marco Rubio要跟Donald Trump极其、极其
31:06
unpopular positions on AI regulation and data centers, right? Like, in spite of the vast,
关于AI监管和数据中心的不受欢迎立场，对吧？就像，尽管有大量的，
31:11
like the majority of Republican voters do want to regulate AI. They would prefer slower with
像大多数共和党选民一样，他们确实希望监管AI。他们更倾向于放慢节奏
31:16
more safeguards versus some kind of abstract and material beat China narrative. And yet,
更多的保障措施，而不是某种抽象和实质性的beat China叙事。然而，
31:22
basically every Republican in Congress or every Republican leader has been unable to say any of
基本上国会里的每一位共和党人或每一位共和党领袖都无法说出任何一个
31:29
that because the president sort of sets what the party line is. And if the Republicans take
因为总统在某种程度上决定了党的路线。而如果共和党拿下
31:35
a beating in the midterms, I could imagine some more folks deciding to break off and say, like,
中期选举惨败之后，我能想象会有更多人决定脱离出去，然后说，就像，
31:40
actually, like our constituents are angry at data centers, they're worried about kids safety
其实，我们的选民对数据中心很愤怒，他们担心孩子的安全
31:44
if they're social conservatives. But I am starting to see a bit of a split in the Republican
如果他们是社会保守派的话。但我开始看到共和党内出现了一些分裂
31:49
party between the more traditional libertarian, free market, letter-up types who are still very
在更传统的自由意志主义、自由市场、letter-up类型的人之间的派对上，他们仍然非常
31:57
excited about deregulation versus some of the more new right folks. I was, I spent the weekend
对放松监管感到兴奋，而一些更偏新右翼的人则不然。我当时，我整个周末都在
32:02
with some folks from American Compass, the new right think tank. And they are all thinking, actually,
和American Compass的一些人聊过，那是新右翼智库。他们都在想，实际上，
32:07
maybe after the midterms, this is a time for the Republican party to get serious about AI
也许中期选举之后，这是共和党认真对待AI的时候了
32:12
regulation on kids' jobs, safety, things like that. Were they saying AI or were they saying SI?
关于孩子工作、安全之类的监管。他们说的是AI还是SI？
32:18
It was actually really funny. It was, um, it was a Chattamhouse workshop that there's a split
其实特别好笑。那是一个Chatamhouse的研讨会，当时出现了分歧
32:23
in the room and then you could tell there's a bit of an internal tension between the folks from
在房间里，然后你能感觉到来自那些人之间有一点内部紧张关系
32:26
the admin and other places who were saying SI and the folks who were a little bit too staunchly,
管理员和其他地方那些说SI的人，还有那些有点过于坚定的人，
32:33
we're not caving to that. I've never seen a better metaphor for people talking over each
我们不会向那个让步的。我从没见过比这更好的比喻来形容人们互相抢话。
32:39
other and not being able to communicate than not even being able to agree on what we're calling
比起甚至无法就我们所说的内容达成一致，彼此之间无法沟通反而还好一些
32:44
this thing. It's kind of amazing. Yeah. So one of the issues on the ballot next Tuesday is this
这个东西。挺神奇的。是的。所以下周二选票上的一个议题就是这个
32:50
tax in California on billionaires. Aaron, can you explain what the proposition is, what the
California对亿万富翁征税。Aaron，你能解释一下这个提案是什么，以及这个
32:57
measure is? I mean, I think we can all guess, but why are Silicon Valley so interested in
衡量标准是什么？我是说，我觉得大家都能猜到，但为什么硅谷对
33:02
this tax on billionaires? Yeah. I mean, it's been actually pretty fascinating. Prop 40 is a proposed
对亿万富翁征税？是的。我是说，这实际上挺有意思的。Prop 40是一项拟议的
33:09
one-time 5% billionaire tax on wealth, including unrealized gains. That means private startup stock
一次性征收5%的亿万富翁财富税，包括未实现收益。这意味着私有初创公司的股票
33:19
for billionaires in California and as you can imagine, the billionaires are a little bit mad about
对于加利福尼亚的亿万富翁们来说，你可以想象，这些亿万富翁对此有点生气
33:26
it. And so what better way to fight back than to use their vast wealth? And so they've gathered
it. 所以还有什么比用他们庞大的财富来反击更好的办法呢？于是他们聚集了
33:32
this group that we reported on building a better California has gathered $333 million, which is
这个我们报道过的“建设更好的加州”组织已经筹集了3.33亿美元，这
33:38
so, so, so much to fight a state proposition. Mostly from Sergei Brin, but then he brought in John
so，so，so，为了对抗一项州提案花了这么多钱。主要来自Sergei Brin，但后来他把John也拉进来了
33:45
Dorr and Patrick Collison, the founder of Stripe, John Dorr's a very famous VC investor from
Dorr和Stripe的创始人Patrick Collison，John Dorr是一位非常有名的VC投资人，来自
33:50
Kleiner Perkins. And so they have been over the last couple of months recruited this like kind of
Kleiner Perkins。所以他们在过去几个月里招募了这批有点像
33:55
who's who of Silicon Valley, like very high-powered famous VC's founders, many of whom are not even
硅谷的名流云集，都是非常有影响力的著名VC和创始人，其中很多人甚至都不是
34:03
billionaires. There's some like mere 100 millionaires and even billionaires. Yeah. And you know,
亿万富翁。有些只是区区百万富翁，甚至亿万富翁。是的。而且你知道，
34:11
aspiring billionaires, but they're mad about this for a number of reasons. You know, they think it's
有抱负的亿万富翁们，但他们因为很多原因对这件事很生气。你知道，他们认为这
34:16
poorly written that they don't believe that it's going to be a one-time tax. They don't like how the
写得这么差，他们不相信这会是一次性的税。他们不喜欢这个
34:20
money's actually going to, like the money's not, you know, specifically earmarked well enough to do
钱其实会，不是说钱没有，你知道，专门划拨得不够明确去做
34:26
the things that they say they're going to do and they don't trust, they basically just don't trust
他们说要做的那些事，他们不信任，基本上就是完全不信任
34:29
the politicians to do the right thing with it. And so they're really mad about it. And they don't
政客们用它来做正确的事。所以他们对这件事非常生气。而且他们不
34:33
like the press that in its sense because California is kind of known for, you know, as being a trendsetter.
就像媒体在那方面的意义，因为加州有点以，你知道，作为引领潮流者而闻名。
34:39
And so they're worried that it's going to turn into this cat and mouse game where other states are
所以他们担心这会变成一场猫鼠游戏，其他州也会
34:42
going to do it. And because a lot of them have already left the state, but they're mad about
打算这么做。而且因为他们很多人已经离开了这个州，但他们对此很生气
34:46
essentially the principle of it. The principle of the math. Yes. Yeah. They believe that, you know,
基本上就是它的原理。数学的原理。是的。对。他们相信，你知道，
34:51
this is going to hinder aspiring billionaires, founders, builders from moving to California and
这会阻碍有抱负的亿万富翁、创始人、建设者搬到加州，并且
34:58
wanting to, you know, get rich. And so I think, you know, there's a lot of reasons that they're fighting
想发财嘛，你知道的。所以我觉得，你知道的，他们争斗的原因有很多。
35:04
it and they're all kind of like banding together and getting on these weekly calls and like talking
它 and 他们基本上都联合起来，每周开这些电话会议，然后讨论
35:09
about their strategy and like one of the really interesting things that we found in our reporting was
关于他们的战略，我们在报道中发现的一件非常有意思的事情是
35:13
like they are aware of how it looks. They, they, there's this quote in one of the documents that
就像他们意识到这看起来是什么样子。他们，他们，其中一份文件里有这样一句话
35:20
they're circulating to other donors that says billionaires are seen as having a net negative
他们在向其他捐赠者传话说，亿万富翁被认为净负面影响
35:25
impact across issues. So they're not trying to be the face of this. They don't want to be out front.
影响各个议题。所以他们并不想成为这件事的代表人物。他们不想站在前面。
35:32
They're, they're not like, you know, talking publicly about this. Like they might, if there were
他们，他们不像，你知道，公开谈论这个。他们可能会，如果有
35:36
some other like, you know, any issue, like including data centers, they are trying to go through
其他什么，你知道，任何问题，比如包括数据中心，他们正试图通过
35:43
other groups that they're partnering with. Like a plan parent head is a really big one that they're
他们合作的其他团体来推进。比如Planned Parenthood是一个很大的合作对象，他们
35:47
working with to kind of that's opposed to it. And so why, sorry, why is plan parent opposed to it?
正在与之合作，而那个组织是反对这个的。那么为什么，抱歉，为什么Planned Parenthood反对这个？
35:53
I mean, for some of the same reasons, it's not sustainable. This one time taxing is like
我是说，部分原因是一样的，这不可持续。这种一次性征税据说
35:58
supposed to make up for some of the Trump administration and they don't believe that it's, you know,
是为了弥补特朗普政府的一些东西，而他们不相信这是，你知道，
36:04
it's not setting them up in a position to like be sustainable going forward. So they just
这并不是在让他们处于一个未来能够可持续发展的位置。所以他们只是
36:08
think it's poorly written. I think a lot of the people that are opposed to it are not opposed the
我觉得它写得不好。我觉得很多反对它的人并不是反对那个
36:13
idea of a wealth tax, including actually some people that I spoke with for this story. They,
财富税的想法，包括实际上我为这篇报道采访过的一些人。他们，
36:18
they just think this is a crappy one. And they wish that it was better, like that it was just
他们只是觉得这个很烂。他们希望它能更好，就像它只是
36:24
structured better and made more sense. But do you feel like they're always going to say that?
结构更清晰了，也更有道理了。但你觉得他们是不是总会这么说？
36:28
I feel like it's always a, well, this bill is poorly written. And if they could only legislate it
我觉得这总是个，嗯，这个法案写得不好。如果他们能把它立法的话
36:33
better. I just feel like I've heard that from Andreessen or whoever a million times, you know what I'm
好一些了。我就是觉得这话我从Andreessen或者谁那儿听过一百万遍了，你懂我
36:37
saying? Totally. It's, I mean, it's, it's almost sort of like respectability politics where it's like,
意思吧？完全同意。这，我是说，这，这几乎有点像那种体面政治，就是那种，
36:41
I like, I agree with your message, but I don't like how you're doing it. Yeah. I was interested
我，我同意你的信息，但我不喜欢你做事的方式。对。不过我对
36:46
to learn that about the about plan parenthood, though, because I hadn't, I hadn't realized that this
Planned Parenthood那件事挺感兴趣的，因为我之前没，没意识到这
36:49
was more than just a, a cabal of billionaires plotting against it. No, there's like a bunch of,
不仅仅是一小撮亿万富翁在密谋对付它。不，有一堆，
36:53
I mean, ever since I wrote this story weirdly, my phone has been blowing up with like, you know,
我是说，自从我写了这篇报道之后，奇怪的是，我的手机就一直响个不停，你知道的，
36:59
political tax messages from different groups. And there's like a lot of healthcare groups that
来自不同群体的政治税收信息。还有很多医疗保健团体
37:03
have wind up against it. That's interesting. Yeah. I mean, from a democratic point of view,
have wind up against it. 这挺有意思的。是啊。我是说，从民主的角度来看，
37:09
this is a nonpartisan podcast, of course. From a democratic point of view, it's sort of nice to put
这是一个无党派播客，当然。从民主的角度来看，把
37:13
one of these ballot measures on every year so that the billionaires all get distracted and focus
每年都有这么一项投票议案，好让那些亿万富翁都分心去关注
37:17
on that instead of putting money around the country. The way you want muskets. That's pretty good
在那上面，而不是把钱撒到全国各地。你想要火枪的方式。那挺不错的
37:21
game theory. Yeah, there you go. Feel free to call me, you know, Senate political action committees.
博弈论。对，这就对了。随时给我打电话，你知道的，参议院政治行动委员会。
37:28
There's one other big thing I want to talk about today. And that is the, is what is being called Black
今天我还想聊另一件大事。那就是所谓的Black
37:33
October, the phone apocalypse, the PHP vulnerability discovered last week. Mike, I'm going to put you
October，手机末日，上周发现的PHP漏洞。Mike，我要把你
37:39
on the spot. Can you explain? Obviously, we all know what PHP is. We know what's going on. But
马上。你能解释一下吗？显然，我们都知道PHP是什么。我们知道是怎么回事。但是
37:44
for anybody who doesn't know this stuff, can you explain what happened last week and why it made
对于任何不了解这些东西的人，你能解释一下上周发生了什么以及为什么它引起了
37:49
everybody who works in information securities life hell for the, I mean, it continues to be hell.
每个做信息安全的人日子都难熬得要命，我是说，现在依然是地狱。
37:54
Well, look, look, I think the way I like to think about it is how the entire, let's say, internet
好吧，你看，你看，我觉得我喜欢这样来理解它，就是整个，比如说，互联网
38:01
and infrastructure that computers run on to this point is pretty Byzantine and built on a lot of
而计算机运行所依赖的基础设施到现在为止相当复杂繁琐，建立在很多
38:07
old code that has, let's say, a lot of holes and stuff in it, right? And that's, that's just the
那些老代码，里面有很多漏洞之类的东西，对吧？而那只是，那只是
38:13
nature of computing. You figure out what are called bones vulnerabilities and you fix them over time.
计算的本质。你找出所谓的bones漏洞，然后随着时间推移把它们修复。
38:19
You know, Microsoft has dozens of fixes to their main software a year now. It's ranging up into
你知道，Microsoft现在每年对他们的主要软件有几十个修复。这个数字已经上升到
38:25
hundreds because AI is finding more of them. What happened though? Black October is not trying
数百个，因为AI正在发现更多。但发生了什么？黑色十月并不是在试图
38:32
to get a Furby for your shopping for your kids. That was like, come on. Was that on the spot?
为了给孩子买东西，你还得去弄个Furby。那感觉就像，拜托。那是临时想的吗？
38:39
I'm going to do better. I hope it worked. We're on squishies now, Mike. It's dumplings
我会做得更好。希望成功了。我们现在在聊squishies，Mike。是饺子
38:44
squishies. My son did his, his birthday wishlist this week and dumpling squishies. That's the big,
捏捏乐。我儿子这周做了他的生日愿望清单，饺子捏捏乐。就是那个大热的，
38:51
I'm showing my lack of children on this podcast. So it is, it is, it is essentially a vulnerability
我在这档播客里暴露了我没有孩子这件事。所以它本质上是一种脆弱性。
39:01
that goes far wider than just any one little system tweak that you have to update your individual
这远远超出了任何单个小系统调整的范围，不是你去更新你个人的那种
39:07
software on. This is stuff that, you know, folks in the industry said could break the internet,
软件已经上线了。这就是那种，你知道，业内人士说可能会搞垮互联网的东西，
39:12
it could like affect how we get on websites and use websites and have them be, have our accounts
它可能会影响我们如何访问网站、使用网站，以及让我们的账户
39:18
take it over. It was like, it's much wider. My big takeaway is like, this is the type of stuff that's
接管它。感觉像是，范围要广得多。我最大的收获是，这就是那种
39:23
going to be much easier and more commonplace to find in the age of AI where you can have these
在AI时代，这些会变得容易得多，也更常见，你可以拥有这些
39:28
programs just scrape the internet and on that. We should say specifically what we're talking. So
programs just scrape the internet and on that. We should say specifically what we're talking. So
39:32
PHP is a programming language that who that God, this is every time I start writing like this,
PHP是一种编程语言，谁那个上帝，这是我每次开始这样写的时候，
39:37
I think about the dozens of men with huge beards that are going to be struggling and emailing
我觉得会有几十个大胡子的男人会很挣扎地发邮件
39:43
me the meanest things. You see why? I'm so sorry. I'm not like you, them or my friends. Like, I'm
我最刻薄的话。你明白为什么吗？我很抱歉。我不像你、他们或我的朋友们。就像，我
39:47
thinking about specific people who are going to be like texting me about how wrong. PHP is a
想着那些具体的人会发消息跟我说PHP有多错。
39:51
programming language that's used on a ton of different websites. And it is, as Mike is saying,
一种在很多不同网站上都在用的编程语言。而且正如Mike所说，
39:56
it's much easier to find vulnerabilities in these sort of infrastructural languages with AI,
用AI在这些基础设施类的语言中找漏洞要容易得多，
40:01
which can sort of run a bunch of different ideas and figure out what, you know, what the exact
它可以同时跑一堆不同的想法，然后搞清楚到底什么，你知道，什么才是确切的
40:05
problems are. And when that happens, all of a sudden you have these really intense,
问题就来了。而当这种情况发生时，突然间你就有了这些非常强烈的，
40:09
really serious vulnerabilities that now need to be fixed, not from the top down, but across
现在确实存在一些非常严重的漏洞需要修复，不是自上而下，而是全面地去解决
40:14
the bazillion websites. And so, you know, I don't want to make this podcast about me, but on one day
无数的网站。所以，你知道，我不想把这个播客变成关于我自己的，但上周有一天
40:20
last week I do a daily logic puzzle called Clues by Sam. And Clues, I wasn't able to record my
我每天都会玩一个叫Clues by Sam的逻辑谜题。而Clues，那天我没能记录我的
40:25
score that day because because Sam was fixing the PHP. Like the real victim. Well, you know, I'm just
分数，因为Sam在修PHP。就像真正的受害者。嗯，你知道，我只是
40:32
trying to bring this down to earth for everybody listening. So they really understand what's going on.
想让大家都能理解这件事。这样他们才能真正明白发生了什么。
40:35
I mean, imagine if you couldn't do your wardle every day, that is what you need to be.
我是说，想象一下如果你每天不能玩你的Wordle，那就是你需要成为的。
40:42
I mean, are you talking to people? Are you guys talking to people who are who are in the midst of
我是说，你在跟人交流吗？你们在跟那些正处于
40:45
this? Like, I'm interested in in, in whether this is like either from the perspective of cybersecurity
这个？就像，我感兴趣的是，这个是不是从网络安全的角度来看
40:51
people or from AI people in general, like how much we think this is just the new normal that every
人们或者一般来说AI圈的人，就是我们认为这在多大程度上只是新的常态，每个
40:55
month is now just, you know, 85 hour weeks for people who work in security. And, and all the AI
现在这一个月，你知道的，对做安全的人来说就是每周85小时的工作量。而且，还有所有那些AI
41:01
companies throwing up their hands and being like, we told you so. I mean, I love to hear what
companies throwing up their hands and being like, we told you so. I mean, I love to hear what
41:06
you guys think, but I think the flip side or the counter argument and this kind of happened in
你们觉得呢，但我认为另一面或者说反方观点是，而这种情况确实发生在
41:10
the open versus closed source debate a few weeks or months ago was like, well, guess what? AI
几周或几个月前那场开源与闭源的争论，就像是在说，你猜怎么着？AI
41:16
is also going to enable us to solve all these problems and to quickly defend against them and
这也将使我们能够解决所有这些问题，并迅速防御它们，并且
41:21
to fix them faster. And these vulnerabilities already existed. It was only a matter of time for
更快地修复它们。而这些漏洞本来就已存在。只是时间问题，迟早会
41:26
someone to find them. So there are arguments from folks saying these fixes can happen. We just
有人来找到它们。所以有人提出论点说这些修复是可以实现的。我们只是
41:34
sort of need to enlist the advanced tools we have now to fix them faster, rather than, you know,
有点需要利用我们现在拥有的先进工具来更快地修复它们，而不是，你知道，
41:41
random websites across the internet not being able to do that in enough time. But like, I don't
互联网上的随机网站无法在足够的时间内做到这一点。但是就像，我不
41:46
know, that feels a little rosy to me. I do feel like we're going to just see this more often
你知道，这在我看来有点过于乐观了。我确实觉得我们会更频繁地看到这种情况
41:51
and the old internet breaking much faster than than before is my point of view at least.
而旧互联网崩溃得比以前快得多，至少这是我的观点。
41:59
I mean, one of the crazier news stories from this week that I thought about was that startup
我是说，这周我想到的比较疯狂的新闻故事之一，是那家创业公司
42:04
cathedral made of ex-doge staffer. So our nation's best and brightest, literally hacking into
cathedral，由前doge员工组成的。所以我们国家最优秀最聪明的人，简直是黑进了
42:09
anthropic Slack and IT systems. And anthropic is supposed to be the ones that are building the best
anthropic的Slack和IT系统。而anthropic本应是那些在构建最好的
42:15
cyber defense internal models that they can't even release to the public. And yet their own technical
网络防御内部模型、却甚至不能公开发布的人。然而他们自己的技术
42:20
systems were not secure enough to be able to block this crew of like young startup guides
系统却不够安全，无法阻止这群像年轻创业公司向导一样的人
42:26
from accessing trade secrets in their Slack. And so I don't even think, you know, before I would
从他们的Slack里获取商业机密。所以我都甚至不觉得，你知道，在我之前会
42:31
have thought like, man, some, you know, municipal governments are going to really struggle if they get
想过，天哪，有些，你知道，市政府如果真的拿到的话会非常吃力
42:37
hacked by some people with an open source model. But now it's actually like the best and most AI
被一些人用开源模型给黑了。但现在它实际上算是最好、最AI的
42:43
forward companies in the world are also as vulnerable. That's a great point. It's going to be
世界上最前沿的公司也同样脆弱。这是一个很好的观点。这将会是
42:50
a very long few years, I think. I mean, I think the argument, I read a great piece that I want to
可以说，这几年感觉特别漫长。我是说，我觉得这个论点，我读到了一篇很好的文章，我想
42:54
recommend by Joshua Sacks, who's a former meta AI guy. And his argument is basically that we are
推荐人是Joshua Sacks，他是前Meta AI的人。他的论点基本上是，我们正在
43:00
as bad as it seems. We are still in a sort of defender's window, defender dominant window
并没有看起来那么糟。我们仍然处于一种防守方的窗口期，防守方占主导的窗口期
43:06
that even though there's all these vulnerabilities being discovered, it in fact, I mean, his point
尽管有所有这些漏洞被发现，事实上，我的意思是，他的观点
43:11
which I admire because I think it's true is that it takes cyber criminals actually a very long
我很欣赏，因为我认为这是对的，那就是网络犯罪分子实际上需要很长时间
43:15
time to like figure out how to do their jobs because generally speaking, they're not that smart and
才能搞清楚如何完成他们的工作，因为一般来说，他们没那么聪明，
43:20
they're not that competent at like running businesses. So we have, you know, a certain period where
他们在经营业务方面也没那么有能力。所以我们有一段，你知道的，特定的时期
43:24
we can lock down defenses and, you know, prevent certainly on the, on the level of cyber crime,
我们可以锁定防御，并且，你知道的，至少在网络犯罪的层面上加以阻止，
43:30
protect against some of the worst vulnerabilities. But he says on the other hand, you know, this is not
保护一些最严重的漏洞。但他说另一方面，你知道，这不是
43:35
a wholly positive story. You know, we're still thinking about nation state actors that have the
一个完全正面的故事。你知道，我们还在考虑那些民族国家行为者，他们有的
43:40
resources and the will and desire to, as Jasmine says, like hack into municipal government infrastructure
资源和意愿，以及欲望，正如Jasmine所说，去黑进市政府的基础设施
43:46
and whatever else. So I suspect this is not the last time we're going to be talking about AI
以及其他等等。所以我怀疑这不会是我们最后一次谈论AI
43:51
discover vulnerabilities on this podcast. Great. That's exactly. Go back to Hawaii Mike. That's where
在这个播客上发现漏洞。太好了。正是如此。回到Hawaii Mike。那就是
43:59
that's, there's, there's nothing there's nothing left there. The one, the last thing I want to talk
就是，那里什么都没有了，什么都没有剩下了。那个，我最后想说的
44:05
about is the sort of, I felt like it flew under the radar amidst a bunch of other news this week.
about 是那种，我觉得它在这周一堆其他新闻里被忽略了。
44:11
But Microsoft offered biopackages to 60,000 people. Aaron, what did you make of that? Yeah. Well,
但Microsoft向6万人提供了biopackages。Aaron，你怎么看这件事？是的。嗯，
44:15
I mean, that is an enormous number. And when you put in perspective of the fact that, you know,
我的意思是，那是一个巨大的数字。当你把它放在这样一个事实的背景下来看，你知道，
44:21
Microsoft has like 230,000 employees, it just reminds you of how enormous these companies are.
微软有23万名员工，这让你意识到这些公司有多么庞大。
44:28
But just to be clear, biopackages doesn't mean 60,000 people are going to take them. They expect
但要说清楚，biopackages并不意味着会有6万人去服用它们。他们预计
44:35
3 to 3 to 5% of their employees to actually take them. So in reality, it's going to be like
3%到3%到5%的员工真正会去用它们。所以实际上，大概会是
44:39
at most probably 3000 layoffs. But that's still so many. And I feel like to your point, Max,
最多大概3000人裁员。但那还是太多了。而且我觉得就像你说的，Max，
44:48
over the last three, four years, we've just become so numb to these rolling layoffs from
在过去的三四年里，我们对这些一轮又一轮的裁员已经变得如此麻木，来自
44:54
the giant tech companies because that is just the new reality that started kind of after the
那些大型科技公司，因为这就是新的现实，大概是在那之后开始的
44:59
Zerb era kind of deflated all these tech companies that got super bloated because they thought they
Zerb时代某种程度上让所有这些科技公司泄了气，它们变得超级臃肿，因为它们以为自己
45:04
needed a million engineers decided, okay, now we're just going to like kind of be in this
需要一百万工程师，然后决定，好吧，现在我们就差不多要进入这种状态
45:09
environment where we just like cut a thousand people every six months or something. And tech used
一个我们每六个月就裁掉一千人左右的环境。还有tech used
45:15
to be this cushy job, especially at a place like Microsoft, which is very geographically focused,
这份工作这么轻松，尤其是在微软这样的地方，非常受地域限制，
45:22
where you can just like have a 30-year career. And there are a lot of people at companies like
在那里你可以拥有30年的职业生涯。而且在像这样的公司里有很多人
45:27
Microsoft, Amazon, even like Google and Facebook, which are a little bit younger that have been
Microsoft、Amazon，甚至像Google和Facebook这些稍微年轻一点的公司，它们一直
45:31
there for so long. And that is no longer the case. That is, you know, maybe a sign of what's to
在那里待了那么久。而现在情况已经不同了。也就是说，你知道，这也许是……的一个迹象
45:38
come for the rest of the economy because tech is sort of always a little bit out ahead on workplace
来关注经济的其余部分，因为科技在工作场所方面总是稍微领先一点
45:43
trends as well. So that's a little bit depressing. And I guess the other thing that I'll add is like
趋势也是如此。所以这有点让人沮丧。然后我想补充的另一件事是，就像
45:49
something that it's like kind of darkly funny about the announcement, which is that the Microsoft
关于这个公告有一点挺黑色幽默的，就是微软
45:54
said it was part of their efforts to give employees more control over their future.
说这是他们努力让员工对自己的未来有更多掌控权的一部分。
45:59
What the? That's not the control. Really, really, really grim.
什么鬼？那不是控制。真的，真的，真的很糟糕。
46:07
The silver lining in there, I would say as far as you're like harbinger of what's to come,
我想说的是，这里面的一线希望，就你作为未来事物的预兆而言，
46:11
is like a lot of this is because of their AI spin and infrastructure spin. And so like
这很大程度上是因为他们的AI spin和infrastructure spin。所以就像
46:17
perhaps like except whatever, Accenture, some like giant employer that's not spending billions
也许像除了什么的，Accenture，一些像巨型雇主那样不花数十亿的
46:22
of dollars per quarter on AI is not going to do the same level of layoffs. They're just going to
每季度在AI上花几十亿美元的公司，不会进行同等规模的裁员。他们只会
46:27
use the tools to justify different types of layoffs and lesser numbers.
用这些工具来为不同类型的裁员和更少的裁员人数找理由。
46:30
Oh my god. Mike Accenture is the worst example because like, there's any company in the world
天哪。Mike，Accenture是最糟糕的例子，因为世界上如果有哪家公司
46:34
that's going to be fully taken out by AI is consultants, right?
会被AI完全干掉，那就是咨询公司，对吧？
46:38
I'm sorry. Good lord. See, I'm going to get taken out by AI because I can't even think of a good
抱歉。天哪。你看，我才会被AI干掉，因为我连一个好
46:42
company. No, actually your mistakes is that's that's what makes you human. That's what that's what
公司都想不出来。不，实际上你的错误恰恰是——那正是让你成为人的地方。那正是——那正是
46:46
people love. Okay, on that cheery bit of news, we're going to go to break. When we come back,
大家很喜欢。好，就着这条令人愉快的消息，我们要进入广告时间了。广告之后，
46:51
we're going to be talking about stories that we're tracking this week.
我们会聊聊本周我们在追踪的一些新闻。
47:06
Hi, this is Carolyn Ryan, managing editor of The New York Times.
嗨，我是Carolyn Ryan，《纽约时报》的执行编辑。
47:10
At the times we strive to help everyone stay informed and at this critical moment, we're making
在时报，我们努力帮助每个人保持知情，在这个关键时刻，我们把
47:15
all of our election coverage free in our app. We have more than 100 reporters out there talking
所有选举报道在我们的app上免费开放。我们有100多名记者在外面与
47:20
to voters, seeing what drives them, helping you figure out what's going on. On election night,
选民交谈，了解他们的驱动力，帮助你搞清楚到底发生了什么。在选举之夜，
47:25
we are the place to go for race results. Our maps are updated minute by minute. Come experience
我们是获取比赛结果的首选之地。我们的地图每分钟更新一次。快来体验吧
47:31
all of our election coverage for free right now in The New York Times app.
我们现在在《纽约时报》app上免费提供所有选举报道。
47:38
Welcome back. I'm with Aaron Jasmine and Mike and we're going to be talking about stories
欢迎回来。我和Aaron Jasmine还有Mike在一起，我们要聊聊一些故事
47:41
that we're tracking this week. Mike, what story are you tracking this week?
这是我们本周在追踪的。Mike，你本周在追踪什么新闻？
47:46
So I, this is kind of nerdy, but that's my thing. I found this memo from the VP and distinguished
所以我，这有点宅，但这就是我的风格。我发现了这封来自VP和杰出
47:54
engineer at Amazon this week that most normal people are not tracking, but I think it's really
这周亚马逊的一位工程师，大多数普通人并没有在关注，但我觉得这真的
48:00
interesting because it's essentially a very long manifesto on the use of AI among software
有意思，因为它本质上是一篇关于AI在软件中应用的非常长的宣言
48:06
engineers inside of the big companies. And what they essentially cop to is token maxing is kind
大公司内部的工程师们。而他们基本上承认的就是，token maxing 是一种……
48:12
of a terrible metric to measure how you're doing as an engineer. As is LOC lines of code, the amount
作为一个衡量你作为工程师表现的糟糕指标。就像LOC代码行数，那个数量
48:21
code you are contributing building these products, also a messy metric, which basically means you're
你贡献的代码、你在构建这些产品，这也是一个很混乱的指标，基本上意味着你
48:27
larding up these systems with a bunch of stuff that someone's going to eventually have to delete.
给这些系统塞一大堆东西，早晚有人得去删。
48:32
And so in this long memo, they essentially tell employees, look, what we care about are long term
所以在这份长长的备忘录里，他们基本上是在告诉员工，看，我们关心的是长期
48:38
outcomes. This is like what really matters in the end. And this is what, you know, we need to be
结果。这就像最终真正重要的东西。这就是，你知道，我们需要成为的
48:42
judged by. The problem is, you can't really judge how long term outcomes on a quarterly basis
judged by。问题是，你没法真的按季度来评判长期结果。
48:48
when you're trying to figure out who should still be employed here. So I think after, you know,
当你在试图弄清楚这里谁还应该被留用时。所以我觉得在，你知道，
48:53
thousands of words, we end up kind of back where we started. And I'm very curious how they judge
thousands of words，我们最后又回到了起点。我很好奇他们是怎么评判的
48:57
these engineers in the coming quarters. I mean, that's so interesting because I feel like when the
在接下来的几个季度里，这些工程师。我是说，这太有意思了，因为我觉得当那个
49:02
token maxing trend started, everyone with any common sense was just kind of like, this seems absurd.
token maxing 的趋势开始了，任何有点常识的人都只是觉得，这看起来太荒谬了。
49:09
Yeah. Like spending as much money as possible to write as much code as possible, like playing the
是啊。就像尽可能花更多的钱写尽可能多的代码，玩那种
49:15
volume game, just obviously that's going to end badly. And we call it all new as a short term
拼数量的游戏，显然这不会有好结果。我们把它全叫做短期
49:20
bump and the token miniting or whatever they call it, the reverse of that trend happened so
提振，还有token铸造什么的他们怎么叫来着，那个趋势的反转来得太
49:27
fast. Like the time we could barely get our first story up. It was already reversed. But like,
快了。快到我们第一篇报道还没发出来，就已经反转了。但看起来
49:32
it seems like they're still struggling to figure out where the balance is. Is that like your
他们还在苦苦摸索平衡点在哪里。这算是你从这件事里得出的
49:37
kind of your upshot from this? Well, what better metaphor for the tech industry than spending
结论吗？嗯，还有什么比这更好的比喻来形容科技行业呢，就是花
49:41
billions of dollars to find out something is a terrible idea and ending up back where you started.
花了几十亿美元才发现某个想法糟糕透顶，最后又回到了原点。
49:47
They're in the arena trying things, Mike. Yeah. That's true. I mean, this is, I have to say,
他们在竞技场里尝试各种东西，Mike。是的。没错。我是说，这个，我得说，
49:52
this you say this is nerdy, but this feels like the most relatable possible thing to me. Everybody
你说这很书呆子气，但对我来说这感觉是最能产生共鸣的事了。每个人
49:57
has a job where they introduce a new metric and you know the metric's stupid and you fulfill
有一个工作岗位，他们引入了一个新指标，你知道这个指标很蠢，但你还是去完成它
50:01
the metric and then your bosses are like, actually, we're going to do the opposite metric. And so you
然后那个指标，接着你的老板们就说，实际上，我们要做相反的指标。所以你
50:04
do that and you're like, this is still stupid. And then they're like, then they're sort of like
这么做之后你会觉得，这还是蠢。然后他们就会说，然后他们有点像
50:08
actually our metric is the long term health of the company and you're like, well, I'm still just
其实我们的指标是公司的长期健康度，然后你就说，好吧，我还是只是
50:12
going to do my job. Max, you're self-employed. What are you talking about?
我要做好我的工作。Max，你是自雇的。你在说什么？
50:17
You are your own boss. Well, I am also self-hating. Jasmine, what are you tracking this week?
你是你自己的老板。嗯，我也是自我厌恶型的。Jasmine，你这周在关注什么？
50:24
Oh, man. I saw that this new researcher port that a team at Anthropic put out. They did a
哦，天哪。我看到Anthropic的一个团队发布的这个新研究员port。他们做了一个
50:30
randomized controlled trial trying to understand how much experts defer to AI systems. So they basically
一项随机对照试验，试图了解专家在多大程度上会听从AI系统的判断。所以他们基本上
50:36
gave a bunch of professional like statistical analysts access to AI's to give them advice on a
给了一堆像统计分析师这样的专业人士访问AI的权限，让AI给他们提供关于a的建议
50:41
decision in a scenario. And what they found was that not only did the experts, I think over 80%
在一个场景中做决策。他们发现，不仅专家们，我认为超过80%
50:47
of the time make the same decision as the AI, which were split half half, they also over 70%
有时会做出与AI相同的决定，这些决定各占一半，他们也超过70%
50:52
of the time use the AI's arguments to justify their decision. But only 15% of the time did they
有55%的时间会用AI的论点来为自己的决定辩护。但只有15%的情况下他们
50:58
say, oh, yeah, I was influenced by this AI agent. And so we have this world, which I think is one
比如说，哦对，我受到了这个AI agent的影响。所以我们有了这个世界，我觉得这是一个
51:04
that we're going to be increasingly where humans are oftentimes almost becoming like rappers on AI
我们会越来越处于这样一种状态：人类常常几乎变成了AI上的说唱歌手
51:11
agents and AI systems where like all we're doing is like being the faces and like typing the
agents和AI系统，就像我们所做的一切就是当门面，然后打字什么的
51:16
thoughts. And like I feel like what like there's all this concern about AI takeover and rogue AI's.
想法。而且我觉得，好像有这么多关于AI接管和失控AI的担忧。
51:21
And I think that a lot of the times we're just going to let the AI take over because we'll just be
而且我觉得很多时候我们就是会让AI接管，因为我们会
51:25
out sort of singular decisions and we won't even realize. So that's what I'm worried about.
做出一些单一的决策，而我们甚至都不会意识到。所以这就是我担心的。
51:30
That is a jury thought. I mean, as somebody who professionally takes other people's opinions and
这真是个陪审团式的想法。我是说，作为一个职业上拿别人的观点
51:34
repeats them as though they were my own. Like I do kind of sympathize. It's just usually the people
当成自己的来重复的人。我确实有点同情。只不过通常
51:39
I'm stealing from are people, not, you know, not artificial intelligence. You both say that like AI
我偷的那些人是人，不是，你知道，不是人工智能。你们俩说这话就好像AI
51:43
makes everybody a manager. Like here we are. Exactly. That's exactly. This is exactly what man at first
让每个人都成为管理者。就像我们现在这样。没错。就是这样。这正是最初那个人
51:48
do. Wow. Aaron, what about you? What are you tracking? So I cover venture capital as, as you know,
做。哇。Aaron，你呢？你在关注什么？你知道的，我是报道风险投资的，所以
51:56
and and one of the most famous firms, injuries and horowitz recently made a big change to the
而最著名的公司之一，injuries and horowitz最近做了一个重大改变，关于
52:03
branding and the name of one of their sub funds, which is their A16Z crypto fund. They're one of
branding以及他们其中一个子基金的名字，也就是他们的A16Z crypto fund。他们是其中之一
52:09
the biggest crypto boosters and have been for many years. But now they are going by A16Z
最大的crypto助推者，而且多年来一直如此。但现在他们改名叫A16Z了
52:15
frontier. And this was pretty notable to me. I mean, a hard fork listeners might remember
frontier。这对我来说挺值得注意的。我是说，hard fork的听众可能还记得
52:22
critics and their top crypto investor coming on for an interview a few years back talking about,
批评者以及他们的顶级加密货币投资者几年前来做采访，谈到，
52:28
you know, the importance of the blockchain and crypto for the future of the internet. And so
你知道，blockchain和crypto对于互联网未来的重要性。所以
52:32
this would kind of make it look like they're backing away from that promise and that's kind of
这有点像是让人觉得他们在背弃那个承诺，而且这有点
52:38
a thing that happens in VC a lot where, you know, VCs chase trends and they change. And you know,
风投圈经常发生的一件事就是，你知道，风投追逐趋势，而且他们会变。然后你知道，
52:44
it's not just a trend chasing business. It's also a marketing business because all money's kind
这不仅仅是追逐潮流的生意。这也是一门营销生意，因为所有的钱都是善的
52:49
of the same. And so in order to stand out and get the entrepreneurs to come to you, you have to kind
同样的。所以为了脱颖而出并让创业者来找你，你必须有点
52:54
of put a stake in the ground and say like, this is what we're interested in or this is what we're
可以明确表个态说，这就是我们感兴趣的，或者这就是我们
52:59
really excited about for the future. And so they were really, really big bowls on crypto. And they,
对未来真的非常兴奋。所以他们非常非常看好crypto。而且他们，
53:05
of course, despite the fact that crypto is super out of vote right now and that like, you know,
当然，尽管现在 crypto 超级不受待见，而且就像，你知道的，
53:09
something like 80, 90% of all VC dollars are basically going to AI. They have, you know, been very
大概80%、90%的VC资金基本上都流向了AI。他们，你知道，一直非常
53:15
careful to say we're not backing away from crypto. We're just expanding our mandate. It's just
小心点说，我们并没有放弃crypto。我们只是在扩大我们的授权范围。只是
53:21
an all frontier now. Yes. Yeah. And like, this is something that other crypto funds have also been
现在全是前沿领域了。是的。对。而且，这也是其他加密基金也一直在
53:27
doing. They're not alone in this. There's a fun called paradigm that, you know, was started by
正在做。他们在这方面并不孤单。有一个叫paradigm的基金，你知道，是由
53:30
Sequoia investor. In 2023, they very famously removed some of the crypto language from their website
红杉投资人。2023年，他们非常出名地从网站上删除了一些crypto相关的措辞
53:36
and people noticed and freaked out. I will say a big part of it is that there's probably just not
然后人们注意到了，就慌了。我得说很大一部分原因可能是根本就没有
53:43
that many people building crypto, investable crypto startups right now because everyone wants to build
现在有那么多人在做crypto，有那么多可投资的crypto创业公司，因为每个人都想去做
53:49
an AI. So it kind of is necessary. Like the crypto industries, like one of their many problems with
一个AI。所以这算是必要的。就像加密货币行业，就像他们众多问题中的一个
53:55
crypto is that without the hype, without the number going up, there's just less people that are
crypto就是，没有那些炒作、没有数字往上涨，人就少了很多
53:59
interested in like working in this industry and building on this industry. So like in order to
对在这个行业工作、在这个行业里做东西感兴趣。所以就像为了
54:03
find the opportunities to like deploy billions of dollars into startups, you have to kind of like
找到机会，比如把数十亿美元部署到初创公司里，你就得有点像
54:08
change your mandate. Yeah. When, when crypto is two talks, like even for Andrewson Harwitz, that's
改变你的使命。是的。当，当 crypto 是两场演讲时，就像即使对 Andrewson Harwitz 来说，那也是
54:12
when you know the vibe is shifted. I mean, here at HardFork, we embrace our crypto nominated barge.
当你知道氛围已经变了。我是说，在HardFork这里，我们拥抱我们被crypto提名的驳船。
54:17
That's right. Our roots to block those. We'll be sticking with this name forever.
没错。我们扎根于此来阻挡那些。我们会永远沿用这个名字。
54:24
Wow. Well, guys, thank you for coming through. This has been a really fun discussion. I'm so glad to have
哇。好了，各位，谢谢你们能来。这真是一场非常有趣的讨论。我很高兴能请到
54:29
you on. I hope you all come back soon. This has been Mike Isaac, Jasmine Son, Aaron Griffith.
你上线了。希望你们大家很快回来。我是Mike Isaac、Jasmine Son、Aaron Griffith。
54:32
I'm Max Reed. Thank you for listening. This episode of HardFork was produced by Whitney Jones
我是Max Reed。感谢收听。本期HardFork由Whitney Jones制作
54:54
and Sawyer Roquet and edited by Viren Povitch with additional editorial support from Brendan
由Sawyer Roquet翻译，Viren Povitch编辑，Brendan提供额外编辑支持
54:59
Klinkenberg, Lisa Tobin, and Brooke Minters. We were fact-checked by Will Peishel and engineered by
Klinkenberg、Lisa Tobin 和 Brooke Minters。我们的内容由 Will Peishel 进行事实核查，并由
55:04
Daniel Ramirez, original music by Marion Luzano, Alyssa Moxley and Dan Powell. Additional video
Daniel Ramirez，原创音乐由 Marion Luzano、Alyssa Moxley 和 Dan Powell 制作。额外视频
55:11
production by Chris Shaw. You can watch this full episode on YouTube at youtube.com slash HardFork.
制作：Chris Shaw。你可以在YouTube上观看完整集，网址是youtube.com斜杠HardFork。
55:17
Special thanks to Sam Dolnick, Jessica Testa, Hui Wang Tam, Maddie Masielo, Dave Mayers, Luke
特别感谢Sam Dolnick、Jessica Testa、Hui Wang Tam、Maddie Masielo、Dave Mayers、Luke
55:23
Mylander, Thomas Trudeau, Samantha Winter, Kyle Grangelo, Michael Cordero, and Dalia Hadad.
Mylander、Thomas Trudeau、Samantha Winter、Kyle Grangelo、Michael Cordero 和 Dalia Hadad。
55:29
We'd love to hear from our audience. If you have any questions or comments or want to give us a
我们很想听听观众的反馈。如果你有任何问题或评论，或者想给我们一个
55:32
piece of your mind, find us at nytime.com slash hardfort. You can also email us hardfork at nytime.com
piece of your mind，在 nytime.com slash hardfort 找到我们。你也可以发邮件给我们 hardfork at nytime.com